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March 2009

Buddy, can you spare $20 billion?

How much additional foreign aid will it take to prevent the global financial crisis from becoming an economic, social, political and human crisis in Africa?

As my co-authors and I tried to point out in an earlier study of the additional aid needed to reach the Millennium Development Goals, this is not the most important question. Much more important are: (i) what developing country governments can do, and (ii) how the additional resources will be spent. Nevertheless, as world leaders gather for the G-20 summit outside London, the magnitude of additional resources to the world’s poorest continent will be discussed.

Do user fees increase or decrease access to basic services?

In a recent paper, Alaka Holla and Michael Kremer appear to resolve this controversial issue by surveying findings of a series of randomized evaluations. They conclude that user fees in health and education do reduce access. On page 33 of their 45-page paper, they mention that they have not looked at the impact of user fees on provider incentives. Yet this may be the crux of the debate. Everyone would be in favor of lowering or eliminating user fees if we could be sure that poor people would receive the services. But for various reasons having to do with government failures, the subsidies needed to ensure that these services are provided either don’t arrive or don’t provide sufficient incentives for providers to even show up for work. Poor people, desperate to get their children educated or treated in clinics, pay user fees out of necessity. We should be working on overcoming these government failures so that lowering user fees will, in fact, lead to better access and quality services.   

A fiscal stimulus for Africa?

There is no question that the global financial and economic crisis is affecting Africa’s economic performance. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts a GDP growth rate for Africa of 3.5 percent, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous forecast, and 1.9 percentage points below the 2008 growth rate. The growth forecast for primary commodity exporters is even lower; Angola, for instance, is projecting nominal GDP to be 17 percent lower in 2009 compared to 2008.  A growth slowdown in Africa can have serious long-term consequences.
In light of these developments and evidence, and given that the United States, Western Europe and China are all considering a major fiscal expansion (of the order of trillions of dollars), a natural question to ask is: “Should African countries also introduce a fiscal stimulus?” 

The answer is: “It depends.”

Truth and reconciliation through technology

Liberia, once one of the richest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, is now the second poorest country in the world, after 14 years of civil war left the country in ruins. Only recently--with the first democratically held election since the end of the war and intensive foreign aid flows--has Liberia begun showing positive signs towards economic and social recovery. Paving the way to recovery, The Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Liberia (TRC) was set up in 2005 by the interim government to investigate and report human rights violations that occurred during the civil conflict by providing a platform for both victims and perpetrators to share their experiences. But with all infrastructure having been destroyed, it has proved almost impossible for Liberians living outside of Monrovia to access the TRC hearings and have a say in the process of reconciliation.