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February 2016

1995: Helping implement Mongolia’s Poverty Alleviation Program

Jim Anderson's picture
Photo courtesy of WB Group Archives
Growth picked up to 6.4% in 1995, but it was a short-lived acceleration—it would be another eight years before Mongolia reached that level of growth again.  The World Bank/IDA’s first ever Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for Mongolia noted that, as painful as the first half of the 1990s had been for Mongolia, it was not as bad as in the countries of the former Soviet Union.  Only the Baltic countries had growth resume by 1994.  The CAS attributed Mongolia’s turnaround to five factors: strong monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies to achieve macroeconomic stabilization; an early privatization program which opened the door for a private sector supply response; prompt and continued assistance of the international community; political stability and progress on institutional reforms, including the adoption of several new laws to support the new market-oriented economy; and government commitment: “When controversial decisions need to be taken, reform-oriented views have prevailed within the Cabinet and Parliament. The Government, and society at large, are aware that a return to the past is impossible and emphasize that a market-oriented economy based on democratic principles is central to their development philosophy.”

Focus on the “day before” to better plan for the “day after”

Raja Rehan Arshad's picture
Recovery efforts from the conflict in the Ukraine can learn much from reconstruction after natural disasters. Photo Credit: Alexey Filippov for UNICEF


Lessons learned over time from post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts reflect the need to reinforce stabilization immediately following the end of a conflict.

Being ready in advance with a recovery and reconstruction plan is one way to ensure that critical interventions can be implemented quickly following the cessation of hostilities.This can be achieved to a large extent by coordinating with humanitarian efforts in the recovery continuum during active conflict.
 
Such a plan helps to identify actionable opportunities that can help to support local-level recovery. This includes immediate improvements in services and enhancing livelihood opportunities essential to establishing popular confidence in state institutions and to fostering social cohesion.

Did you do your power calculations using standard deviations? Do them again...

Berk Ozler's picture

As the number of RCTs increase, it’s more common to see ex ante power calculations in study proposals. More often than not, you’ll see a statement like this: “The sample size is K clusters and n households per cluster. With this sample, the minimum detectable effect (MDE) is 0.3 standard deviations.” This, I think, is typically insufficient and can lead to wasteful spending on data collection or misallocation of resources for a given budget.

1994: Assessing the real costs of the economic contraction

Jim Anderson's picture
Today we look at 1994.  At last the economic collapse of the early 1990s bottomed out and growth resumed.  The economic hardship of the first years of transition, however, had taken its toll.  A study on financing of education found that “Between 1990 and 1992, government expenditures and education expenditures were cut by 57.6 percent and 56.0 percent, respectively. The decline in public spending was more than three times as much as the decline in GDP. In 1993, the allocation to education was reduced to 15.2 percent of the state budget, and to 3.8 percent of GDP.”

Enrolments fell generally, but herders' children who attended boarding schools were affected more severely than other children. “Enrollment of boarders in 1992 was only half of that in 1989. In sum, those who bear the brunt of structural adjustment are rural children.”  The challenge of educating herders’ children remains to this day a part of the World Bank program in Mongolia.

The gamification of education

Mariam Adil's picture

Open data for economic growth continues to create buzz in all circles.  We wrote about it ourselves on this blog site earlier in the year.  You can barely utter the phrase without somebody mentioning the McKinsey report and the $3 trillion open data market.  The Economist gave the subject credibility with its talk about a 'new goldmine.' Omidyar published a report a few months ago that made $13 trillion the new $3 trillion.  The wonderful folks at New York University's GovLab launched the OpenData500 to much fanfare.  The World Bank Group got into the act with this study.  The Shakespeare report was among the first to bring attention to open data's many possibilities. Furthermore, governments worldwide now routinely seem to insert economic growth in their policy recommendations about open data – and the list is long and growing.

Map

Geographic distribution of companies we surveyed. Here is the complete list.
 
We hope to publish a detailed report shortly but here meanwhile are a few of the regional findings in greater detail.

Weekly Links, February 26: Scatterplots vs. bar graphs; yes, we get it, your study is novel; RCTs are (not) useful for policy-making: redux, and more...

Berk Ozler's picture

In the face of significant social and cultural barriers, it is tempting to be cynical about a role for education in promoting women managers in developing economies. Consider the number of factors that could come in the way: nationally, cultural and social attitudes may discourage the career advancement of women, and at the firm-level, male-dominated informal networks and cultures can act as barriers. Furthermore, even if all these obstacles were somehow removed, the lack of good quality education itself, and skills mismatches can pose problems.
 
But, in spite of all this, education remains a crucial founding block for career success. After all, one needs an education in the first place to get to a point where these other factors can undercut the likelihood of career progression. Therefore, without access to education, one may stumble even before the climb up the career ladder begins.

Remittances and integrity: how to exist in harmony

Emily Rose Adeleke's picture

Page also available: French, Spanish



How do countries ensure that remittance service providers – who are often serving the world’s poorest people – mitigate their risk for abuse by money launderers and terrorist organizations?
 
This important question is addressed by new Guidance from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the international standard-setting body for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT).
 
The United Nations estimates that developing countries received over US$400 billion in remittances from migrants living abroad in 2014. These funds are often the first financial service that migrants and their families use, so it is important that people can send and receive funds with relative ease and at reasonable cost. However, remittance service providers and the governments that supervise them, must ensure that they are not abused by parties undertaking illegitimate activities such as money laundering or terrorist financing.  

This Week in #SouthAsiaDev: February 25, 2016

Mary Ongwen's picture

Also available in: Español

Santiago de Chile. Photo: alobos Life via Flickr (under CC license) 


Note from the editors: The following is an interview with Patricia Arriagada, former acting Comptroller General of Chile, and Patricio Barra Aeloiza, Head of Accounting Analysis Division of the Comptroller General Office, who have been instrumental in recent reforms of public financial management systems in Chile.

Starting in 2010, Chile embarked on a journey to improve public sector accounting by converging to an international standard of financial reporting by 2016. The country expects to produce its first fully compliant financial statements in 2019. One main objective of this reform is to ensure that financial information generated by the government accounting system is comprehensive, reliable, and useful for decision-making. Another is to increase the levels of fiscal and financial transparency and accountability in the public sector.
 

Patricia Arriagada,
former acting Comptroller General
of Chile

These reforms were driven by the Comptroller General office, is what is known as a “Supreme Audit Institution,” and is responsible for monitoring revenues and expenditures in all parts of the government – in particular, ensuring the quality and credibility of financial management and financial reporting.

To grow sustainably, cities first need to get their finances right

Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez's picture
On Monday, China officially launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in a ceremony with representatives from the bank's 57 founding-member countries. AIIB will have a capital base of US$100 billion, three-quarters of which come from within Asia.
 
Infrastructure is a growing need for Asia,
and collaboration is critical to filling
gaps. Photo: World Bank

At the inaugural ceremony in the Great Hall of the People, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed the new institution's mission, saying that "Our motivation [for setting up the bank] was mainly to meet the need for infrastructure development in Asia and also satisfy the wishes of all countries to deepen their co-operation."

Indeed, the AIIB is a major piece of China's regional infrastructure plan, which aims to address the huge needs for expanding rail, road and maritime transport links between China, central Asia, the Middle East and Europe. But the AIIB should also represent a huge opportunity for cooperation not only between countries in the region but also with other multilateral development banks.

Our experience working on transport mega-projects co-financed by several multilateral development banks (MDBs) already shows that this collaboration is much needed and critical for the success and viability of mega-projects. The most recent experience with the Quito Metro Line One Project, for example, shows that the co-financing banks – World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, Andean Development Corporation and European Investment Bank –  brought not only their financial muscle but also their rich and diverse global knowledge and experience.  Incidentally, because of the Quito Metro project, all the MDBs involved in the project were dubbed as the  “musketeers, ” precisely due to the high degree of collaboration and team work that is making this project a success.

Employers install technology, robots don’t

Siddhartha Raja's picture


Photo: Dylan's World / Flickr Creative Commons

A decade before the financial crisis, Australia was a bastion of infrastructure successes. The country’s four major airports (Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane and Sydney) were privatized. Numerous greenfield projects were also launched, for example, extensive highway construction, and new projects were continually added to the pipeline.
 
Some of these new projects, however, faced significant difficulties: some were constructed without robust performance data, leading to overambitious forecasting and overaggressive financial structures. In part, this led Australia to suffer multiple high-profile defaults and brought the country’s infrastructure project pipeline to a halt.
 
But, today, Australia is displaying signs of promise once again. And one state, in particular, is among the developed world’s GDP growth outliers: New South Wales (NSW). The state’s economic growth has reached 3.5%, outstripping the country’s average rate of 2.8%, and even the G20 average (which stands at 3%). As such, NSW’s infrastructure model has likely had a multiplier effect on economic activity—and has been identified as a potential playbook for other jurisdictions.


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