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China Phase-Out of Ozone Damaging Chemicals Brings Climate Benefits

Karin Shepardson's picture

A slew of air conditioning units in a building. - Photo: Shutterstock​

Also available in Chinese

Last month, China was granted US$95 million to reduce its production of hydro-chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), substances that are used primarily for cooling, refrigeration, and the manufacture of foam products. The funding comes from the Multilateral Fund (MLF) of the Montreal Protocol, because HCFCs deplete the ozone layer and are controlled under the Protocol. With access to these funds, between now and 2015 China will reduce its production of HCFCs by 10%, or 47,000 metric tons from 2010 levels, allowing it to meet the first reduction targets set by the Protocol.

This alone is worth celebrating because China is the world's largest producer of HCFCs. Nearly 50% of its production is consumed by other developing countries, all of whom also face HCFC consumption reduction targets under the Protocol. Herein lies one secret to the Protocol’s success: its ability to regulate both production and consumption worldwide simultaneously, putting into practice an economist’s dream to tackle both supply and demand in tandem. By addressing the supply side of the problem through support to China’s production phase-out, the demand side - in China and in developing countries around the world - can build a sustainable HCFC consumption phase-out response. The ozone layer, and human and environmental health, will all be the better for it.

Longreads: China 2013 Survey, Low Carbon Competitiveness, Pakistan’s Overseas Workers, the Great Chinua Achebe

Donna Barne's picture

Find a good longread on development? Tweet it to @worldbank with the hashtag #longreads.

 

LongreadsChina’s prospects stirred interest as the BRICs met in South Africa and a new survey by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development found China on course to become the world’s largest economy by 2016. The OECD study says China has “weathered the global economic and financial crisis of the past five years better than virtually any OECD country” and should be able to continue catching up and improving living standards over the next decade.  While the OECD study says China needs to shift to more environmentally friendly modes of consumption and production, a new Climate Institute/GE Low-Carbon Competitiveness Index finds that France, Japan, China, South Korea and the United Kingdom are “currently best positioned to prosper in the global low-carbon economy.”

Climate Institute/GE Low-Carbon Competitiveness Index
Climate Institute/GE Low-Carbon Competitiveness Index

China Gets Ready for a New Carbon Era

Wang Shu's picture

 Rush hour traffic on a road in Beijing, China. - Photo: Shutterstock

Also available in Chinese

The 5th Assembly of the World Bank’s Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) is coming to an end after rich and rewarding meetings in Washington DC this week. I had the opportunity to present China’s final Market Readiness Proposal (MRP) (pdf), or in more simple language, China’s proposal to build a national emission trading system (ETS). Together with China, the PMR also received proposals from Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico on their initiatives. (Also read: Can Carbon Taxes Be Effective?)

From the Chinese perspective, our MRP serves as a summary of the Government’s initial thoughts on how a domestic ETS would be established to cover the whole country. For this to happen, a lot of work needs to be done, and this proposal provides a framework and roadmap to guide us on our journey. We are expecting domestic and international institutions, experts and stakeholders from different levels to be involved in this design process. Above all, we hope to draw on the experience of existing carbon markets around the world as well as from the seven pilot ETSs - comprising five cities and two provinces - set to start this year in China. Facilitating continuous technical dialogues, PMR serves as a knowledge exchange platform for our team from China and all the participant countries. This is a unique and valuable experience. 

Shaping the Next Generation of Carbon Markets

Rachel Kyte's picture

 Smoke coming out of two smokestacks at a factory in Estonia. - Photo: World Bank/Flickr

Right now, the carbon markets of the future are under construction in all corners of the world.

China is determined to pursue low-carbon development and is embracing the market as the most efficient way to do so. Wang Shu, the deputy director of China's National Development and Reform Commission, told us this week that he sees the "magic of the market" as the most efficient way to drive China's green growth.

Five Chinese cities and two provinces are piloting emissions trading systems with the goal of building a national carbon market. Chile is exploring an emissions trading system and focusing on energy efficiency and renewable energy. Mexico is developing market-based mechanisms in energy efficiency that could cut its emissions by as much as 30 percent by 2020. Costa Rica is aiming for a carbon-neutral economy by 2021.

Each of the countries pioneering market-based mechanisms to reduce their domestic carbon emissions are leaders. Bring them together in one room, and you begin to see progress and the enormous potential for a powerful networking domestic system that could begin to produce a predictable carbon price -- a sina que non for the speed and scale of climate action we need.

That's happening this week at the World Bank.

The Fight to End Wildlife Crime Is a Fight for Humanity

Valerie Hickey's picture

Available in ไทย

Elephants in Kenya. Curt Carnemark/World Bank

Elephant ivory is on the march. Not elephants, but their ivory. The elephants are left bloodied and dead on the range. So are many rangers who work to protect a country’s natural capital. In the past 10 years, over 1,000 rangers have been murdered in 35 countries alone; the International Ranger Federation tell us that as many as 5,000 may have been murdered worldwide in that time.
 

At the CITES COP – the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species – the halls in Bangkok ring loud with concern for the elephants and other charismatic species, particularly rhinos, that are being exterminated across Africa in pursuit of private profit, at the expense of communities that rely on nature for their food, shelter, start-up capital, and safety net in a warming world.


So why should the World Bank care? Our concern is to build strong economies and healthy communities by revving the engine of inclusive green growth as we prepare countries and communities for the impacts of climate change.

What does this have to do with elephant ivory you ask? Simply put, we cannot achieve our dream of a world without poverty without taking account of the rise in wildlife crime.

Of Gazelles and Gazillas

Megha Mukim's picture

Gazelle. Source: Bahman Farzad -- http://www.flickr.com/photos/21644167@N04/2104059837/sizes/m/in/photostream/Governments and policy makers often look to small and medium-sized enterprises to drive growth in developing economies. These SMEs are held up as incubators of creativity and entrepreneurship, pushing the market to change, expand, and better meet consumer needs. But perhaps SMEs aren’t the only category to applaud. Research has shown that certain firms, regardless of their size, create jobs, export goods, and generally grow faster than others. We think these are the firms to watch.

To explain, we use an animal analogy developed by David Birch. Birch classified firms into “mice,” small firms that tend to stay small; “elephants,” large firms that do not grow rapidly; and “gazelles,” firms that both grow rapidly and account for a large share of employment or revenue growth. These gazelling firms are key to nascent, growing economies. As Caroline Freund and Martha Denisse Peirola show in Export Superstars, a World Bank Research Policy Paper, it is often a few big firms that account for the lion’s share of national exports. Not only are these few good firms responsible for the largest growth in exports, they also contribute most of the export diversification. In fact, countries’ relative comparative advantage is defined by these large, well-performing firms.

World Bank Is Committed to Forest Communities

Rachel Kyte's picture

Read this post in Français

Curt Carnemark/World Bank

Here at the World Bank we believe that independent internal evaluation is central to strengthening our work. Rigorous, evidence-based evaluation informs the design of global programs and enhances the development impact of partner and country efforts.

The World Bank Group’s Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) has undertaken a review of the implementation of the 2002 Forest Strategy. The strategy emphasized the positive developmental benefits of forest conservation and management, while strengthening environmental and social safeguards.

The report confirms that the World Bank’s forest work has:

  • contributed substantially to positive environmental outcomes;
  • successfully reduced deforestation when forest protected areas are designed and managed by people who live in and around them;
  • improved livelihoods, especially through support for participatory forest management initiatives, which involve and empower local communities;
  • advanced the rule of law in a sector plagued by patronage, corruption, and rent-seeking by increasing transparency and accountability and by putting environmental standards in place.

But to be most useful, an evaluation must meet a quality standard.

While we agree with some of IEG’s findings, we – and our Board - strongly disagree with others.

Davos 2013: A Thief Stealing Bells Is Not an Optimist

Kevin Lu's picture

For the past five years, the participants to the Annual Meetings of the World Economic Forum (WEF) have gathered in Davos to discuss urgent global crises the world was facing: subprime lending, the credit crunch, banking, Greece, the euro zone’s woes, and so on. Soul-searching about the political and economic status quo ensued. This year, with leadership transitions in the two largest economies completed, the euro zone no longer facing imminent break-up, and China growing at 7.8%, Davos resumed some normalcy. Some even claimed optimism.

Some of the optimism is based on the growth prospects in Asia and China. For the past five years, while Europe has not grown at all, Chinese GDP has grown 60%. In this year’s Davos, there were no fewer than five public sessions on China, with topics ranging from its rapid growth, transformation of its growth model, and emergence of its soft power. Interests in Asia are high.

Longreads: Black Carbon, Combating Violence Against Women, Global Trends 2030, Boomtown Slum

Donna Barne's picture

Find a good longread on development? Tweet it to @worldbank with the hashtag #longreads.

 

LongreadsSatellite images of Beijing’s smog have been popping up on Twitter and blogs as the city suffers shockingly high air pollution levels. Some bloggers point out Beijing’s black skies aren’t so different from pre-1960s London or Pittsburgh in their industrial heyday. Even so, a new study warns that the heat-trapping effect of “black carbon,” or soot, is second only to CO2. Yale’s Environment 360 explains why cutting it could “go a long way to slowing climate change.” Check out cities with high air pollution levels in the Guardian’s data visualization showing exposure to outdoor air pollution, mapped by city.


(Source: Guardian)

Concern over the brutal and fatal rape of a young woman in India continues to grow. Former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown highlights a global online petition that has attracted more than a million signatures in “Without frontiers, young people mobilize for change.” On Twitter, plans for a February 14 worldwide event to raise awareness about violence against women are being spread using hashtag #1billionrising, For an academic read on the issue, check out a recent study, linked below, on combating violence against women, covering 40 years and 70 countries. It finds that the “mobilization of feminists…is the critical factor accounting for policy change.” What will the world be like 17 years from now? A new report by the National Intelligence Council -- Global Trends 2030 (pdf) -- is sparking interest. Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor Joseph S. Nye offers his take on the report’s “gamechangers” and megatrends. One key trend—urbanization—is keenly felt in Nairobi. The city’s Kibera slum is a place where “government is absent,” and where the economy is booming and incomes are rising, according to the Economist, adding it “may be the most entrepreneurial place on the planet.

Prospects Daily: Global stock markets rallied on Friday

Financial Markets…Global stock markets rallied on Friday, with the benchmark MSCI world equity index hitting a 20-month high level of 552.16, as positive economic data from the two world’s largest economies boosted market sentiment. Along with robust U.S. labor and housing market reports, China’s better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth (y/y), buoyant industrial production and retail sales figures added to signs that the global economic recovery is gaining traction.

Japanese yen fell further against the dollar, sliding to a 2 1/2 –year low of 90.21 per dollar in early-morning New York trade, amid speculation the Bank of Japan may start open-ending asset buying program later this month. The yen has depreciated 13% versus the dollar in the past 3 months as the Japanese government signaled greater stimulus measures to boost slumping economy, which may lower the currency and stoke inflation.

U.S. Treasuries rose slightly on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year yields sliding 2 basis points from the highest level in a week to 1.87%, as growing concerns over the country’s debt ceiling debate revived demand for the safe-haven government securities. U.S. lawmakers need to raise the nation’s $16.4 trillion debt ceiling next month, and they will also have to deal with the $110 billion in automatic spending cuts and an expiring short-term measure that funds government agencies in March.

High-income Economies…US consumer confidence fell for the second month in a row in December, with the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence index declining to 71.3 from 72.9 the previous month. More than a third of consumers referred to concerns related to fiscal cliff negotiations. The consumer expectations sub-index slipped to its lowest since November 2011.

UK retail sales fell 0.1% (m/m) in December, with sales only 0.3% (y/y) higher than a year earlier, underscoring the weakness of consumer spending as the economy continues to struggle after emerging from a double-dip recession in the third quarter of 2012.

Poland's industrial production plunged 14.2% (m/m) in December, the steepest fall in almost four years, with annual industrial output falling 10.6% (y/y). A part of the decline was due to fewer working days in December, but also reflects weak domestic demand and difficult economic conditions in key Euro Area export markets.

New industrial orders in Spain fell 1.5% (y/y) in November, reversing the 5.5% gain seen in October. While consumer goods orders fell 1.4% (y/y), orders of capital goods and energy products increased 4.7% and 7.5%.

Developing Economies…China's GDP growth was reported at 7.9% (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2012 showing a strong rebound from 7.4% growth in the third quarter.

Quarterly GDP growth rates have been revised for the last three quarters of 2011 and the third quarter of 2012. The revised quarterly growth rates were reported at: 11Q1 - 2.2%, 11Q2 - 2.4%, 11Q3 - 2.3%, 11Q4 - 1.9%, 12Q1 - 1.5%, 12Q2 - 2.0%, 12Q3 - 2.1% and 12Q4 - 2.0% respectively compared with the earlier 11Q1 - 2.2%, 11Q2 - 2.5%, 11Q3 - 2.4%, 11Q4 - 1.7%, 12Q1 - 1.5%, 12Q2 - 2.0% and 12Q3 - 2.2%. The revised quarterly numbers suggest a deceleration in GDP growth to 8.2% in the fourth quarter of 2012 from 8.7% reported in the third quarter.

Annual GDP growth was reported at 7.8% in 2012, the weakest growth rate since 1999 and lower than 9.3% achieved in 2011.

Industrial production in China grew 10.3% (y/y) in December, accelerating from 10.1% rise in November. Retail sales expanded 15.2% (y/y) in December, faster than the 14.9% growth in November. China's urban fixed asset investment in the 12 months through December increased 20.6% (y/y). Monthly price increase for the newly built homes was registered in 54 of the 70 cities surveyed. On an annual basis, 40 cities reported increase in prices in December compared to 25 cities in November.

Chile's central bank kept its monetary policy rate steady at 5.0%. Inflation in Chile eased to 1.5% in December 2.1% in November remaining below the central bank’s 3.0% annual target.

Mexico's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, but indicated that it is considering monetary easing in light of weak growth and moderating inflation.

World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, January 2013 featured in The Economist.

#2 from 2012: Media (R)evolutions: Global Internet Use

Kalliope Kokolis's picture

Our Top Ten Blog Posts by Readership in 2012

Originally published on April 4, 2012

New developments and curiosities from a changing global media landscape: People, Spaces, Deliberation brings trends and events to your attention that illustrate that tomorrow's media environment will look very different from today's, and will have little resemblance to yesterday's.

Webinar Jan. 10: Urbanization Along the Waterfront

Parul Agarwala's picture

Riverfront as cultural center, IndiaHistorically, cities and civilizations have flourished along water bodies, which not only served as important transportation corridors to spur economic activity and trade, but also as prominent public spaces for religious and cultural interaction. Today, while a large number of cities have turned away from this important natural resource, many have reclaimed and transformed their waterfronts into thriving economic engines and nodes of social activity. Can cities redefine their relationship with water while managing challenges of rapid urbanization?

The World Bank’s South Asia Sustainable Development Unit, in collaboration with East Asia Pacific Sustainable Development Unit, is organizing a webinar on waterfront development to discuss different dimensions of waterfront initiatives and tools for a sustainable regenerative economic environment.

Prospects Daily: Euro Area services PMI rises; Brazil’s industrial production slows; Philippines’ 2012 inflation improved

Financial Markets…The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1% in Friday morning trade and the dollar weakened 0.2% versus the euro after a U.S. Labor Department report showed a slightly slower than expected employment growth in December. The S&P500 has advanced 4.1% this week, gearing for its largest weekly gain in 13 months.

10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose 4 basis points to 1.95%, paring some losses after climbing to a nine-month high of 1.97% before a government report on U.S. employment. Treasuries extended losses yesterday as investors feared the possibility of U.S. Federal Reserve ending its $85 billion monthly bond purchase program sometime this year.

Developing-stock markets fell for the first time in 10 days, with the benchmark MSCI index sliding 0.6% from a 17-month high closing yesterday, after Fed policy makers said they may end their stimulus monetary policy. Emerging-market stocks jumped 108% during the first round of so-called quantitative easing, and they have advanced 9.5% since the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a third round on September 13.

High-income Economies…U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose 155,000 in December, below the 161,000 increase in November, with a slower pace of increase in private sector employment and a drop in public sector employment. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.8% in December.

U.S. factory orders were flat in November, following a 0.8% (m/m) rise the previous month. However, nondefense capital goods order excluding aircrafts – a proxy for future business investment – rose a robust 2.6% (m/m) following a 3% rise the previous month. The ISM non-manufacturing index for the U.S. index rose to 56.1 in December (the highest reading since February) from 54.7 in November.

Euro Area consumer price inflation remained steady at 2.2% (y/y) in December according to preliminary estimates, the same rate as November, as a weakening pace of year-on-year increases in energy prices was offset by a slight pickup in food and services inflation. The overall inflation rate remains above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Markit’s services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Euro Area rose to 47.8 in December from 46.7 in November, suggesting a slower pace of contraction in services sectors (An index level below 50 indicates contraction). Despite an earlier reported modest decline in the manufacturing PMI (to 46.1 from 46.2), a composite index that includes both manufacturing and services rose to 47.2 from 46.5 in November.

Services PMI for Germany rose above the 50-mark to 52.0 in December from 49.7 in November. PMIs rose in Italy (to 45.6 from 44.6) and Spain (to 44.3 from 42.4), but fell in France (to 45.2 from 45.8). Services PMI for Ireland fell to 55.8 from 56.1, but indicating a still robust pace of expansion.

German retail sales rose 1.2% (m/m) in November, almost reversing a 1.3% drop the previous month. Retail sales were 0.9% lower than a year earlier in November.

Developing Economies…China’s HSBC business activity index for service sector declined to 51.7 in December from 52.1 in November suggesting a continued, but somewhat weaker expansion of service sector activity in December compared to November. An earlier survey by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics suggested that that China's service sector growth accelerated to a four-month high in December.

Residential property prices in China increased for the first time in nine months in December, though at a marginal rate, indicating that the property market is on a recovery path. The house price index, which measures the average cost of a new home in 100 major cities, moved up 0.03% on an annual basis in December, ending eight months of declines.

Inflation in the Philippines edged up to 2.9% in December from 2.8% in November, mainly on the account of higher inflation for food, beverages and tobacco. The annual average inflation rate in 2012 at 3.1% was the lowest registered over the past five years. Inflation in 2012 was also significantly lower than 4.7% attained in 2011.

Brazil's industrial production decreased 1% (y/y) in November following a 2.5% growth in October, pulled down by decrease in production of capital goods. On a monthly basis, industrial production also fell by 0.6% in November.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s Markit Economics activity index for services sector, which increased to 53.5 in December from 52.5 in November, suggests that service sector expanded at the fastest rate in nine months in December.

Prospects Daily: Global equities decline after US budget talks stall and US consumer confidence falls

The Prospects Daily will be on Winter recess and will resume on

Wednesday January 2nd, 2013.

Financial Markets…Global equities declined and US Treasuries gained after the Congress failed to agree on a plan to allow higher taxes on those earning more than $1 million as budget talks stalled. The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 0.8% at 10:44 a.m. in New York and the Standard Poor’s 500 Index slumped 0.9%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.4%, falling from a 19-month high. US Treasuries rose, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries decreasing five basis points to 1.75 percent.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index slid 1.1%, its biggest drop in more than five weeks. China’s stocks retreated from a four-month high on concern that the rally from the beginning of this month was excessive. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7%. India’s Sensex slid 1.1%.

High-income Economies…US durable goods orders rose 0.7% (m/m) in November, following an upwardly revised 1.1% gain in October. Orders for capital goods excluding defense and aircraft – a proxy for future business investment – rose 2.7% (m/m) building on an upwardly revised 3.2% gain in October.

US consumer sentiment, however, slumped in December, with the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index falling sharply to 72.9 from 82.7 in November, reflecting consumers’ concerns about uncertainty over negotiations on tax hikes and spending cuts that are set to come into effect in the new year.

UK GDP growth for the third quarter was revised slightly down to 0.9% (q/q) (implying an annualized rate of 3.6% q/q) from the earlier reported 1.0%. Despite the downward revision, this was the UK economy's best performance since the second quarter of 2010.

Denmark’s GDP grew at an annualized 1.2% (q/q) in the third quarter, following a 2.8% annualized decline in the second quarter.

Canada’s consumer price fell to the lowest in three years in November, declining to 0.8% (y/y) compared with 1.2% in October. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.2% due to declines in fuel costs and automobile prices. Inflation is now below the central bank’s 1%-3% target range.

Poland’s retail sales growth slowed to 2.4% (y/y) in November from 3.3% in October, falling 6.4% (m/m), pointing to a slowing consumer demand amid high unemployment. Poland's unemployment rate rose to 12.9% in November from 12.5% in October.

Developing Economies…Argentina's industrial production dropped 1.4% (y/y) in November and declined 2.1% (m/m) versus October, due to slowing down of Brazilian demand for Argentine automobiles as well as decline in investment and domestic demand.

Brazil's unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% in November from 5.3% in October. November figure was the lowest since December 2011, when the jobless rate was 4.7%.

Colombia’s GDP growth slowed to 2.1% (y/y) in the third quarter from 4.9% in the second quarter, to a large extent due to a 12.3% drop in construction. On a quarterly basis Colombian economy contracted 0.7% (q/q) in the third quarter. The Government of Colombia lowered economic growth forecast for full-year 2012 to 4-4.5%, due to weak expansion in the third quarter, from a previous targeted 4.8%.

Prospects Weekly: Flows into the bond and equity funds of developing countries rallied in the second half of this year

Flows into the bond and equity funds of developing countries rallied in the second half of this year amid stabilization of financial markets and quantitative easing in high income countries. Following a weak second quarter due to financial market tumult, growth has picked up in the developing world, notably in China – although output growth slowed in India and South Africa due to country-specific factors. The strengthening of developing-country activity (and imports) has been reflected in a modest improvement in high income country growth, but the continuing weakness in the Euro Area, fiscal uncertainties in the United States, and weak Japanese sales to China have limited the overall improvement.
Foreign portfolio flows to developing countries rallied in the second half of 2012. Capital flows into emerging market bond and equity funds have picked up since July, in line with the general improvement in global financial conditions. After $9.6 billion exited equity funds in May/June, some $10 billion flowed in during September-November. Overall, net inflows for 2012 through end November reached $22 billion. This is a marked improvement from $41.2 billion outflow during the first 11 months of 2011, but only a third of the inflows in 2010. In comparison, flows to emerging-market fixed-income (bond) funds were relatively stable in the May/June period. Inflows into bond funds have totaled $61.6 billion in the year to date, more than twice the $25.7 billion in 2011 and surpassing the $60.2 billion received during the same period in 2010.
GDP growth for developing countries as a whole picked up in the third quarter, but weakened in a few due to country-specific factors. Partly as a result of stimulus measures and bolstered by improving US growth (see below), GDP growth in China picked up to a 9.1% annualized rate in the third quarter, up from 8.2% in Q2 and 6.1% in Q1. Russia’s growth also picked up to 2.3% in Q3, supported by a rise in crude oil prices (itself reflecting the strengthening of global activity). The pace of expansion in Brazil also improved, but remained modest at 1.3% (versus 0.8% in Q2). In contrast, mining tensions caused South Africa’s growth to slow from 3.4% in Q2 to 1.2% in Q3. In India, annualized GDP growth slowed from 5.8% to 3.8% as a result of delayed monsoon rains and weak industrial activity. In other developing countries, output growth accelerated from 3.7% in Q2 to 4.3% in Q3. Overall, GDP growth in developing countries remains 4 percentage points higher than in high income countries.
Following several quarters of deceleration, growth in high income countries has also started to improve, partly in response to an increase in developing country imports. Reflecting both weak Euro Area domestic demand and accelerating developing country imports, rising net exports moderated the annualized pace of GDP decline in the Euro Area from –0.7% in the second quarter to –0.2% in the third quarter. In the US, GDP growth strengthened to 2.7% in Q3, from 1.3% in Q2, as the housing sector started to rebound after years of consolidation. The recovery would have been stronger had uncertainty over fiscal policy not contributed to a decline in investment spending. In Japan, an end to earlier stimulus measures plus weak demand from China (in part due to island-related disputes) led to a 3.5% contraction in Q3 GDP. In other high income countries GDP growth picked up modestly to 1.5% in Q3 from 0.4% in Q2.

Download the Prospects Weekly as PDF here.


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