Like a growing number of development economists, I am now convinced of a simple truth about our understanding of economic development: hope is underrated. Indeed the importance of hope and aspirations among the poor are the subject of a growing literature, where work by researchers such as Debraj Ray and
Sometimes trade policy works through unexpected channels. In the case of Indonesia, opening the services sector to foreign investment appears to be a way to significantly boost the productivity of domestic manufacturing firms, according to recent joint research from the World Bank’s Office in Indonesia and the International Trade Department. This finding has implications for governments around the world that have restricted foreign investment in services – such as transport, electricity and communications – that are vital to other productive sectors in the economy.
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Elephant ivory is on the march. Not elephants, but their ivory. The elephants are left bloodied and dead on the range. So are many rangers who work to protect a country’s natural capital. In the past 10 years, over 1,000 rangers have been murdered in 35 countries alone; the International Ranger Federation tell us that as many as 5,000 may have been murdered worldwide in that time.
At the CITES COP – the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species – the halls in Bangkok ring loud with concern for the elephants and other charismatic species, particularly rhinos, that are being exterminated across Africa in pursuit of private profit, at the expense of communities that rely on nature for their food, shelter, start-up capital, and safety net in a warming world.
So why should the World Bank care? Our concern is to build strong economies and healthy communities by revving the engine of inclusive green growth as we prepare countries and communities for the impacts of climate change.
What does this have to do with elephant ivory you ask? Simply put, we cannot achieve our dream of a world without poverty without taking account of the rise in wildlife crime.
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Jiwo Damar Anarkie from Indonesia is a young co-founder of the Future Leaders for Anti-Corruption (FLAC) a local NGO, and he uses storytelling and hand puppets to teach integrity to elementary school students.
"They're very young, at the stage where character building is still possible. Storytelling is one of the most effective ways to do so," said Anarkie.
The organization did an initial road show in four schools in Jakarta, and later built partnerships with Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi (KPK, Corruption Eradication Commission), allowing the team to reach more schools in more cities as well as to train more storytellers and purchase more hand puppets.
Indonesia is estimated to have the largest geothermal potential in the world – 27,000 megawatts, or roughly 40 percent of total global geothermal resources. But currently, only 4 percent of that potential is being used to produce electricity. Even at the current level of development, however, Indonesia is the third largest geothermal producer in the world in terms of installed capacity, following the United States and the Philippines.
After months of preparation, the Sanitation Hackathon weekend is upon us.
In dozens of countries around the world, IT and sanitation experts will join forces for an intensive brainstorming and programming marathon to develop innovative applications for some of the world’s sanitation challenges.
They both hold the potential to help meet the needs of the poor and end poverty. New ideas and innovative solutions are critical to address the 2.5 billion people who lack access to proper sanitation. Lack of access to clean water and sanitation kills more than 4,000 children a day and a lack of sanitation results in billions of dollars in economic losses to developing countries. Now that more people have access to a mobile phone than to a toilet or latrine, it’s time to leverage technology to help reach development goals.
| Private capital flows to developing countries eased in October, but remain close to their highest level in more than a year, led by robust bond issuance by emerging market sovereigns and firms. Business sentiment has strengthened in some countries, including the US and several emerging markets, but remains weak in general amid US “fiscal cliff” and Euro Area risks. In the US, new discoveries and innovations have pushed down domestic prices of natural gas, creating arbitrage opportunities between domestic and international markets. | |
| Private capital flows to developing countries remain high, despite easing in October. Gross international capital flows to developing countries equaled $49 billion in October, the second highest inflow over the past 15 months, but down from the record $71bn of inflows during September. Euro Area debt turmoil in May caused capital flows to slow, but stabilization of financial market tensions and high-income monetary policy prompted the recent uptick in flows. Bond issuance was particularly strong at $32 billion in October, with 44% of the total destined for the financial sector. Notable issues included a $2 billion bond sale by Russia’s Sberbank, a $1.5 billion offering of 10-year sovereign bonds by Chile, and a $500 million sale by Bolivia (its first in nearly a century). New equity issuance and bank lending (especially to Emerging Europe and Latin America) moderated, partly because low bond yields made bonds a more attractive option for some borrowers.
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| Business sentiment indicators have strengthened in several countries, but remain weak in general amid risks to the global economy. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for October suggest a strengthening of activity in the US as labor and housing markets continue to improve. PMIs also gained ground and suggest expansion in Brazil, Indonesia, India, Russia, and Turkey. In China, however, both the official and Markit PMI are below or close to the no-growth 50 threshold despite recent accelerations in industrial activity. Similarly, the manufacturing PMI for both core and periphery Euro Area countries points strongly toward further contraction, despite a stabilization and even small gains in industrial activity during recent months. Business pessimism may be reflecting market worries that the U.S. fiscal cliff or Euro Area tensions could flare up dampening demand and prospects—a view seemingly supported by weak sales of capital goods.
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| The wide gap between U.S. natural gas prices and European natural gas and crude oil prices suggests downside risks on oil prices. The post-2005 increase in crude oil prices induced innovation in both natural gas and oil extraction technologies such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. A 28 percent increase in U.S. natural gas production between 2005 and 2011 has depressed domestic prices. Low prices have induced electrical and petro-chemical producers to substitute natural gas for coal, but a similar shift by the transportation industry has yet to take place, in part due to the absence of distribution networks and safety concerns. So far, export licensing requirements have prevented U.S. producers from selling into world markets where natural gas prices are much higher. U.S. natural gas costs only 29 and 20 percent as much as European and Japanese gas. Should licenses become more readily available, the arrival of US gas on international markets could exert significant downward pressures on international prices of both natural gas and crude oil.
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Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland and South Africa are among the world’s largest emerging economies. And in the past five years, all have made substantive shifts towards lower-carbon growth strategies – shifts that are still underway. In 2007, these countries represented 33 percent of global CO2 emissions. By 2010, three of them – Brazil, China and India – accounted for over 40 percent of global investment in renewable energy.
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| Children participate in an earthquake drill. |
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| Anak berpartisipasi dalam latihan menghadapi gempa bumi. |
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Financial Markets…US treasuries gained and the benchmark 10-year bond yield edged down 1 basis point to 1.66%, after rising as high as 1.7% earlier, while the 30-year bond yield slid by 2 bps to 2.83% in early Friday session after a government report on wholesale price in September showed domestic inflation remained muted.
The euro advanced 0.3% to $1.297 after dropping to a 10-day low of $1.283 yesterday, and it gained 0.4% to 101.7 yen amid speculation that a downgrade of Spain’s sovereign rating would put pressure on the government to finally request a sovereign bailout.
Spanish government bonds rose and 10-year Spanish bond yields fell 9 basis points to 5.67%, gearing for the lowest level in nearly a month, on the prospect of European Central Bank intervention to support its debt.
High-income Economies…Euro Area industrial production rose 0.6% (m/m) in August, the same pace as that recorded in July, with increases in France (+1.5% m/m), Italy (+1.7%), Spain (+1.3%), and Greece (+2.5%) offsetting a 0.4% fall in Germany, Eurozone’s largest economy. Despite the monthly increase, Euro Area industrial output was 2.9% lower in August compared to the same month in 2011.
The US Thomson Reuters-University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 83.1 in October, the highest in five years, from 78.3 in September as consumers’ optimism about the overall economy improved.
US producer prices rose 1.1% (m/m) in September following a 1.7% rise in August, mainly due to an increase in gasoline prices. On a year-on-year basis, however, overall PPI inflation edged up to 2.1% from 2.0% in August. Core PPI which excludes food and energy remained flat compared to the previous month.
France’s current account deficit widened to 4bn euros in August from 2.6bn euros in July, as the trade deficit rose with an increase in energy-led imports offsetting an improved exports performance.
The Netherlands’ trade surplus narrowed to 2.2bn euros in August from 2.95bn euros in July, as imports rose +2.2% (m/m) from robust domestic demand, while exports fell 0.5%.
Singapore's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% (y/y) in the third quarter from 2.3% recorded in the second quarter, pulled down by a 1.5% (q/q) contraction driven by a decline in the manufacturing sector’s electronics cluster due to weak external demand.
Slovakia’s consumer price inflation eased to 3.6% (y/y) in September from 3.7% in August led by a slower pace of increase in utility prices.
Developing Economies…Bulgaria's consumer price inflation accelerated to 4.9% (y/y) in September from 3.9% in August, partly due to a sharp increase in food and fuel prices. Prices continue to advance rapidly in the second half of 2012 following an earlier period of decline.
India’s industrial production increased 2.7% (y/y) in August following a 0.2% contraction in July, led by a 5% growth of consumer goods production. India’s consumer price inflation eased to 9.7% (y/y) in September from 10.0% in August driven by a small decline in food inflation.
Malaysia's industrial production declined 0.7% (y/y) in August following a 2.9% increase in July, as manufacturing sector continued to struggle in the face of weak external demand.
Mexico’s industrial output growth slowed to 3.6% in August from 4.9% (y/y) in July, pulled down by a 0.8% (m/m) contraction in August, mirroring industrial developments in the United States.
The central banks of Indonesia, Peru and Singapore held their respective policy rates unchanged this week.
Another day, another, errm Day. Ahead of tomorrow’s International Day for Disaster Reduction (hold the front page….), Debbie Hillier, Oxfam’s Humanitarian PolicyAdviser (right), explores the links between DRR and inequality
I have never understood why disaster risk reduction (DRR) gets so little attention – from governments, donors and the aid system in general. Be honest, how many of you know what the Hyogo Framework for Action is, or know what UNISDR stands for? This is despite the proven effectiveness and – the holy grail - value for money of disaster risk reduction. Frankly speaking, it’s a no-brainer.
We all seem to understand the imperative for prevention when it comes to vaccinations and insurance, but somehow this falls apart when it comes to reducing the impacts of disasters. For national governments, I suppose that time delays between public investment in risk reduction and benefits when hazards are infrequent, and the political invisibility of successful risk reduction can be pressures for a NIMTOF (Not in My Term of Office) attitude that leads to inaction. And donors prefer the Superman of high profile disaster response to the Clark Kent of disaster risk reduction.
