The year 2007 was an important milestone in modern economic history. While the U.S. grew well, China contributed more to global GDP growth than the U.S. did. That pattern is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Roughly speaking, the U.S. economy is about four times the size of China’s. If the U.S. grows at 2% -- which is solid for an advanced economy – and China continues to grow at 10+%, then China will be adding more to global GDP each year than any other country. The same can be said for global trade: China’s imports have risen 28% in the past year, so that it is an increasingly important source of demand for other countries.
The growing importance of China in the global economy is the main reason that we have launched this China Development Blog. There is huge interest in the prospects for China and in what is actually happening on the ground here.
While China has emerged as an economy of nearly equal importance to that of the U.S., it is also important to note that China and the U.S. are closely intertwined. There is broad agreement that the U.S. economy is slowing down in the wake of the sub-prime financial mess. Views on whether the U.S. goes into recession are about 50:50; but what is clear is that there will be a significant slowdown in U.S. growth. How much effect will this have on the global economy? How much on China? One school of thought has it that China and the rest of East Asia are increasingly “de-linked” from the U.S. cycle, hence they will feel little impact.