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Agriculture and Rural Development

Inorganic fertilizer use in Africa: Not too low but not too profitable -- Evidence from Nigeria

Saweda Liverpool-Tasie's picture

Inorganic fertilizer use is claimed to be low in sub-Saharan Africa, but it is unclear whether using higher rates of fertilizer would be profitable. My coauthors and I sought to explore the effect of nitrogen on maize in farms across Nigeria to find out.  To do this, we took advantage of the recently available Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture, or LSMS-ISA, a household survey project working to collect up to date agricultural data for the same household over time.
What did we find?   

Low yield response and high transport costs reduce fertilizer profitability 
We found that little extra maize production is expected from adding more nitrogen at the margin; that is, the marginal physical product (MPP) of applied nitrogen for maize production in Nigeria is quite low at 8kg.  Though within the range found in peer-reviewed published works, often between 7 and 14 kg, it is much lower than the potential yield response from plots on which research management protocols are being followed. These range between 14 to 50 kg maize per kg nitrogen (N) and even higher in some cases (Snapp et al, 2014).  This low yield response to nitrogen in Nigeria extends to other cereals such as rice (See figure 1).

Domestic factors drive maize price volatility in Burkina Faso, not external ones

Moctar NDiaye's picture

Food price volatility remains a pressing challenge for many African countries (FAO, IMF, and UNCTAD, 2011).  The vast majority of Africa’s population still derives a substantial share of their income from agriculture and low-income households allocate a large share of their budget to food (often more than 60 percent). As a result, large and unexpected swings in food prices cause substantial losses in welfare, and when adequate coping strategies are absent, it may even trap households permanently into poverty. It should thus not surprise that food price shocks still feature highly among the reported shocks by households in Sub-Saharan (Nikoloski, Christiaensen, Hill, 2015).

Among African policymakers, the main reasons for high food price volatility in the domestic markets is often thought to be external, i.e. “imported” from the world food markets. However, the sources may also be domestic, for example when markets are poorly integrated internally. Under the “Agriculture in Africa – Telling Facts from Myths project, data collected by the Société Nationale de Gestion du Stock Alimentaire (SONAGESS) on maize prices in 28 markets from Burkina Faso during the 2000s (July 2004-Nov 2013) were analyzed to tease out the extent to which maize price volatility is driven by domestic rather than external factors. Over the past decades, maize has become the most marketed and exported cereal in Burkina Faso. It now accounts for 31% of grain production, against only 7% three decades ago, and represents the second source of income for farmers, after cotton.

Counting Africa’s Rural Entrepreneurs

In recent years there has been a growing interest in small rural business development and entrepreneurship as conduits for accelerating job opportunities – for the youth and for poverty reduction. This holds particularly in Africa, where the youth bulge is challenging policymakers to generate jobs for an additional 170 million people who are expected to enter the labor force between 2010 and 2020 (Fox at al., 2013).

Among them, 38 percent are projected to work in household enterprises, amounting to around 65 million people. Studies show that jobs generated in the sectors where the poor work and places where the poor live, i.e. in the rural areas, are more effective at lifting them out of poverty.

But is this justified? If only small numbers of rural inhabitants are entrepreneurs, if they predominantly engage in low productive activities, or if they do not make significant contributions to household income, we need to be more skeptical with regard to the role of entrepreneurship. Or at least, we must more critically reconsider whether current supporting policies are appropriate or supportive enough.
 

Agricultural Input Use in Africa – Revisiting our Meager Evidence Base

One of the most common assumptions underlying current policy and development interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa is that the use of all modern agricultural inputs – like chemical fertilizer, improved seed varieties, irrigation, agro-chemicals, and machinery – remains dismally low. But when you examine the evidence underlying this basic claim, it’s easy to feel misled. Most of the well-perpetuated numbers we hear about are from highly aggregated macro-data sources while others are derived from small or purposively chosen samples. Even further, many of the studies that continue to be cited are a decade or two old and may no longer be accurate in an environment influenced by pledges made via the Abuja Declaration on fertilizer.

So what’s a policy analyst to do when the evidence base is likely problematic? Just wish and hope that more appropriate data existed? For a set of eight countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the wait is over. The Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Surveys on Agriculture now provide nationally representative and highly disaggregated data from farmers’ agricultural plots to help rebase our understanding of African agriculture and rural spaces.

Killing the Zombie Statistic: Women Contribute 60-80 Percent of Labor in African Agriculture

Luc Christiaensen's picture
How much of the work do women contribute to agriculture in Africa? Over the past decades, “60-80 percent” is the range that has regularly popped up--in celebrity speeches, policy conferences and international publications alike. This is what the Washington Post most recently referred to as a zombie statistic – a figure with little empirical verification that never seems to die out, but resurrects itself repeatedly in discussions and debates. Some forensics suggest that the figure can  be traced back to an undocumented, 1972 quote found in a more general study of women’s contribution to development,   “Few persons would argue against the estimate that women are responsible for 60-80 [percent] of the agricultural labour supplied on the continent of Africa.” (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 1972, p. 359). It has gone on to live its own life ever since. Intrigued by this rather unusually high number, we set out to revisit this statistic using nationally-representative data from six Sub-Saharan countries,  collected under the Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture Initiative (LSMS-ISA). Together, they represent 40 percent of SSA’s population.

 

Agriculture in Africa – Telling Facts from Myths

Luc Christiaensen's picture
One third of Africa’s food goes lost after it is harvested. Women’s labor contribution in African agriculture is regularly quoted in the range of 60 to 80 percent. Labor is 2 to 4 times more productive outside agriculture.  These are just some of the factoids that shape our thinking about African agriculture and that drive policy.

However, the statistical foundations of Africa’s economic growth and poverty reduction narratives are increasingly being questioned. Shantayanan Devarajan, the World Bank’s former Chief Economist for the Africa Region, spoke of “Africa’s statistical tragedy” (after its growth tragedy of the 1990s), while Morten Jerven drew our attention to the challenges Africa faces in producing reliable national accounts.

When it comes to agriculture, the problems only multiply, with maize yield estimates, for example, varying substantially depending on the data source (by about 1 ton per ha between 1.7 and 2.6 ton/ha in Malawi in 2006/7). Clearly, tracking progress, even on some of the most elementary statistics for agricultural policymaking, is a challenge. So, what about the reliability of our common wisdom and policy direction which is often supported by references to the type of statistical factoids quoted above? Are we flying blind or vision impaired?

Qui apportera de la valeur ajoutée à l’Afrique ? Qui soignera ? Qui construira ?

Andreas Blom's picture
Also available in: English

 Dasan Bobo/World Bank​En tant qu’économiste, spécialisé dans le secteur de l’éducation à la Banque mondiale, je passe souvent en revue  de nombreuses stratégies pays ou sectorielles dissertant sur la meilleure façon de développer l’Afrique et d’y atteindre une croissance économique élevée.
 
Et à chaque fois je me demande: mais qui le fera ? Qui apportera de la valeur ajoutée aux exportations africaines ? Qui construira ? Qui inventera ? Qui soignera ?
La réponse est évidente : ce sont les jeunes fraîchement diplômés des universités africaines et des instituts de formation. Certes, mais dans ce cas nous avons un problème : il n’y a tout simplement pas assez de diplômés en sciences, en technologie, en ingénierie et en mathématiques (STIM) à l’heure actuelle sur le continent et la qualité des formations est très inégale.

Who will add value in Africa? Who will cure? Who will build?

Andreas Blom's picture
Also available in: Français

 Dasan Bobo/World Bank​From my seat as an Education economist at the World Bank, I go through a number of strategies from countries and sectors in Africa outlining how best to achieve economic growth and development. I am repeatedly struck by a key question: Who will do it? Who will add value to African exports? Who will build? Who will invent? Who will cure? The answer is, of course, that graduates from African universities and training institutions should do it. But the problem is one of numbers and quality—there are simply not enough graduates in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM), and programs are of uneven quality.
 

Science, Technology and Innovation in Agriculture is Pivotal for Africa’s Overdue Transformation

John Kofi Agyekum Kufuor's picture
The persistence of poverty and food insecurity on the African continent is a major developmental challenge, both for Africans and the international development community. 
 
History shows that investments in agriculture can be a catalytic force in the fight against hunger, poverty and malnutrition and a well-performing farm economy can be an instrument for achieving sustained structural economic transformation. Agricultural growth was the precursor to industrial growth in Europe and, more recently through the Green Revolution, in large parts of Asia and Latin America.  The Green Revolution bypassed Africa.

When I was elected President of the Republic of Ghana in 2000, agriculture was a mainstay of the nation’s economy, accounting for 35% of its GDP, 55% of employment and 75% of export revenues. But it was a lagging, orphan sector, suffering from decades of neglect and lack of investment. Ghana’s agriculture had sadly changed little from the kind practiced generations ago.  Farmers were still eking out a living, tilling the land by hand, much like their ancestors.  
 
The World Bank’s new Agriculture Global Practice hosted President Kufuor and his colleagues from the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA).  Here, Yemi Akinbamijo, Executive Director, argues that science has unbounded potential to contribute to Africa’s agricultural transformation for the benefit of all Africans and the environment.
 
Photo credit: A’Melody Lee


Expanding Africa’s Digital Frontier: Farmers Show the Way

Aparajita Goyal's picture



Agricultural transformation is a priority for Africa. Across the continent, the significant information needs of farmers—accurate local weather forecasts, relevant advice on agricultural practices and input use, real time price information and market logistics—remain largely unmet. To the extent that rural regions are typically sparsely populated with limited infrastructure and dispersed markets, the use of innovative information and communication technologies (ICTs) overcome some of these information asymmetries and connect farmers to opportunities that weren't necessarily available to them earlier. Harnessing the rapid growth of digital technologies holds hope for transformative agricultural development. 

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