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July 2008

Cambodia's Relative Peace Brings the Challenges of Growth

Workers scale one of the skyscrapers under construction in Cambodia.

Last Sunday, more than 8 millions Cambodians were called to vote. This is already the fourth general elections since the 1991 Paris Peace Agreement. Many – including me before I moved to our Phnom Penh office last summer – still connect Cambodia first to what we learned in history classes. The splendor of the Angkor civilization and the atrocities of the Khmer Rouge regime probably come on top of the list. And there is some truth to that. Angkor Wat and its neighboring temples remain magnificent. The Khmer Rouge regime has left deep stigma for the people and for the society. The Khmer Rouge tribunal is attracting a lot of international attention as well. Most landmine fields have been cleared, although there remain some in more remote areas.

But, for all this, this connection more and more misses a key fact: over the last couple of years, Cambodia has achieved a relative peace that has enabled dramatic social and economic change.

Are remittances to Mexico really declining?

A slowdown in the growth of remittances to Mexico has been a cause for concern as these flows (mostly from the United States) provide a lifeline to a large number of Mexican families.

Migrant remittances to Mexico declined by 0.1 percent in June compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest official data. This represents an improvement over the significantly larger 3.3 percent decline the previous month.  Also, this article from the WaPo states that overall in the first six months of 2008, remittances to Mexico have declined by 2.2 percent compared the first half of 2007.

In the current climate of negative news, it’s worth taking a step back to see if the pessimistic picture is justified.

Monthly data show that officially reported remittance flows to Mexico in the first six months of 2008 followed a very similar trend to that of the previous two years, and they have remained almost unchanged from 2007. Monthly remittances to Mexico show strong seasonality, reaching a peak during May on account of Mother’s Day. The official data shows at best a flattening since early 2007, especially coming after 20 percent average annual growth during the previous five years, and after taking into account seasonal fluctuations.
 
Moreover, Mexican migrants are still sending money home, if necessary by taking up whatever jobs they can find, postponing consumption, or drawing on savings. There are also anecdotal reports that stringent immigration enforcements have encouraged some remittances to shift to hand carry or informal channels.

Empowering people through Web 3.0 + Gen Y + m-governance

As the Fortune Brainstorm Tech near Silicon Valley was getting going last week, I contributed a blog entry on ‘Governance-on-the-Go’, or ‘GonGo’, emphasizing the need to move away from static  'e-government' towards the highly mobile citizen becoming center stage in the next phase of IT interface with governance.  The blog entry and the contributions I made during the BrainstormTech drew some discussion during the event and in the blogosphere, yet of particular relevance for me was what the rich gamut of contributions by others.  See for instance here, here, here, here, and here.

Dead as a Doha?

After seven years of fitful trade negotiations, the WTO’s Doha Round has collapsed, and the post mortems have already hit the newsstands.  Writing in the International Herald Tribune, Keith Bradsher points to a new alliance between China and India, both pushing for so-called “safeguard” rules for agriculture, translating into uncapped tariffs on food imports from rich countries, ostensibly to support farmers in developing countries. 

Let the People be the Judge!

It was in Manila last week where I came across a banner headline on a major broadsheet that read “The people, not surveys, should judge (the president’s) performance."  I was confused.  Aren't people’s attitudes, opinions, and intentions precisely what surveys seek to measure?  Aren’t surveys, in fact, meant to reflect the will and preferences of the people?

When surveys are done well and conscientiously, they provide valuable information from which we can derive knowledge helpful toward understanding people's opinions, especially on matters of public interest.  Applying public opinion research techniques can also aid in improving the quality of democratic governance, particularly in coming to more informed decisions that more closely reflect citizen preferences (e.g., James S. Fishkin’s chapter in Governance Reform under Real-World Conditions).

A vegetable traffic light to detect landmines

Image credit: CPI at Flickr under a Creative Commons license.

I thought the most innovative way to detect land mines was, to date,  the use of sniffing rats (light enough not to set off the explosive). But scientists in South Africa (a team set up by the University of Stellenbosch and the Danish biotechnology firm Aresa) are now turning to vegetables.

According to EcoWorldly, they have developed the "Red-Detect" bio-sensor technology in a weed that changes color from green to red when when it detects the nitrogen dioxide that leads from buried mines. The weed, Thales Cress, is too small to be seen from a safe distance, however, so the scientists are now betting on using the tobacco plant instead, which has large leaves and grows easily in most parts of the world.

Field trials are already underway in Serbia, but scientists keep researching the plant's response to drought and extreme temperatures, as well as the risk of environmental contamination coming from this genetically engineered tobacco. In East Asia, projects to clean the land from mines are currently underway in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar (at least).

The Technocrat and the Reporter

In a previous job, I was asked to organize media training for senior technocrats in international development who would, in the course of their jobs, have to face the media from time to time to answers questions about their areas of responsibility. As I set about doing a learning needs assessment and organizing the training, I noticed a dynamic I had not reflected on before. It is this: when working in headquarters most senior technocrats working in bilateral or multilateral development organizations are really anonymous bureaucrats. In fact, in bilateral donor organizations they tend to be part of the civil service; as a result, they are not meant to be seen or heard. That is the job of Ministers. Thus, although they take decisions that affect millions of lives, these technocrats are not used to public questioning by the media. 

Global Coverage

212
The number of countries and territories covered by the World Governance Indicators, the 2008 version of which was launched on June 2008.

¿Es la Directiva de Retorno Aprobada por la Unión Europea favorable para Latinoamérica?

El día 18 deJunio de 2008 se aprobó la directiva de retorno en el Parlamento Europeo. Esta directiva constituye el primer paso hacia una política común de inmigración para inmigrantes ilegales procedentes de países no comunitarios. La directiva entraría en vigencia el año 2010.

La mayoría de los países latinoamericanos, los bloques comerciales regionales y organismos internacionales han expresado su rechazo y preocupación por la reciente medida aprobada por la Unión Europa (UE). La directiva atenta bloquear la oportunidad de muchos países latinoamericanos de seguirse globalizando, accediendo a mercados cada vez mas grandes no solo a través del movimiento de bienes, servicios, capital, si no a través del movimiento de personas.  
(Ver resumen de noticias en Ingles)

Entre los efectos posibles de esta directiva se encuentran:

A closer look at that rotten papaya - facts on food waste

I'm getting a lot of satisfaction lately from this blog, and here is the very last example: in response to a rather light posting simply calling attention to an ingenious awareness campaign, I received this comment from reader S.Y. which provides actual data, links to recent, relevant reports, and makes a solid connection between food waste, development, and the East Asia & Pacific region:

"Despite its personal perspective style, your article on food waste awareness is very relevant to both the food crises recently making the headlines and the Bank's EAP region.

You are hardly alone in housing that ugly peach. Food waste occurs at different levels of a chain extending from harvesting to consumption. Household food waste is, as you point out, a relatively recent phenomenon in many developed countries (what the Bank delights in calling the North). This was publicised in July 2008 when Gordon Brown urged Britons to stop wasting food. The U.K. report "Food Matters" http://tinyurl.com/ypmpxq  says consumers in this country throw away 4.1 million tonnes of edible food (worth an average of £420--USD836 or €533 at today's rate) per household per year. Nearly a decade ago, a U.S. report estimated an annual waste of 10 times more, 41 million tonnes, of edible food at the consumer and food-service levels in that country! (Kantor et al., Food Review 1997 20:2-12).

Canadian migrants moving money (say that five times fast!)

According to this article in Globe and Mail, new data from the Canadian government shows that four in 10 Canadians are sending money to family and friends abroad.  Also interesting to note:

"In Canada, where one in five people are born outside the country, about $5-billion is sent in remittances a year, according to Western Union, one of the world's largest money transfer firms."

This data will definitely help fill in some blanks as we update and publish the next Migration and Remittances Factbook.

Food waste awareness - Guilty of housing that ugly peach

(Found at divinecaroline.com)

Here's an eye-catching way of raising awareness about food waste. The Instituto Akatu, a Brazilian organization aimed at making consumers more conscious about their choices, participated a few months ago in a campaign about food waste. It came up with a brochure that imitated the style of those used by supermarkets to advertise their weekly offers, but shows the food all rotten (in their estimation, 1/3 of all food purchased goes bad before being eaten --I guess this figure applies to Brazil). A group of actors posing as supermarket employees handed these out outside the supermarket, raising a good number of eyebrows, I bet.

The brochure resonates with me not because it discovered any hidden fact --although 1/3 sounds like a *really high* proportion--, but because it reminds me of what I know is the case in my household and I'm not proud to admit: I'd swear that papaya was sitting in my fridge last night. And I think I've met that avocado before.

Public Opinion and Policy Making in Less Settled Polities

In the last post on this Blog, my colleague, Anne-Katrin, discusses John Kingdon's Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, a very influential study of the policy process in the United States. In the study, Kingdon shows how the three streams of problems, policy solutions and politics converge to move an issue to 'the decision agenda'; that is, governmental action.

Fridays Academy: Gender and the Labor Market

From  Raj Nallari and Breda Griffith's lecture notes.

 Wage Rates

Continuing and persistent gender inequalities in wages suggest that the labor market is not operating freely. One reason may be differences in bargaining power between men and women and the different obligations that the individual sexes face. For example, the reservation wage for women is often lower than that for men. This may reflect the lower mobility that women have because of family obligations. In effect women are price takers in the labor market. This is especially true in developing economies where most times agricultural wages paid to women are lower than those paid to men, even for the same work.

GonGo for democracy: how mobile technology is changing the way grassroots organizations monitor elections

The idea of GonGo (Governance-on-the-Go), raised a few days ago by Dani Kaufmann, has generated interesting comments and discussion. GonGo is also influencing the way people monitor elections in developing countries where weak capacity and the lack of freedom of speech and political will prevail. My initial thoughts are that there is a lot of potential to bring accountability and transparency to elections and democracy where civil society and simple technologies intersect.
 
A recent report of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) presents the cases of Indonesia, Palestine, Monte Negro, Albania, Bahrain, and Sierra Leona, where local organizations received “GonGo assistance” to monitor the voting-process. A combo of (i) cellphones, (ii) software of massive text messaging communication, and (iii) a lap-top empowered citizens to report on-the-go about the electoral outcomes, anomalies and fraud.
 

Long-distance knowledge sharing network expands in Indonesia

GDLN Indonesia covers more than 220 public and private universities across the archipelago, opening up opportunities to share knowledge both within Indonesia and with other countries.

Earlier this month in Jakarta I participated in the inauguration of the expanded Global Development Learning Network (GDLN) IndonesiaGDLN, for those who may not be familiar with the network, is a World Bank initiated partnership dedicated to the use of information and communications technology to facilitate learning and knowledge sharing for people working in the development field.  Its programs include formal courses as well as multi-country dialogues and virtual conferences, delivered via a blend of videoconference, web, and other modes of distance learning. 

Indonesia’s participation in GDLN began several years ago with distance learning centers at the University of Indonesia and three other universities around the country having been connected to the global network, via satellite, under a World Bank loan.  However, a few months ago, the Government of Indonesia decided to bridge the four existing centers, through the University of Indonesia DLC, with the broadband fiber optic infrastructure of the Indonesia Higher Education Network (INHERENT). 

Indirect Media Effects: The Unknown Quantity in Policy Making

Photo Credit: Flickr User queenkvWhen you're advocating for a better understanding of the media's role in policy making and governance reform, nothing is as disheartening as a well done study that questions the media's role on the basis of sound evidence. Even when you can make a good argument that the study doesn't tell the whole story - you just know that experts in policy making and in academia will buy into what that study argues. That is why I found reading John Kingdon's excellent book Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies rather less enjoyable than the book deserves.

Biodiversity restoration in Lake Dianchi, China - Part 3: Alien invaders both hold back and support recovery

Red-eared Sliders, one of the invasive alien species in Lake Dianchi. See full photogallery.

Another notable achievement of the ‘Restoration of Freshwater Biodiversity in Lake Dianchi’ project (see previous entries--part 1 and part 2) was the discovery and action taken against a number of invasive alien species which had not been recorded from the lake before the surveys initiated by the project. These include the Golden Apple Snail, Louisiana Crayfish, Red-eared Slider (the turtle or terrapin commonly found in pet shops the world over), and Muskrat. Their introduction to the area, as with many alien invasives, “seemed a good idea at the time” but they all have – or likely will have – serious negative economic and ecological impacts. The Golden Apple Snail has a predilection for young rice plants, the Louisiana Crayfish burrows into bunds, and the Red-eared Slider predates on fish.

‘Governance-on-the-Go’, or GonGo: the citizen at the center of an IT-enabled governance breakthrough?

I am now at the Fortune BrainstormTech, which aims to relate innovations in technology to larger world problems it can solve. The event just started, featuring fascinating evening panels with tech leaders (here). One of the sessions I will co-lead tomorrow, with Ross Mayfield of Socialtext, is on governance. In this forthcoming interactive lab we will try to advance the discussion on the interface between ICT, governance and government. One contribution I will try to make is to distinguish between e-government and m-governance, and to ask for ideas on how m-governance can be taken to the next stage. 

For many years already, the IT revolution has brought about innovation supporting the modernization of the public sector, in industrialized and developing countries. The major advances took place into what’s called e-government, namely electronic government, or the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) by government agencies in the provision of public services and in interacting with their constituencies.

First comprehensive picture and analysis of the impact of Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar

The Government of Myanmar, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the United Nations have released the first comprehensive report covering the impact of Cyclone Nargis on the people in the Ayeyarwady Delta and Yangon. Among the highlights:

- It estimates the cyclone killed over 84,530 people, with a further 53,836 still reported missing.

- The assessment of damage and losses confirms a similar scale of impact to that of the Indian Ocean Tsunami in Indonesia in 2004, especially at the household and community severely damaged, together with around 4,000 schools.

- The cyclone wiped out the livelihoods of families overnight, flooding over 600,000 hectares of agricultural land, killing up to 50 per cent of draught animals, destroying fishing boats and sweeping away food stocks and agricultural implements.

- This has left households extremely vulnerable – in mid-June, 55 per cent reported having only one day of food stocks or less, and have relied in part on the steady flow of relief supplies.

- The total economic losses amount to about 2.7% of the projected 2008 GDP, with the effects of the cyclone concentrated on a region important for agriculture and fishing in Myanmar.

- Recovery needs, which are estimated at just over a total of US$1 billion over the next 3 years, include the most urgent priorities of significant food, agriculture, housing, basic services and support to communities for restoring their livelihoods and rebuilding assets.

- The indicative estimate of recovery needs and costs is preliminary and will need to be updated over time, reflecting the experience of other natural disasters in the region which demonstrate the importance of refining assessments and recovery plans at a sectoral level.

Biodiversity Restoration in Lake Dianchi, China - Part 2: Thanks (and no thanks) to Buddhist believers

Black Dragon Spring.
See full photogallery.

A remarkable feature of the distribution of Lake Dianchi’s endemic fish fauna (see previous entry ) is that some of the species are essentially confined to ponds protected by Buddhist temples.  These ponds are fed by freshwater springs coming out of the karst hills which surround parts of the Dianchi Basin. The water is beautifully clear and it is a very special feeling to see such excruciatingly rare and restricted species in such special surroundings.

Visit one of the many Buddhist temples in China and neighboring countries and you are more than likely to see sellers of small caged birds or of baby turtles which believers can release to gain merit.  To be honest, many of the small birds are already stressed and likely dehydrated and don’t live long (and indeed are often re-caught). This is one aspect of the wildlife trade issue in SE Asia, and a few years back we supported a delightful cartoon book on this with the Lao PDR office of the Wildlife Conservation Society and with additional support from the Canada Fund.

Evaluating Impact: The Jury's Still Out

Photo Credit: Flickr User ReRodIn reading Tom's excellent post on CIMA's new report on independent media development efforts, I was struck yet again by how little we know about the impact of media development assistance - and how little we know about what we know. For instance, it's commonly held that donors need to be able to understand the impact of their assistance, to make sure their dollars are being spent wisely and in the right place. But how should we determine this?

Fridays Academy: Gender and the Labor Market

From  Raj Nallari and Breda Griffith's lecture notes.

 

Unemployment Rates

The figure below examines world and regional unemployment rates by sex for 2006. Globally women were more likely to be unemployed compared with men. Female unemployment in 2006 was 6.6 percent compared to 6.1 percent for men. Furthermore, the 2006 female unemployment rate increased from 6.3 percent in 1996. According to the ILO (2007) there were a total of 81.8 million women who were willing to work and actively looking for work without a job; up 22.7 percent from 10 years earlier.

 

World and Regional Unemployment Rates by Sex, 2006. 

Source: ILO (2007)

 

Further disparity exists when comparing female youth unemployment – those aged 15-24 years.  Roughly 35.6 million young women were seeking employment in 2006. And while noting that youth unemployment is most times higher than adult unemployment rates, we see from the figure below that female youth unemployment rates are far higher than male youth in five of the regions considered – Central and Eastern Europe (non-EU and CIS), South East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Middle East and North Africa. 

 

Biodiversity Restoration in Lake Dianchi, China - Part 1

Last year was marked by the breeding of Little Grebes in Xialiangwang, one of the ‘Restoration of Freshwater Biodiversity in Lake Dianchi’ project's restoration sites.
See more photos.

Today I paid my final visit to the office of the ‘Restoration of Freshwater Biodiversity in Lake Dianchi’ project. It’s been part of my life for over a decade and I have come to feel very avuncular towards it. I expected to feel quite sad when the final reporting was completed, but in fact there is still so much going on, capitalizing on the gains they have made over the years, that I am actually full of hope for continued positive outcomes as it comes of age without the support of the Bank and the GEF.