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African Successes

Submitted by Shanta on Thu, 2009-09-17 11:44

In recent years, a broad swath of African countries has begun to show a remarkable dynamism.  From Mozambique’s impressive growth rate (averaging 8% p.a. for more than a decade) to Kenya’s emergence as a major global supplier of cut flowers, from M-pesa’s mobile phone-based cash transfers to KickStart’s low-cost irrigation technology for small-holder farmers, and from Rwanda’s gorilla tourism to Lagos City’s Bus Rapid Transit system, Africa is seeing a dramatic transformation.  This favorable trend is spurred by, among other things, stronger leadership, better governance, an improving business climate, innovation, market-based solutions, a more involved citizenry, and an increasing reliance on home-grown solutions.  More and more, Africans are driving African development. 

The global economic crisis of 2008-09 threatens to undermine the optimism that Africa can harness this dynamism for long-lasting development.  In light of this, it might be useful to re-visit recent achievements.  The African Successes study aims to do just that.

The study will identify a wide range of development successes (see list), from which around 20 cases will be selected for in-depth study.  The analysis of each successful experience will evaluate the following: (1) the drivers of success—what has worked and why; (2) the sustainability of the successful outcome(s); and (3) the potential for scaling up successful experiences.  African success stories offer valuable insights and practical lessons to other countries in the region. 

I welcome your comments and suggestions for success stories. Click here to see the list of what we have come up with so far.

A fiscal stimulus for Africa?

Submitted by Shanta on Mon, 2009-03-09 10:42

There is no question that the global financial and economic crisis is affecting Africa’s economic performance. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts a GDP growth rate for Africa of 3.5 percent, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous forecast, and 1.9 percentage points below the 2008 growth rate. The growth forecast for primary commodity exporters is even lower; Angola, for instance, is projecting nominal GDP to be 17 percent lower in 2009 compared to 2008.  A growth slowdown in Africa can have serious long-term consequences.
In light of these developments and evidence, and given that the United States, Western Europe and China are all considering a major fiscal expansion (of the order of trillions of dollars), a natural question to ask is: “Should African countries also introduce a fiscal stimulus?” 

The answer is: “It depends.”

Financial Market Turmoil and Africa

Submitted by Shanta on Mon, 2008-09-29 09:56

My colleagues and I are trying to think through the implications for Africa of the recent turmoil in global financial markets. Here are four propositions.

1. African banking systems are unlikely to experience the turbulence of the U.S. banking system.  African banks retain loans they originate on their balance sheets, the interbank market is small, and the market for securitized or derivative instruments is either small or nonexistent.  Even though some African countries’ banking systems have significant foreign ownership, the parent banks are typically not in the U.S.  Furthermore, the foreign ownership share in the largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, is less than five percent (compared with a developing-country average of 40 percent).