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January 2019

South Africa growth forecasts: Better to err on the side of caution

Marek Hanusch's picture
Forecast for South African 2018 GDP growth.

Following the change of political leadership early in 2018, South Africa was gripped by a wave of optimism. Analysts raised their growth forecasts for the year significantly (Figure 1). At the World Bank, we were more cautious, warning in our 11th South Africa Economic Update that South Africa’s growth challenges were deep-seated and structural and would take considerable policy action and time before translating into higher growth. Nevertheless, we too raised our forecast, to 1.4% for the year. Although this made our forecast one of the most pessimistic among South African observers, we were wrong: we were too optimistic! Like other economists, we now expect growth for 2018 to have averaged less than 1%.

Making extractives work for the people

Cari Votava's picture

In many countries, natural resources and extractive minerals are lucrative state assets that fail to contribute to economic prosperity. In resource-rich Africa, regulatory mismanagement, corruption and theft of natural resource and extractive commodities have contributed to illicit financial flows, poverty, instability and in some cases financed civil wars linked to conflicts over control of state assets.