Poland

Talking to 4,000 Women & Men about Gender: What Surprised Us Most

In a new study on gender equality, researchers asked 4,000 people in 20 countries to describe the gender norms in their communities and the influence those norms have on their lives and their every-day decisions. The researchers spoke with men and women, youth and adults, living in villages and cities in developing countries, as well as higher income countries.

Here, three of the researchers describe their most memorable experiences from the interviews and the findings that surprised them the most.

Women in the Workforce – a Growing Need in Emerging Europe and Central Asia

Emerging Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is an interesting region because what you expect is not always what exists. Since this is written in honor of International Women's Day, discussing women’s labor market participation seems appropriate. The standard indicator used for this is the “female labor force participation” (LFP) rate, which is the proportion of all women between 15-64 years who either work or are looking for work.

Since much of the region has a common socialist legacy, you would expect to see similar labor market behavior among women. However, the proportion of women who work ranges from a low of 42 percent in Bosnia and Herzegovina to 74 percent of adult women in Kazakhstan. And it wasn’t 20 years of social and economic transition that led to this divergence. Even in 1990, the range was about the same. The exception was Moldova which saw a 26 percentage point decline.

Targets and Measures, Poverty and Sharing

In his latest Annual Letter, Bill Gates points to the power of measurement. Change, he reminds us, is often incremental; and so, unless we have a good yardstick, it is difficult to know if the small move we made was in the right direction. Not surprisingly, in the world of technology, new ways to measure energy creation and a micrometer able to gauge miniscule distances, played a vital role in promoting progress. Gates is right in stressing this and that is the reason why even in social and economic ventures, it is important to develop measures that track how we are doing.

Interestingly, the publication of Gates’ letter coincides with the ongoing initiative within the World Bank Group to define targets and measures of well-being that the Bank as a multilateral agency will promote and pursue. We hope to soon be in a position to place our measures and targets in public space. This blog is meant to give readers a flavor of the issues involved and to welcome their suggestions.

Let me begin by advising readers that, when reading Bill Gates, it is important to keep in mind that there is more to learn from successful people’s lives than lines. Gates’ Annual Letter on measurement is an important take away, but we must not forget what his life amply demonstrates--that to focus solely on measurement is to risk missing out on some essential features of life which may be nebulous and not quite measureable but nonetheless important.

Prospects Daily: Global stock markets rallied on Friday

Financial Markets…Global stock markets rallied on Friday, with the benchmark MSCI world equity index hitting a 20-month high level of 552.16, as positive economic data from the two world’s largest economies boosted market sentiment. Along with robust U.S. labor and housing market reports, China’s better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth (y/y), buoyant industrial production and retail sales figures added to signs that the global economic recovery is gaining traction.

Japanese yen fell further against the dollar, sliding to a 2 1/2 –year low of 90.21 per dollar in early-morning New York trade, amid speculation the Bank of Japan may start open-ending asset buying program later this month. The yen has depreciated 13% versus the dollar in the past 3 months as the Japanese government signaled greater stimulus measures to boost slumping economy, which may lower the currency and stoke inflation.

U.S. Treasuries rose slightly on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year yields sliding 2 basis points from the highest level in a week to 1.87%, as growing concerns over the country’s debt ceiling debate revived demand for the safe-haven government securities. U.S. lawmakers need to raise the nation’s $16.4 trillion debt ceiling next month, and they will also have to deal with the $110 billion in automatic spending cuts and an expiring short-term measure that funds government agencies in March.

High-income Economies…US consumer confidence fell for the second month in a row in December, with the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence index declining to 71.3 from 72.9 the previous month. More than a third of consumers referred to concerns related to fiscal cliff negotiations. The consumer expectations sub-index slipped to its lowest since November 2011.

UK retail sales fell 0.1% (m/m) in December, with sales only 0.3% (y/y) higher than a year earlier, underscoring the weakness of consumer spending as the economy continues to struggle after emerging from a double-dip recession in the third quarter of 2012.

Poland's industrial production plunged 14.2% (m/m) in December, the steepest fall in almost four years, with annual industrial output falling 10.6% (y/y). A part of the decline was due to fewer working days in December, but also reflects weak domestic demand and difficult economic conditions in key Euro Area export markets.

New industrial orders in Spain fell 1.5% (y/y) in November, reversing the 5.5% gain seen in October. While consumer goods orders fell 1.4% (y/y), orders of capital goods and energy products increased 4.7% and 7.5%.

Developing Economies…China's GDP growth was reported at 7.9% (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2012 showing a strong rebound from 7.4% growth in the third quarter.

Quarterly GDP growth rates have been revised for the last three quarters of 2011 and the third quarter of 2012. The revised quarterly growth rates were reported at: 11Q1 - 2.2%, 11Q2 - 2.4%, 11Q3 - 2.3%, 11Q4 - 1.9%, 12Q1 - 1.5%, 12Q2 - 2.0%, 12Q3 - 2.1% and 12Q4 - 2.0% respectively compared with the earlier 11Q1 - 2.2%, 11Q2 - 2.5%, 11Q3 - 2.4%, 11Q4 - 1.7%, 12Q1 - 1.5%, 12Q2 - 2.0% and 12Q3 - 2.2%. The revised quarterly numbers suggest a deceleration in GDP growth to 8.2% in the fourth quarter of 2012 from 8.7% reported in the third quarter.

Annual GDP growth was reported at 7.8% in 2012, the weakest growth rate since 1999 and lower than 9.3% achieved in 2011.

Industrial production in China grew 10.3% (y/y) in December, accelerating from 10.1% rise in November. Retail sales expanded 15.2% (y/y) in December, faster than the 14.9% growth in November. China's urban fixed asset investment in the 12 months through December increased 20.6% (y/y). Monthly price increase for the newly built homes was registered in 54 of the 70 cities surveyed. On an annual basis, 40 cities reported increase in prices in December compared to 25 cities in November.

Chile's central bank kept its monetary policy rate steady at 5.0%. Inflation in Chile eased to 1.5% in December 2.1% in November remaining below the central bank’s 3.0% annual target.

Mexico's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, but indicated that it is considering monetary easing in light of weak growth and moderating inflation.

World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, January 2013 featured in The Economist.

Why Have FDI Flows to Emerging Europe Remained Stable in Recent Years?

Eleven of the less prosperous members of the European Union – Bulgaria, Croatia¹, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia (EU11)—have remained attractive destinations for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The Czech Republic, Estonia, and Slovakia witnessed FDI levels in 2012 similar to pre-crisis levels. Poland and Bulgaria also experienced large gains in FDI in 2012.

Prospects Daily: Global equities decline after US budget talks stall and US consumer confidence falls

The Prospects Daily will be on Winter recess and will resume on

Wednesday January 2nd, 2013.

Financial Markets…Global equities declined and US Treasuries gained after the Congress failed to agree on a plan to allow higher taxes on those earning more than $1 million as budget talks stalled. The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 0.8% at 10:44 a.m. in New York and the Standard Poor’s 500 Index slumped 0.9%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.4%, falling from a 19-month high. US Treasuries rose, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries decreasing five basis points to 1.75 percent.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index slid 1.1%, its biggest drop in more than five weeks. China’s stocks retreated from a four-month high on concern that the rally from the beginning of this month was excessive. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7%. India’s Sensex slid 1.1%.

High-income Economies…US durable goods orders rose 0.7% (m/m) in November, following an upwardly revised 1.1% gain in October. Orders for capital goods excluding defense and aircraft – a proxy for future business investment – rose 2.7% (m/m) building on an upwardly revised 3.2% gain in October.

US consumer sentiment, however, slumped in December, with the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index falling sharply to 72.9 from 82.7 in November, reflecting consumers’ concerns about uncertainty over negotiations on tax hikes and spending cuts that are set to come into effect in the new year.

UK GDP growth for the third quarter was revised slightly down to 0.9% (q/q) (implying an annualized rate of 3.6% q/q) from the earlier reported 1.0%. Despite the downward revision, this was the UK economy's best performance since the second quarter of 2010.

Denmark’s GDP grew at an annualized 1.2% (q/q) in the third quarter, following a 2.8% annualized decline in the second quarter.

Canada’s consumer price fell to the lowest in three years in November, declining to 0.8% (y/y) compared with 1.2% in October. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.2% due to declines in fuel costs and automobile prices. Inflation is now below the central bank’s 1%-3% target range.

Poland’s retail sales growth slowed to 2.4% (y/y) in November from 3.3% in October, falling 6.4% (m/m), pointing to a slowing consumer demand amid high unemployment. Poland's unemployment rate rose to 12.9% in November from 12.5% in October.

Developing Economies…Argentina's industrial production dropped 1.4% (y/y) in November and declined 2.1% (m/m) versus October, due to slowing down of Brazilian demand for Argentine automobiles as well as decline in investment and domestic demand.

Brazil's unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% in November from 5.3% in October. November figure was the lowest since December 2011, when the jobless rate was 4.7%.

Colombia’s GDP growth slowed to 2.1% (y/y) in the third quarter from 4.9% in the second quarter, to a large extent due to a 12.3% drop in construction. On a quarterly basis Colombian economy contracted 0.7% (q/q) in the third quarter. The Government of Colombia lowered economic growth forecast for full-year 2012 to 4-4.5%, due to weak expansion in the third quarter, from a previous targeted 4.8%.

How do Emerging Economies Achieve Economic Growth While Keeping Carbon Emissions Low?

Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland and South Africa are among the world’s largest emerging economies. And in the past five years, all have made substantive shifts towards lower-carbon growth strategies – shifts that are still underway. In 2007, these countries represented 33 percent of global CO2 emissions. By 2010, three of them – Brazil, China and India – accounted for over 40 percent of global investment in renewable energy.

The Warsaw Initiative

Old square surrounding Zamkowy Statue in Warsaw, Poland. Photo: Istockphoto.com Through its forthcoming European Union presidency Poland should inspire other regions of the world that seek their own development path. By no means do current turbulences and crisis disturbances shatter the need of European integration. Just the opposite, they make it stronger. European integration works and will get through this confusion.

Working Together, Governments and Unions of Top-Performing Countries Show that it is Possible to Improve the Teaching Profession

Last week, I traveled to New York City to attend the first International Summit on the Teaching Profession hosted by the US Department of Education, the OECD, and Education International, a global teachers union. Of the 16 countries represented, all were top-performers in the international PISA tests, or rapid improvers, such as Poland and Brazil. U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan called the meeting to learn from what other countries are doing to improve teaching and learning, a sign that not only is this task complex and challenging, but that it is critical to countries at all levels of development.

So how do these top-performers and rapid-improvers manage their teaching forces to achieve high learning outcomes? The goal of the Summit was to have frank and open discussions about what works. Each country’s delegation included both government and teacher representatives, thus recognizing from the start the need for collaboration in the design and implementation of teacher policy reforms.

Prospects Daily: U.S. Service sector expands in Septmeber

Important developments today:

1. German government bond climbs amid demand for safe-haven assets

2. U.S. service sector expands in September

3. The euro zone’s services PMI fell from 55.9 in August to 54.1 in September

German government bond climbs amid demand for safe-haven assets. German bund yields fell to their lowest in more than a month on Tuesday morning as Moody’s Investor Service placed Irish debt on review for a possible downgrade and the Bank of Japan expanded quantitative-easing programs, boosting demand for benchmark government securities. The BOJ cut its key interest rate further to almost zero as it tries to shore up the country’s faltering economy. The yield on the 10-year German bund fell 4 basis points (bps) to 2.22%, while two-year bund yields declined 3 bps to 0.81%. Moody’s warned that it was considering lowering Ireland’s credit rating by a one notch to ‘Aa3’ from ‘Aa2 amid concerns over the country’s economic recovery.

U.S. service sector expands in September. According to a release by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) today, the non-manufacturing sector in the U.S expanded faster in September compared to August. The ISM’s purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 53.2 in September from 51.5 in August. This should augur well for Q3 GDP growth as the non-manufacturing sector has lagged the manufacturing sector in supporting recovery in the U.S. However with the expansion this gap is being closed. Equally important to note is that ISM’s non-manufacturing sector employment index, which has been a drag on the overall PMI, rose above the 50 mark in September (50.2), signaling increased employment in the services sector.

In high-income Europe… The euro zone’s services PMI fell from 55.9 in August to 54.1 in September, a six month low. This slow down in services activity, a dominant part of the eurozone economy, is consistent with a slowdown in growth for the eurozone in H2 2010. However, the slowdown across individual eurozone countries will differ. The PMI shows a contraction in the services sector in Ireland and Spain whereas services output in Germany and France continued expanding, albeit at lower rates. Further, on the employment sub-index, there were improvements in the German and French labor markets, whereas job losses were recorded in Italy, Spain and Ireland.

Among emerging markets

In Latin America and Caribbean, Chile’s index of economic activity increased 7.6% (y/y) and 2.6% (m/m) in seasonally adjusted terms for the month of August as released today by the Banco Central de Chile.

Venezuela’s consumer price index reached 1.1% (m/m) in September and 2.5% (y/y) as released today by the Central Bank.

In Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS, Poland’s Prime Minister announced today that the general government budget deficit for 2010 will fall between 7 to 8% of GDP.

Stepping It Up For Vocational Education

Last weekend, I was fortunate to be at the same dinner party as Jeff Puryear, co-director of PREAL and a luminary in the education field. We got talking about his PhD thesis from 1977, which I later found out, was perhaps the first serious study of the impact of job training in Colombia's SENA industrial training programs in Bogotá.

His study had three goals:

First, to analyze the socioeconomic characteristics of people who enrolled with SENA relative to those who did not, with a view to identifying the kind of candidates that the programs attracted; second, to estimate the impact of SENA training on the wages of a randomly-chosen individual who had undergone no training before taking part in a SENA program; and third, to calculate the private and social benefits of the SENA program.

And the Walls Came Tumbling Down

November 9th is an ambiguous day for Germany. On November 9, 1938, the Nazis killed 400 Jews, arrested about 30,000 more, destroyed over 800 synagogues and thousands of homes and businesses in the Kristallnacht, a pogrom against German and Austrian Jews.

About half a century later, on November 9, 1989, Germans in East and West Berlin stormed the Berlin Wall, the symbol of the Cold War, and brought down the Iron Curtain, literally with their own hands. I lived in East Germany when people started going out into the streets, chanting "We are the people" and demanding more freedom from the communist government. In September 1989 the first so called Monday Demonstration brought people out onto the street in Leipzig, first to pray for peace, then to demand freedom. I remember the exhilarating feeling when those demonstrations spread through other cities and drew more and more people until hundreds of thousands of East Germans protested - peacefully, without violence - for their rights.

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