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Russian Federation

Russia’s growth prospects: what about aging?

Kaspar Richter's picture

Spare a thought for the economist.

While in the past, people might have resorted to reading tea leaves to figure out what their future has in store for them, these days, at least on economic matters, people turn to the next available economist. But while economists are great at analyzing the past, predicting the future is still a complicated task.

In order to come up with projections, economists look at data. Now, it turns out that economists are often making long-term assessments based on the latest news. Take a look at these growth projections for ten years ahead for Russia, based on polls of economists conducted by Consensus Economics, along with actual growth in the year of the projections (Figure 1).  Clearly, while long-term projections are less volatile, the two are correlated – the better the present the better the future, and vice versa. In particular, long-term projections have noticeably nudged down since the crisis.

Figure 1: Actual Growth and 10-Years Ahead Growth

Projections for Russia (percent), 2004 to 2012

Thriving Cities Will Drive Eurasia's Growth

Souleymane Coulibaly's picture

Cities have always been the driving forces of world civilizations. What Niniveh was to the Assyrian civilization, Babylon was to the Babylonian civilization.  When Peter the Great, third in the Romanov Dynasty, became Russia’s ruler in 1696, Moscow’s influence began to expand. Peter strengthened the rule of the tsar and westernized Russia, at the same time, making it a European powerhouse and greatly expanding its borders. By 1918, the Russian empire spanned a vast territory from Western Europe to China.

As Peter the Great and his successors strove to consolidate their reign over this empire, major social, economic, cultural, and political changes were happening in the urban centers. Moscow led these changes, followed by St. Petersburg, which was built as a gateway to filter and channel western civilization through the empire. By fostering diversification through connectivity, specialization, and scale economies, these cities started the structural transformation of the Russian empire away from depending on commodities and limited markets in a way that more effectively served local demand.

The Soviet era altered this dynamic.

Will the Real Small Business Please Stand Up?

Munawer Sultan Khwaja's picture

Browsing through a large departmental store in Yerevan, I selected a tie, pair of trousers and a shirt to make up for having arrived in the city before my suitcases did. The store manager pointed me to three different cash counters for the three items I had purchased.  “But isn’t this all one store,” I asked in my inadequate Russian, that never fails to amuse native speakers. “Perhaps,” she smiled. “But never mind; these are different otdels (units).”

While governments around the world try to use simplified regimes to decrease the compliance burden of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), it also opens the door wide open for larger businesses to abuse these regimes either by hiding as a small business, or splitting a larger business into smaller units. This is particularly true when there are few checks on firms entering the simplified regime. Think aforementioned department store!

Women in the Workforce – a Growing Need in Emerging Europe and Central Asia

Sarosh Sattar's picture

Emerging Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is an interesting region because what you expect is not always what exists. Since this is written in honor of International Women's Day, discussing women’s labor market participation seems appropriate. The standard indicator used for this is the “female labor force participation” (LFP) rate, which is the proportion of all women between 15-64 years who either work or are looking for work. 

Since much of the region has a common socialist legacy, you would expect to see similar labor market behavior among women. However, the proportion of women who work ranges from a low of 42 percent in Bosnia and Herzegovina to 74 percent of adult women in Kazakhstan. And it wasn’t 20 years of social and economic transition that led to this divergence. Even in 1990, the range was about the same. The exception was Moldova which saw a 26 percentage point decline.

Shared Prosperity: What it Means in Russia

Jim Yong Kim's picture

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During my trip to Russia — I'm here to talk to government officials, civil society leaders, students, and attend the Group of 20 meetings — one of the major themes has been how an upper middle income country can boost shared prosperity among its citizens. How can Russia make sure that its growth includes women, young people and others, and how can it benefit future generations? Watch the video for more.

Russia's Economy - a Reality Check

Kaspar Richter's picture

Every six months, my colleagues and I get together with other members of the Russian economic report (RER) team, to figure out where the Russian economy is heading.

To do this, we rely heavily on macroeconomic data from the national statistical office, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and other sources. While this sounds straightforward enough (given it’s what economists around the world do when they compile their latest economic assessments) – it’s a rather indirect way to assess the issue.

Prospects Weekly: Flows into the bond and equity funds of developing countries rallied in the second half of this year

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture
Flows into the bond and equity funds of developing countries rallied in the second half of this year amid stabilization of financial markets and quantitative easing in high income countries.

The World Bank will help open government data in Ulyanovsk Oblast (Russia)

ICT Team's picture

Open Government is increasingly perceived as a new paradigm for ICT-enabled government transformation offering a number of instruments for improved governance, transparency and innovation. Ulyanovsk Oblast of Russia has already made substantial progress in e-government, IT industry development and IT literacy, and has taken practical steps that have made it an early leader in Open Government initiatives in Russia, as recognized in a study published in May 2012 by the Russian Institute of the Information Society.

Prospects Daily: Japan’s GDP contracts at annualized 3.5% (q/q) in third quarter

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Global stock markets fluctuated between gains and losses, following three consecutive days of losses last week, as strong Chinese exports data in October offset worries over a prospect of the so-called U.S. fiscal cliff and Greek woes. The benchmark MSCI global equity index just slipped 0.04% in afternoon trading.


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