The World Bank - Working for a world free of poverty

Open Forum Gender: Getting to Equal

World Development Report 2012

Arab World: A New Social Contract

March 2008

East Asia economy - How low can this cycle go?

"Testing Times Ahead" is the title of the World Bank’s just released April 2008 East Asia and Pacific Update.   As one of the team that put it together, I thought – before tottering off to bed – that readers might like a quick take - and a chance to comment - on some of the findings. 

Economic outlooks are always uncertain, to be sure, but the level of uncertainty about prospects for the world economy just now is extraordinary. That matters in a region as highly globally integrated as East Asia.   Forecasts for the US economy have been sliding lower for months but what’s less clear is how deep and protracted the downturn will be – underlying which are uncertainties about how much more widespread and intense the global financial turmoil that began last August will get.

Not so simple, Mr. Watson

For the more theoretically minded and for the critics of
the logical framework approach - a recent ODI paper attempts to
articulate the implications of complexity science for the development sector.

From Robert Chamber's preface:

"Much development and humanitarian thinking and
practice is still trapped in a paradigm of predictable, linear causality and
maintained by mindsets that seek accountability through top-down command and
control. Recent years have seen more emphasis on the mechanistic approaches of
this paradigm and the kinds of procedures which are increasingly questioned by
successful private sector organizations." Food for thought.

When the Filter Distorts, When the Prism Refracts

Photo Credit: Flickr user fdecomiteOne of the foundational commitments of CommGAP is the belief that a national democratic public sphere is an essential and self-perpetuating part of the architecture of good governance. At the very heart of a democratic public sphere is a media system that is independent of government control and is both free and plural. It must be possible for a thousand flowers to bloom; it must be possible for a boisterous cacophony of voices to be heard. We believe that such a media system will be the grand forum for public debate and discussion on issues of common concern. We believe that such a media system will be a grand corrective of political misdeeds.

A world first – Fair trade cashews for biodiversity conservation

Much is written about the effectiveness of encouraging alternative livelihoods in conservation. One argument runs that if you can find an alternative income for someone who currently exploits a natural resource unsustainably or illegally, then the exploitation will cease and biodiversity will be conserved.  The counter argument is that the alternative is actually used as a supplementary income, making it possible for the miscreant to buy a bigger chainsaw or truck for larger scale resource exploitation. Clearly some sort of alternative is needed, but how can it be used unequivocally for conservation?

These were the problems facing one of my projects focusing on the conservation of the Lambusango forest block, at the southern end of Buton, an island to the southeast of SE Sulawesi in the middle of Indonesia. This forest is home to many of Sulawesi’s many endemic species, especially the small but belligerent wild buffalo or Anoa.

The subprime mess - what's the cost?

Accurate estimates of the fall-out are certainly a moving target , but a recent paper estimates the financial and economic cost of the crisis, predicting total loan losses of $400 billion and a 1.3 percent lower GDP growth this year. This paper also contains a nice explanation of how the subprime crisis infected other financial markets and the channels through which it affects overall lending standards and economic activity.

How to say Global Warming in Australian

Besides melting the ice-caps, global warming may soon make wine connoisseurs sweat to find a good glass of wine.

Most grape species do not tolerate much heat, and with global warming
it's becoming more difficult to grow them. About 1000 Australian wine
makers
reportedly are not being able to afford water to keep up good
quality production. They also are starting to think about switching to
more heat-resistant grapes and foresee problems growing signature
grapes such as pinot noir, cabernet, and sauvignon blanc.

A positive way of looking at it is that we may be able to grow
such grapes in places that now are too cold. I just can't wait for the
Siberian or North Canadian 2050 cabernet–sauvignon aged in French oak.

Putting the "P" back in Poverty

For those of us who grew up in developing countries, political discourse about poverty is an everyday thing. Political campaigns in the Philippines, for example, place poverty upfront and center. Candidates for local posts, such as barangay (village) councilor, all the way up to the highest office in the archipelago invariably campaign on poverty issues. For instance, memorable slogans from relatively recent elections include "para sa mahirap" ("for the poor") and "pagkain sa bawat mesa" ("food on every table"). Not at all surprising in developing country contexts where poverty and inequality are so ubiquitous.

These reflections ran through my head as I attended a brown bag lunch CommGAP organized a couple of weeks ago on a Panos London publication entitled "Making poverty the story: Time to involve the media in poverty reduction", authored by Angela Wood and Jon Barnes. Presented by Barnes at the brown bag, it incorporates research findings from six African and Asian countries. The paper makes the case that mainstream media are essential in boosting public awareness and debate on poverty reduction.

Fridays Academy: Gender and Macroeconomics

As usual on Fridays, from  Raj Nallari and Breda Griffith's lecture notes.

 

Gender and Macroeconomic Aggregates

 

Differences in the behavior of men and women may lead to different macroeconomic outcomes, particularly for such important macroeconomic aggregates as private consumption, saving and investment, and composition of government expenditure.  Gender budgeting has become an important issue in most countries over the past few decades and we will examine the methods and country-experience of gender budgeting in future postings.  The next weeks we will examine gender and consumption and gender and savings. We first contextualize the discussion by examining the linkages between the household and its gender composition and macroeconomic aggregates. 

 

The Household and Macroeconomic Aggregates

Let's talk governance and growth

What is good governance, and how should we measure it?  What impact does governance have on growth?  Even if good governance predicts positive outcomes over the long term, what effect does it have in the short term?  Dani Rodrik, well-known development economist and head of Harvard’s graduate program in public administration and international development, raises as many questions as he answers in this blog post; a recent article in The Economist addresses similar issues.  There’s a lot of interest these days in the question of how to best define and measure governance -- we’ll write more about this in the coming weeks.

Aids in Asia: alarming numbers

AidsA new United Nations report, Redefining Aids in Asia: Crafting an Effective Response, was just released and makes an astonishing prediction: 500,000 peaple could die each year people due to AIDS-related illnesses by 2020.

The report released Wednesday also contends that the number of infected people could potentially double to 10 million by 2020 if prevention work is not undertaken. The cost of such an increase in infected people would be great in all levels, including economic cost, since Aids is one of the major causes of death among working-age adults in Asia. According to the chairman of the Commission on AIDS in Asia, Dr Chakravarthi Rangarajan, the cost could be up to $2 billion annually until 2020.

Grassroots Business Initiative shows social enterprises how to fish

The Grassroots Business Initiative (GBI) is the brainchild of the World Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation (IFC).  Launched in 2004, the GBI supports innovative social enterprises – dubbed Grassroots Business Organizations (GBOs) – that directly engage the poor as entrepreneurs, consumers, employees and suppliers, offering financing and capacity building know-how to GBOs.

With some 30 projects throughout the world, the GBI is increasingly active in Asia.  In Cambodia and Indonesia the GBI works with CraftNetwork, a design and export promotion center that links international buyers with producers of high-quality handicrafts.  CraftNetwork recently launched a new e-commerce site, and also has an eBay storeDigital Divide Data, another GBI-supported Cambodian social enterprise, trains poor and disabled people in computer and English skills, answering a global business need for basic data services.  DDD has already passed the $275,000 mark providing information and communications technology (ICT) services to clients such as Harvard University’s Crimson newspaper

The subprime mess - how did we get here?

A recent IMF paper tries to understand what caused the recent deterioration of lending standards in the U.S. and shows that many parties have to take some blame. Lending standards in the subprime market deteriorated in markets with more competition, faster rising house prices and better opportunities to securitize loans once they're originated.

The relaxation of lending standards was stronger during times of lax monetary policy. While loan decisions in the prime market still seemed to follow fundamentals such as borrower characteristics, this certainly did not hold for the subprime market.

World Bank Institute (WBI) alumni

The World Bank Institute (WBI) has created WBI alumni, a web page for alumni from our courses (face to face, via video conference or E-learning). You can sign up to receive their quarterly newsletter, to stay informed about WBI initiatives, events, publications, and other resources.

Stay tuned for the announcement here of an Internet "Export Development and Diversification" course. Coming soon.

Don't literally tear down the Ming-dinasty wall, but build on it --figuratively: Tourism for development in China

Only pedestrians and bikes are allowed on Pingyao's main street.

China’s coastal areas have benefited the most from reform and opening up because they were allowed to go first and also because their geography gives them better connection to the global market.  But now some of China’s lagging interior regions are turning their disadvantages to advantages.  Developing later, some interior towns have the opportunity to preserve their ancient character and use this as an asset to attract tourists and create jobs. 

My family got to see this first-hand on a weekend trip to Pingyao, one of the best preserved ancient cities in China.  Most cities long ago tore down their city walls to make way for development.  People in Pingyao joke that their city was too poor to tear down their massive Ming-dynasty wall, so it is one of the few left completely intact.  Now the city sees it as a valuable asset, and has had the good sense to ban motor vehicles in the inner city, creating a lovely walking/biking environment through its beautiful ancient streets. 

Development 2.0: on which camp are you?

Literature on Web 2.0 technologies applied to developmental problems is rapidly growing, and with it, two camps are beginning to emerge. On the one hand, there are those who see Web 2.0 tools as an enhancement of traditional collaboration and outreach capabilities. On the other hand – and to my mind more intriguing – there are those who believe that Web 2.0 is heralding a new business paradigm.

To the former, the failure to jump on the Web 2.0 bandwagon is a missed opportunity to tap into new audiences and fundraising possibilities. To the latter, it represents the risk to development organizations of becoming obsolete, bypassed by new players who are more adept to exploiting the innovative potential of "radical collaboration". A recent online dialogue titled "NGO 2.0 – the end of the organization?" sheds some light on this issue.

Governance Reform and the Role of Communication

Photo Credit: Tony LambinoCommGAP held a 3-day training program for senior government official undertaking reform programs on the role communication and participation can play in their reforms. Thirty government officials from 15 countries in Africa and Asia participated.  The value of a group like this is that they offer real world experiences in having undertaken reforms that have been successful or have failed and can offer lessons on what needs to be done to make reforms happen.

To me the training pointed out and the comments reinforced the perspective that the role communication plays in the reforms is equal to or greater than the policy work, yet the funding and support for governments in the area of communication or to make sure that the reforms get implemented is virtually nonexistent.

Tracking wildlife in Lao - Day six: From Camp 6 to Ban Navang

Arrived at Ban Navang! Arlyne and Tony with some of the villagers who were working on the wildlife monitoring.

Feb. 9, 2007* - This morning we, sadly, had to make our way out of the forest. We had our breakfast and left around 6:30 am as the transect teams were leaving to do their last day (day four) of their surveying in this area (tomorrow they’ll move to a new location).

The walk on the trail back was absolutely stunning. It is such a beautiful forest, it’s hard to describe and no adjective would probably ever do it justice. On the walk back we got lucky again and saw some Douc Langurs! They really are amazing creatures. And they sure make some giant leaps as they make their way from tree to tree.

We stopped midway to have lunch, and reached Ban Navang shortly after 3 pm (about a 16-kilometer walk from Camp 6, towards the opposite direction than Tha Phai Ban). Ban Navang is a very nice, but very poor, village of about 310 people. With support from the WMPA they have been able to build water wells, a school, and the typical “toilet houses” you see in Lao villages: small, little houses made up of wood and palm leaves with a squat toilet. They also have some water wells where Arlyne and I bathed today.

The Sound of Music

I was surfing the web, looking for some material on “leadership”, when I came across this music video-clip which I found striking and wanted to share with you. And not because it is my favorite type of music… 

Development 2.0: on which camp are you?

As the literature on the applications of web 2.0 technologies to tackle
developmental problems is rapidly growing, two camps are beginning to emerge. On
the one hand, there are those that see web 2.0 tools fundamentally as a
(sometimes radical) enhancement on traditional collaboration and outreach
capabilities (see, for instance, BusinessWeek?s recent article on Activism 2.0
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/feb2008/tc20080213_617723...
). On the other ? to my mind, more intriguing - end of the spectrum, there are
those who believe that web 2.0 is heralding a whole new business paradigm that
challenges the very premises on which the development sector has been operating
to date. To the former, the failure to jump on the web 2.0 bandwagon is
essentially a missed opportunity to tap into new audiences ? and fundraising
venues. To the latter, it represents the risk for development organisations of
becoming obsolete and irrelevant, bypassed by new players who are more adept at
exploiting the innovative potential of ?radical collaboration?. A recent online
dialogue was significantly entitled ?NGo 2.0- the end of the organisation??
(http://www.crisscrossed.net/2008/03/19/ngo20-the-end-of-the-organization-1).

The latest voice to be added to the choir of the advocates of a disruptive new
paradigm is, quite fittingly, Anthony Williams of Wikinomics
(http://www.wikinomics.com) fame. His vision for NGOs 2.0 (
http://www.wikinomics.com/blog/index.php/2008/03/16/ngo-20-wikinomics-an...
) is remarkably similar to some of the ideas presented in this blog: see for
instance the proposal to use Second Life for collaboration between donors and
recipients (http://psdblog.worldbank.org/psdblog/2007/02/development_20.html),
or to lunch an Innocentive-like development market to tap into the wisdom of the
crowds (http://psdblog.worldbank.org/psdblog/2007/07/more-developmen.html).

The distinction between the two camps is not purely academic. It is when you
start looking at Development 2.0 as a new business model that the most promising
insights for collaboration between development organisations and the private
sector are generated (
http://psdblog.worldbank.org/psdblog/2008/02/development-20.html). The whole
area of managing innovation ? traditionally a strenght of the private sector ?
is an obvious starting point.

Does tax registration increase profits?

A large number of firms in developing countries operate in the informal sector. It is often argued that informality lowers profits and growth, but is this true? A recent paper on Bolivia finds that formality leads indeed to higher profit - on average. However, distinguishing between firms of different sizes shows that it is only mid-sized firms that stand to benefit from formality, whereas both smaller and larger firms suffer.

Asian Eco-Trend: “Green” Hotels

Jennifer Conlin of The New York Times reported recently on a global trend already sweeping through Asia and the Pacific -- the green hotel.   It was just a matter of time before environmentally-friendly practices and the business “bottom line” struck up what looks to be a promising long-term relationship.  Add growing consumer interest, combined with the cost savings realized through energy-saving and conservation strategies, and we have the makings of an eco-boom in tourism.  Case in point:  the eight-room Old Bangkok Inn, which uses solar energy to heat the hot water for the entire hotel, room sensors to shut down lights and appliances when a guest leaves the room, and features locally produced furnishings for the rooms, as well as local food specialties for every breakfast.

Fridays Academy: Gender and Macroeconomics

As usual on Fridays, from  Raj Nallari and Breda Griffith's lecture notes.

 
Engendering Macroeconomic Models

Ça?atay (1998) identified three ways in which models can be useful for integrating gender into macroeconomic models. First, models that encourage theoretical precision are instrumental in organizing knowledge and giving direction to research by focusing on the types of data that need to be collected. Second, models foster communication with the mainstream economics profession and may influence and/or change prejudices. Third, models inform policy-making and have practical implications.  Against these three premises, Ça?atay offers four approaches to gender-aware macroeconomic modeling, discussed below.  

Tracking wildlife in Lao - Day five: Camp 6

Feb. 8, 2007* - Second day of transect for us and third for the team. Arlyne and I joined a different group today, while Tony and Jim joined our group from yesterday. Our most interesting viewings today were Brown Hornbills – big birds about 70 centimeters tall, with a tucan-like beak, and sitting very high up in the trees – and a Giant Black Squirrel, just sitting there, with its large, bushy tail that made it look kinda like a skunk from where I was sitting (with my binoculars about 200 meters away.) The animals were so beautiful! I never imagined getting this excited about seeing a bird, squirrel or monkey, particularly when they are hundreds of meters away! But it’s exciting stuff! Like Tony says… the “WOW” factor: that moment when you first say “wow” and your perspective changes forever….

Perhaps almost as amazing as seeing the wildlife is noting the talent of these men in spotting things that are hundreds of meters away (granted they used to hunt for a living). While they have binoculars as well, they mainly spot the animals with their bare eyes, it’s incredible! I could barely see the hornbill at first, and they could just tell from hundreds of meters away, that high up on a tree, was a silhouette next to some leaves (which was a hornbill). I guess Arlyne and Tony are right; these are just the skills that they develop on a daily basis.
Lao Jungle Diary 5

Partial Credit Guarantee Schemes – around the world and here in Washington

Partial Credit Guarantee Schemes – around the world and here in Washington As reported earlier, March 13 and 14 saw an interesting conference on Partial Credit Guarantee Schemes, co-sponsored by the Rensselaer Institute and the Journal of Financial Stability.

A variety of papers considered conceptual and theoretical aspects of these schemes, while others evaluated specific schemes, including in Chile, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, UK, and the U.S. Two panel discussions complemented the paper presentations and discussions, one composed of practitioners with experiences from different regions of the world, the other of policy makers and advisers to policy makers. So, what were the main findings of the conference?