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Africa’s 2012 growth prospects appear bright, but downside risks could dampen momentum

Submitted by Punam Chuhan-Pole on Wed, 2012-02-01 15:24

Sub-Saharan African countries bucked the slowdown in the global economy and grew at a robust pace in 2011 (see Africia's Pulse, February 2012 Update).  


The region’s output expanded by an estimated 4.9 percent, faster than in 2010 and just shy of the pre-crisis (average of 2003-08) level of 5 percent.  Excluding South Africa, the regional growth rate was 5.9 percent.  Particularly notable is the fact that this growth was widespread:  over a third of countries posted 6 percent or higher growth; another 40 percent grew at between 4-6 percent.  Equally important is the fact that several countries saw sustained growth rates of over 6 percent a year in both 2010 and 2011.


So what can Sub-Saharan Africa expect in 2012?  Barring a serious deterioration in the global economy, the outlook for the region seems bright, with a pickup in GDP growth to 5.3 percent in 2012 and 5.6 percent in 2013.  High commodity prices and strong domestic demand, especially buoyant private consumption, are expected to sustain the expansion.


But these factors also point to Africa’s vulnerability. 

Creating a level playing field

Submitted by Wolfgang Fengler on Wed, 2012-02-08 14:41

Throughout the slums of this world, poor children are dreaming of becoming football stars and playing in the World Cup. Some of them from Kibera—Kenya’s largest slum—had a shot last weekend, when the International School of Kenya hosted the third “Mini World Cup”.


The event involved more than sixty teams made-up of Kenyan and international children from all walks of life. Two teams from Kibera made it to the top eight teams of the tournament, keeping their dream alive to win the “Cup” in one of the next years. The great thing about football is that all teams, no matter what their social background, have an equal opportunity to win. They start on a level playing field, and they all play by the same rules. When the final whistle blows, there is no reason why one of the teams from Kibera should not lift the Mini World Cup next time, just as Ghana’s Black Stars overcame Team USA in the 2010 World Cup, despite the huge disparity in wealth between the two nations.


In economic development, the equivalent of having a level playing field is equality of access to basic services.

Les effets de la crise en zone Euro sur la Zone franc: une perspective camerounaise

Submitted by Raju Jan Singh on Tue, 2012-02-07 15:40

For English, click here


Alors que les rebondissements de la crise de la dette souveraine se succèdent, beaucoup se demandent quelles pourraient être ses effets sur les économies de la zone franc, une partie de l’Afrique ayant gardé des relations étroites avec l’Europe, et en particulier la France. Dans le cas du Cameroun, la zone Euro demeure le plus grand marché pour les exportations camerounaises et abrite la communauté la plus importante de Camerounais à l’étranger.

The effects of the Euro zone crisis on the CFA franc zone: a View from Cameroon

Submitted by Raju Jan Singh on Tue, 2012-02-07 15:34

For French, click here.


As the sovereign debt crisis is unfolding, many are wondering what could be its effects on the economies of the CFA franc zone, a part of Africa with close relations with Europe, especially France. In the case of Cameroon, the Euro zone still represents the main market for the country’s exports and hosts the largest community of Cameroonians abroad.

La crise de la zone euro et ses impacts sur l’Afrique sub-saharienne

Submitted by Shanta on Thu, 2012-02-02 16:39

Lors d’une mission au Mali, j’ai présenté les constats du dernier « Pouls Africain » à un séminaire avec une centaine de participants, y inclus le ministre des finances du pays.   J’ai soulevé quatre points:


• Malgré le ralentissement de la croissance économique dans les pays développés, l’Afrique sub-saharienne a connu une continuation de la relance économique suite à la crise de 2008-9.  Le taux de croissance moyen du PIB pour l’année dernière était de 4.9 pourcent.