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Future Development Forecasts 2015

Shanta Devarajan's picture

Despite their mixed record last year, Future Development's bloggers once again offer their predictions for 2015.  Eight themes emerge.
 
1. Global growth and trade. The US economy will strengthen far above predictions. Together with lower oil prices and a better business climate in emerging markets, this will create substantial positive spill-overs, including to the smaller export-oriented Asian economies, boosting the growth of their manufactured exports well above recent trends. The US will look to open new free trade agreements in Asia—India may try to join—and seek opportunities to do the same in Africa. Meanwhile, Germany will face increasing resistance to the free-trade agreement with America (TTIP), just as Angela Merkel celebrates her 10th year in office.

Let’s All Play Antakshari, Shall We?

Delilah Liu's picture
Delilah Liu/World Bank

On Dec 24th 2014, Christmas Eve, I went into the reception room of Hotel Namgay Heritage in Thimphu, Bhutan to look for some students to interview for my story on the 11th South Asia Economic Students Meet (SAESM). To my surprise, I saw five sofas filled with students, as if they were waiting for me. The cruel reality was, the students from India, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan were singing without even noticing my entrance into the room.
 
They were playing an Indian parlor game (later explained to me by an Indian student) called Antakshari, where each team grouped by the sofa sings the first verse of a Bollywood movie song that begins with the consonant on which the previous team's song selection ended. Though Bollywood movies and songs are often in Hindi; somehow the Afghans who speak Pashto and Dari, Pakistanis who speak Urdu, Bangladeshis speaking Bengali and the Nepali speaking Nepalese were all able to understand each other and sing along.

Five ways technology is improving public services

Ravi Kumar's picture

If you live in a country where electricity never or rarely goes out, you are lucky. In my country, Nepal, we are pleased when we get uninterrupted electricity for even eight hours a day.

Like Nepal, many countries around the world struggle to deliver basic services to their citizens. But things are slowly improving.Here are five examples of how technology is improving public services.

1. Participatory budgeting

Community health worker at the Marechal Health Center
Photo Credit: Dominic Chavez/World Bank

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, citizens of South Kivu Province are using “mSurvey” to obtain information about budget meetings. Using just their mobile phones, they can actively monitor, discover what was decided at meetings, and evaluate those decisions via online voting. The Participatory Budgeting project encourages accountability by actively reminding local authorities of their commitments while ensuring that citizens are getting services they deserve.

Three key lessons from the 2004 Tsunami

Abhas Jha's picture



I began my professional career as a sub-district and district level administrator in India-a position that makes one responsible for pretty much everything- from making sure the water comes out of the taps and the garbage is collected in the morning to helping pull accident victims out from horrific accidents and facing down stone-pelting mobs. This early experience of being thrown into the deep end of the pool gives me a somewhat pragmatic sense of perspective and equanimity. But I still recall the horror and overwhelming grief that I felt when the full impact of the 2004 Tsunami started becoming clear. In Indonesia alone approximately 220,000 people lost their lives.

How Well did We Forecast 2014?

Shanta Devarajan's picture

A year ago, we polled Future Development bloggers for predictions on the coming year (2014).  Looking back, we find that many unforeseen (and possibly unforeseeable) events had major economic impact. 

We missed the developments in Ukraine and Russia, the spread of the Islamic State in Iraq, the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, the collapse in oil prices and their attendant effects on economic growth.  At the same time, we picked the winner of the soccer World Cup, and got many of the technology trends right. Perhaps economists are better at predicting non-economic events.

Here’s the scorecard on the seven predictions made:
 

Here is a model Indian States can implement to ensure smooth flow of medical supplies to health facilities

Shanker Lal's picture
Photo: John Isaac / World Bank

Though the Indian government has steadily increased funding for its health sector, per capita allocation is still low; reform is thus critical to effectively utilize the available budget.

​The underlying question is: Given a set of resources, how do you procure goods in a way that achieves value for money and maximum efficiency?

In India, procurement of health sector goods has been a major concern for the government. Drugs and medical supplies are not procured and distributed in time, and this interruption in the delivery of services in health facilities affect the general population’s health outcomes.

Discussing India's Open Data Initiative: where next?

Oleg Petrov's picture

More than 200 high-level federal and state officials in India will convene on December 11 in New Delhi, for the India National Open Data and Open API Conference. The conference is organized by the Department of Electronics and Information Technology (DeitY) in the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology in the Government of India and National Informatics Centre (NIC).

Shri Ravi Shankar Prasad, Honorable Minister of Communications and Information Technology, will deliver the keynote address. The World Bank is pleased to support this event and to bring leading international experts — including Jeanne Holm, Senior Open Data Consultant at the World Bank and former evangelist for the U.S. Government's Data.gov, and Laura Manley, Project Manager of Open Data 500 at GovLab in New York University — to share knowledge and hold discussions about the advancement of India’s Open Data initiative.
 
Over the course of the conference, participants will discuss India’s Open Data policy and platform, gain insights of the officials from several federal and state agencies, and hear about latest best practices on Open API policy. Social aspects, including community engagement with Open Government data, will also be covered.

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