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Malawi

Using economics to fight AIDS

I gave one of the keynotes (based on joint work with Markus Goldstein) at the recent ICASA 2008 in Dakar, Senegal on the title of this post. The fight against AIDS involves allocating scarce resources to multiple uses; and contracting, avoiding, preventing, testing for, and treating the disease all involve behavioral choices.

Fertilizer Subsidies in Malawi

At a recent AERC research workshop in Nairobi, I made a comment about African governments’ not spending enough money on public goods, and spending too much on private goods such as fertilizers. The comment seemed to have struck a nerve. Several people in the audience pointed out that, in Malawi, fertilizer subsidies have increased cereal production, so government spending on fertilizers was not such a bad thing. Going beyond the general arguments that these fertilizer subsidies often don’t reach farmers (they’re stolen by middlemen) and that they benefit large (and hence less poor) farmers more, I suggested that even the Malawi case is not clear-cut. 

As Maggie McMillan points out, it was improved seeds and the relaxation of farmers’ credit constraints that contributed most to the improved yield in Malawi: “Low fertilizer use is indeed one of the Africa’s most vexing challenges. But subsidizing is only a band-aid, masking its high cost and low productivity without sustaining growth. Such band-aids can be useful, but they can also be a distraction, drawing attention away from the interventions needed for large-scale improvements."

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Malawi

The impact of the financial crisis on Malawi has so far been limited. The financial sector is small and less sophisticated, with two (out of nine) commercial banks dominating the banking sector. Foreign direct and portfolio investment levels are very low. However, most commercial banks have reported difficulties accessing foreign credit lines. Furthermore, exchange rate movements in the west are having a negative impact on foreign aid inflows to Malawi. For example, DFID’s inflows (in Malawi Kwacha equivalent) have been reduced by about 25 percent due to a depreciation of the British Pound against the US Dollar.

In the medium to long term, the second round effects of the financial crisis could have a significant negative impact on Malawi through its impact on commodity exports and remittances. Malawi’s productive sector could be severely affected through reduced demand for the country's exports, mainly tobacco, sugar, and tea. These exports are particularly vulnerable because the EU and the US are the principal destinations. Further, Malawi receives significant amounts of remittances from abroad (around 4 percent of GDP). Therefore, a slowdown in the world’s economy is likely to have a significant negative impact on Malawi’s current account.