There is no question that the global financial and economic crisis is affecting Africa’s economic performance. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts a GDP growth rate for Africa of 3.5 percent, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous forecast, and 1.9 percentage points below the 2008 growth rate. The growth forecast for primary commodity exporters is even lower; Angola, for instance, is
President Obama on February 17 signed the $787 billion Stimulus package into law. The package is aimed at stimulating production in the US as well as job creation. However, it includes the following clause:
Rarely do we come across a video that is visually beautiful, intellectually stimulating and emotionally inspiring. “One childhood” is a documentary about how schools and schoolteachers in Eritrea are part of the campaign to improve children’s health. Based on the actual findings of two thorough technical evaluations that showed the wide coverage and effectiveness of the Eritrea programs, the film tells the story of how school health is now being delivered in the mountains of Eritrea, in the arid lands of the Red Sea coast and in urban Asmara. Available on
En Afrique, l’administration des douanes joue un rôle de tout premier plan dans le développement économique et social puisque les droits et taxes collectées par les douanes représentent bien souvent au moins 30% des recettes du budget national (hors pays pétroliers). Dans le même temps, c’est l’une des administrations les plus décriées étant bien souvent décrites comme le symbole même de la corruption et un terrible frein au commerce.
World economic growth in 2009 is expected to decline to its slowest rate since the Great Depression. In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, the latest IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects the region to grow by 3.25% this year, down from 5.4% in 2008. Many economists are now expecting the crisis to hit Africa harder and longer than was previously projected. Not only will the crisis impact human development and economic indicators, but Africa’s governance and conflicts may be affected as well.
La « randomisation » – ou application par répartition aléatoire – des programmes d’aide est actuellement considérée comme la « règle d’or » permettant d’évaluer l’impact de chaque projet et de trouver les schémas d’intervention les plus efficaces possible. Des études antérieures ont été critiquées en raison de leur portée limitée, c’est pourquoi des interventions plus récentes portent désormais sur de plus larges échantillons de population.
Randomized program implementation is currently seen as the ‘gold standard’ for impact evaluation in the search for the most effective development interventions. Earlier studies were criticized for their limited scope, so some of these interventions now involve large populations. Unfortunately, the larger the intervention, the larger is the danger that people who were supposed to get the treatment do not receive the intervention and vice-versa. Do such deviations invalidate the conclusions drawn from randomized studies?
In his earlier post on this blog, Ricardo Gazel forecast a 10% decline in Angola’s GDP. This was based on the country’s 2009 budget, which was elaborated before the deepening of the financial crisis and its spillover to the real economy. He now writes: