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Madagascar economic outlook

Madagascar Economic Update

Jacques Morisset's picture

In Madagascar, donors have traditionally counted for almost half of the Government’s budget and have been, by far, the main source of funding in social sectors. 

Since the beginning of the crisis, official aid toward education, health and social protection surged, reaching almost US$260 million in 2010 against US$180 million in 2008.  Nonetheless, this increase failed  to improve significantly social indicators. 

Why has the Malagasy economy not yet collapsed?

Jacques Morisset's picture

After almost one and half year of political instability, the economy is hurt but not dead. 

The formal private sector has revealed timid signs of recovery (far from pre-crisis levels) and the informal sector has been vibrant as the result of the good performance of the primary sector (mostly due to exceptional weather) and rising trade activities in urban centers. 

To see the full update on the Madagascar economy click here

Madagascar Economic Policy Update

Noro Andriamihaja's picture

For the first time since the beginning of the crisis, the Government spent massively in October through a combination of debt-service and investment outlays. Over the next few months, the new Government is expected to face three daunting challenges with significant financial implications:

  • Organizing institutions and the electoral process (US$10-20 million for each election and an additional US$5-7 million per month to run the institutions)
  • Managing humanitarian vulnerability to climatic and external shocks (e.g.,US$40 recovery cost in 2007/2008)

Madagascar - Economic Update: Going Down...

Noro Andriamihaja's picture

If recent trends persisted during September, three new developments seem to indicate a deterioration in public finance and economic activities: (i)  the Government borrowed on the domestic financial market (about half of its monthly expenditures) for the first time since the beginning of the crisis; (ii) the exchange rate depreciated compared to the Euro and the USD over the past two weeks (down by 6 and 4% respectively); and (iii) international trade continued to decline (exports in volume, down by 62% in August compared to the same period a year ago).