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The Millennium Villages Project has stated that one of the "impacts" or effects of its project was to raise primary school enrollment by a specified quantity at some of the sites. It has never modified or retracted that claim. There is no ambiguity about what that means. It means that without the project, primary school enrollment would not have risen by that specified quantity at that site. The project's statement certainly does not mean, to any reasonable person, that "enrollment increased at the site due to larger forces independent of our project". But the fact that enrollments have been increasing all across some of the large areas where the small MVP sites are located means that it is likely that much or all of the increase seen at the intervention sites would have occurred if the project had never existed. That makes it baseless to assert that the "impact" of the project is the full change observed at the site, which the project has done for years and continues to do. This is a simple point. No sophisticated models are required to grasp it. Just an interest in genuine impact.