June 2009

In a previous blog I summarized our views on China’s growth prospects, developed while writing the World Bank’s recent China Quarterly Update economic report. We think that China is likely to continue to see respectable growth in a difficult global environment. At this important juncture for China and the world economy, what is the upshot of this for policymaking?

At any point in time, governments need to work on short-term macroeconomic policies and on more medium- and long-term policies. There are trade-offs. More attention to short-term policies typically means less attention to the policies and reforms that are important for the medium and long term. We think that, given that China has already put in place a forceful short-term stimulus that seems effective in keeping growth respectable, China can put more emphasis on the structural reforms to promote continued, sustainable growth.

There continues to be a lot of discussion in China whether GDP growth will reach the government target of 8 percent this year, and whether the government should put in place more stimulus measures, typically presumed to be the kind of infrastructure-oriented stimulus that characterizes the package already in place.

I think it would not be a good idea to add more traditional, infrastructure-oriented fiscal stimulus in 2009. Why?

One of the dilemmas voiced by anti-corruption agencies at the UNODC-CommGAP organized learning event on the role of communication in anti-corruption efforts last November was the challenge of working with the media. On the one hand, anti-corruption agencies understood the importance of media relations. On the other, many of them had had unpleasant experiences with journalists, leaving them frustrated and suspicious of the media profession as a whole.

About a month ago, I came across Changemakers.com (via Change.org’s Social Entrepreneurship blog), a neat website for people to connect and collaborate with others working – on all levels – to solve social problems. The website is an initiative of Ashoka, a nonprofit organization that works to support social entrepreneurship. Changemakers seems to act as a social network of sorts – through competitions, discussion forums and storytelling – for people who want to make a difference. Two aspects of the site quickly appealed to me.

These days, that title alone is probably enough to have most of you continue reading.

Pakistan's leap into international news headlines has mostly been a result of a series of unfortunate events. The global spotlight has also extended to Pakistan's education system, and the tone of that coverage has mirrored that of Pakistan’s other problems. A recent New York Times article described the growth of madrassas in southern Punjab, claiming that lack of access compelled citizens to turn to these schools as a last resort to educate their children.

Rather than contributing to this debate, I wanted to discuss education in Pakistan from a different angle by talking about the problem solvers. It seems like an appropriate time to write on these issues considering the recent World Bank approval of the Sindh and Punjab Education Sector Projects, two credits totaling over $650M to support the wide-scale education reform programs in these two major provinces.

Bangladesh’s export earnings are mostly determined by the export of readymade garments (RMG) to North American and European countries with 75% of total export earning coming from this sector. Quite understandably, the economic crisis in those countries unnerves us.

Fortunately, the clothing sector has remained more or less unscathed by the global crisis even as the trepidation among the entrepreneurs, policy makers and economists is still very high. During the last fiscal year (2007-08), the overall growth of the export of RMG was 16.16% which increased to 23.48% between July 08 and January 09 of the current fiscal year.

Readymade garments are the largest export industry and determine the dynamics of total export earnings for Bangladesh RMG is still growing at a satisfactory rate. There is no strong indication of any negative impacts of the global economic crisis on RMG as of today, but the future continues to be unpredictable.

Journals

It's been a very enriching experience to listen to the reactions of these 1200 or so college students.

Over the past couple of weeks, thanks to my colleagues Saroeun and Sophinith, I have traveled to various universities in Cambodia to present the findings of the World Bank’s growth report for the country. It's been a very enriching experience to listen to the reactions of these 1200 or so students. It was also nice to see the dynamism of these universities and these students.

Most interesting was the focus of their questions. Although the report is focused on medium- and long-term trends, many questions were about the impact of the global economic crisis. My answer: Cambodia is very exposed to the crisis given its openness and reliance on foreign investment, and despite the strong resilience of its rural economy.

There were also many questions about extractive industries. The answer is in Chapter 5 of the report: there remain considerable uncertainties about the potential in oil and gas and in mining, with in fact practically no major proven commercially viable reserve so far.

Bureaucracies are inherently secretive. German sociologist Max Weber said that in the 1920s, long before the advent of television news conferences and the internet, in a time when journalism wasn't actually meant to be investigative. That is true for autocracies, but don't think democratic governments are immune to the secrecy bug. United States government agencies increased the use of privacy exemptions to deny federal Freedom of Information Act requests by more than 600 % between 1998 and 2002, according to a study by Jennifer LaFleur.

 Video recording on mobile phones has existed for quite some time, and small portable video cameras (like the Flip Camera) have been around for a while too, but the arrival of the new iPhone 3GS may be the turning point in mobile video.

The new iPhone allows you to record, edit, and then share your videos from wherever you are, as long as you've got a mobile data connection. This new move by Apple got me thinking about how video is currently used in international development, and specifically, reporting on development projects.

In my experience, a lot of the project reporting I've come across has consisted of long reports that are created at regular intervals throughout the life of a project. While these reports are absolutely integral to ensuring the success of a project, they generally don't tell a compelling story about the work that is being done or the people involved in the projects, whether they be development practitioners or beneficiaries.

Easy-to-record-and-share video capabilities can change all of that. By embedding video recording and simple editing software into a device that is already used by development practitioners — the mobile phone — it's possible to allow for more regular project updates and reports with a human angle: interviews from the locations, visual representations of work being done, and context around the work and the people it affects.

This is also increasingly relevant in areas of the world where broadband access may be limited, but mobile penetration is high.

Of course, these videos would not replace the longer status reports, but would supplement the reporting process — and, at the same time, make the work that is being done by international development organizations more accessible and understandable to people that are not directly involved by may have interest.

A good example of someone that is using video effectively to report on his development work is Tony Whitten, who submits video updates to the East Asia & Pacific on the Rise blog. Here's an example of some of the videos he creates:

The question I ask then is simple:

How can we make this kind of video (and photo/audio) narrative production easier for development practitioners? In essence, how do we help the Tony Whitten's of the world do more of what they are doing in an easier and more efficient way?

(iPhone photo by slowburn on flickr.)

Last month, US Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer spoke in an engaging panel discussion on the role of art and architecture in civic spheres at the National Gallery of Art in Washington, DC. He talked about the design of Boston’s federal courthouse: an effort that strove to create a building that was accessible and inviting to the people, so that they would recognize it as a public space—their space—and use it.

I spent last week at the 2009 UNISDR Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction in Geneva. The Global Platform, attended this year by some 1,800 participants from more than 300 Governments and Organizations, is the premier gathering for the worldwide Disaster Risk Reduction community, including political leaders and their policy advisors, UN agencies, international organizations, and scientific/academic institutions. The first event was held in 2007.

The World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific region had a strong presence at the Platform with representation (pdf) from all of its countries and regional partners like ASEAN and SOPAC. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) had its semi-annual Consultative Group meeting on the sidelines of the Platform on June 15. This was an important meeting for us since the Country Programming Profiles that we had prepared for resources from GFDRR for 2009-11 were up for consideration. The profiles were prepared by our country focal points in strong partnership with government authorities with the aim of leveraging scarce GFDRR resources into a coherent and comprehensive disaster risk management program. Donors endorsed the proposed program and were very appreciative of the process followed.