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Partnership in Political Risk: Singapore Goes Global!

Paul Barbour's picture

On February 22, MIGA partnered with the Singapore Management University (SMU) and International Enterprise Singapore (IE Singapore), to launch the most recent World Investment and Political Risk Report in Asia. The event, at SMU’s downtown campus, focused on the key issues of sovereign and political risk and how foreign investors can mitigate them.

The latest World Investment and Political Risk report is the fourth in a series that we’ve recently launched in London and Washington, DC as well. There are some important nuggets on FDI trends and perceptions this year. The report notes that foreign investors, attracted by stronger economic growth in developing countries while mindful of risks, still remain optimistic about these destinations.

The East Asian Miracle 2.0

Otaviano Canuto's picture

imageAlmost 20 years ago, the World Bank released a groundbreaking report – The East Asian Miracle – that called worldwide attention to the economic success of eight economies in the region, leading to a discussion on the extent to which policies followed by them could be replicated.

Prospects Daily: US treasuries gained and the benchmark 10-year bond yield edged down

Financial Markets…US treasuries gained and the benchmark 10-year bond yield edged down 1 basis point to 1.66%, after rising as high as 1.7% earlier, while the 30-year bond yield slid by 2 bps to 2.83% in early Friday session after a government report on wholesale price in September showed domestic inflation remained muted.

The euro advanced 0.3% to $1.297 after dropping to a 10-day low of $1.283 yesterday, and it gained 0.4% to 101.7 yen amid speculation that a downgrade of Spain’s sovereign rating would put pressure on the government to finally request a sovereign bailout.

Spanish government bonds rose and 10-year Spanish bond yields fell 9 basis points to 5.67%, gearing for the lowest level in nearly a month, on the prospect of European Central Bank intervention to support its debt.

High-income Economies…Euro Area industrial production rose 0.6% (m/m) in August, the same pace as that recorded in July, with increases in France (+1.5% m/m), Italy (+1.7%), Spain (+1.3%), and Greece (+2.5%) offsetting a 0.4% fall in Germany, Eurozone’s largest economy. Despite the monthly increase, Euro Area industrial output was 2.9% lower in August compared to the same month in 2011.

 The US Thomson Reuters-University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 83.1 in October, the highest in five years, from 78.3 in September as consumers’ optimism about the overall economy improved.

US producer prices rose 1.1% (m/m) in September following a 1.7% rise in August, mainly due to an increase in gasoline prices. On a year-on-year basis, however, overall PPI inflation edged up to 2.1% from 2.0% in August. Core PPI which excludes food and energy remained flat compared to the previous month.

France’s current account deficit widened to 4bn euros in August from 2.6bn euros in July, as the trade deficit rose with an increase in energy-led imports offsetting an improved exports performance.

The Netherlands’ trade surplus narrowed to 2.2bn euros in August from 2.95bn euros in July, as imports rose +2.2% (m/m) from robust domestic demand, while exports fell 0.5%.

Singapore's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% (y/y) in the third quarter from 2.3% recorded in the second quarter, pulled down by a 1.5% (q/q) contraction driven by a decline in the manufacturing sector’s electronics cluster due to weak external demand.

Slovakia’s consumer price inflation eased to 3.6% (y/y) in September from 3.7% in August led by a slower pace of increase in utility prices.

Developing Economies…Bulgaria's consumer price inflation accelerated to 4.9% (y/y) in September from 3.9% in August, partly due to a sharp increase in food and fuel prices. Prices continue to advance rapidly in the second half of 2012 following an earlier period of decline.

India’s industrial production increased 2.7% (y/y) in August following a 0.2% contraction in July, led by a 5% growth of consumer goods production. India’s consumer price inflation eased to 9.7% (y/y) in September from 10.0% in August driven by a small decline in food inflation.

Malaysia's industrial production declined 0.7% (y/y) in August following a 2.9% increase in July, as manufacturing sector continued to struggle in the face of weak external demand.

Mexico’s industrial output growth slowed to 3.6% in August from 4.9% (y/y) in July, pulled down by a 0.8% (m/m) contraction in August, mirroring industrial developments in the United States.

The central banks of Indonesia, Peru and Singapore held their respective policy rates unchanged this week.

Not All That Glitters Is Gold

Otaviano Canuto's picture

imageGross Domestic Product, better known as GDP, is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. That's why GDP per capita is widely used as a summary indicator of living standards in a country. No wonder we keep our eyes closely on its evolution and compare its levels among countries.
 

East Asia Pacific leads in seaport investments

Dave Lawrence's picture
Click image to view larger version.

In this digital age, it’s easy to forget that there is a staggering amount of physical goods moving across the globe. Most trade—80 percent by volume—moves through seaports. Trade in developing countries makes up a good chunk of the total, and is growing fast. Handshake, IFC’s quarterly journal on public-private partnerships (PPPs), reports trade in developing countries is growing at nearly 14 percent.

And a lot of this trade is happening in Asia. In its June 21, 2012 issue, the Economist reports that the center of gravity of cargo trade is shifting from Europe to Asia. So it should come as no surprise that Asia is leading investment in seaports. Handshake reports that from 2000-2011, the East Asia Pacific region accounted for nearly $14 billion—32 percent—of private investment in seaports, mainly from China. The Philippines and Singapore are also major Asian investors in seaport projects.

Much of this investment comes through PPPs. Does this really make a difference? I’d say it does. Private sector financing and expertise make seaports and shipping more efficient. This in turn benefits emerging markets, which are becoming more and more engaged in global trade.

Could seaport investments be a predictor of future trends in trade? If so, Asia will become even more of a trade hotspot than it is today.

For further information, read Issue #6 of Handshake: Air & Sea PPPs.

Democratizing Development -- Really?

Maya Brahmam's picture

This weekend I drove by a Popularise sign and wondered what it meant. I learned later that a local commercial real-estate investor, Dan Miller of WestMill Capital, has been using Popularise to encourage communities to share their ideas about possible development ideas. This is a great way for “grassroots” brainstorming on commercial development.

In an article in The Washington Post about this phenomenon, Dan Miller states, “Most people…don’t get a say in how their neighborhoods take shape. Popularise is one solution to … a "broken community engagement" process…In [Advisory Neighborhood Commission] meetings, you have a vocal minority that dominates…You can have a much broader discussion with thousands of people and have it be dynamic. Popularise is the 21st-century version of a community meeting.”

What's Singapore got to do with it?

A daunting development challenge will confront us for the next decade: More than 1 million jobs per month – every month, for a decade or more – will need to be created to raise the living standards of the 2.6 billion who live on less than $2 per day, and the billions who will soon try to enter the paid workforce amid one of the greatest demographic surges in human history.  Job creation in the public sector is expected to be flat, at best, so most of the needed jobs will have to be created by the private sector. But how?

Singapore is one of the world's freest economies. (Photocredit: Flickr, jjcb)Focusing on the macroeconomic agenda is necessary but insufficient.  Most countries have rolled out macro-level reforms, but policymakers increasingly argue that the macro policy agenda must be complemented by targeted growth programs focusing on specific industries and value chains.  Policymakers urgently seek practical solutions to meet the job-creation challenge. 

MIGA: Beyond "Project of the Year"

Kevin Lu's picture

Today in Singapore, MIGA and IE Singapore co-hosted a seminar:"Managing Global Political Risks: Old Risks, New Moment."

After the welcome speech by IE's Assistant CEO Terence Seow, Michel Wormser, MIGA's Vice President and COO, delivered the keynote speech, which touched upon the current global economic turbulence, potential investment opportunities for Asian investors, the perception of risks, and what role the World Bank Group can play in facilitating private capital into productive projects. Michel noted that—while he understands that many Asian companies tend to invest in nearby countries—there are also plentiful of opportunities in Africa and Latin America.

How do they do it? Public-private partnerships and universal healthcare

David Lawrence's picture

I pay through the nose for health insurance for my family, and I’m not happy about it. As a U.S. citizen, I don’t have the luxury of government-backed healthcare. Since I’m technically self-employed, I have to pay the full premium myself. Want some figures? It costs me $830 a month for a family of four, with a high deductible. Besides being expensive, it takes a huge effort to deal with insurance issues, and I find that my provider is expert at finding reasons not to reimburse me for medical expenses. This is chewing a gaping hole in my budget. The only way I’ll ever get value for my money is if I’m hit by a bus.

Working Together, Governments and Unions of Top-Performing Countries Show that it is Possible to Improve the Teaching Profession

Emiliana Vegas's picture

Last week, I traveled to New York City to attend the first International Summit on the Teaching Profession hosted by the US Department of Education, the OECD, and Education International, a global teachers union.  Of the 16 countries represented, all were top-performers in the international PISA tests, or rapid improvers, such as Poland and Brazil.  U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan called the meeting to learn from what other countries are doing to improve teaching and learning, a sign that not only is this task complex and challenging, but that it is critical to countries at all levels of development.

So how do these top-performers and rapid-improvers manage their teaching forces to achieve high learning outcomes? The goal of the Summit was to have frank and open discussions about what works. Each country’s delegation included both government and teacher representatives, thus recognizing from the start the need for collaboration in the design and implementation of teacher policy reforms.

Should cities wait for a global climate deal?

John Roome's picture

We all know that the quality of the air we breathe has an immense impact on the health of the people and the economies of developing countries. Poor air quality can also threaten the economic competiveness of cities. Increasingly global companies consciously chose to locate in livable cities. We’re already seeing that in Asia.  A 2006 survey by the Hong Kong’s Chambers of Commerce showed that worsening air quality was beginning to affect investment decisions of corporations.

 

I spent two days last week at the Suntec Center in Singapore attending the Better Air Quality conference. This year’s theme was Air Quality in a Changing Climate. The link between the two – improved air quality and reducing climate change is sometimes not so apparent and I am glad the conference was making the link clearer. Climate change impacts all countries but the World Development Report 2010 estimates that some 75-80 percent of the damages caused by a changing climate will be borne by developing countries. If we are to limit global warming to about 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, we will all need to invest massively in energy efficiency, renewable energy sources, and more efficient transportation.

 

Combating air pollution is one area where it is possible to capture important co-benefits with respect to climate change. By taking specific measures, we can simultaneously achieve local health and welfare benefits (including related to air quality) while also reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While it is important to strive for a global deal on climate change, there are a number of things that cities can do in the interim to simultaneously reduce local environmental impacts and reduce carbon emissions. And by demonstrating on the ground some things that can work in this regard, cities can position themselves to access any global carbon financing that might become available as part of a global deal.

The Singaporean Economy: Lessons for Post War Sri Lanka

Chathurika Hettiarachichi's picture

“There was no secret, we had no choice but to take chance and sail into rough waters”- Lee Kuan Yew

Singapore is an inspiration to Sri Lanka and other developing countries in terms of economic development, political stability, and good governance. Since 1967, it has increased its per-capita purchasing power (PPP) 10-fold to $44,600 in 2007, surpassing countries such as Switzerland’s PPP ($37,300) in 2007. Singapore also has high demographic development compared to Sri Lanka even though both countries were about even in 1960s. The President, Lee Kuan Yew, navigated the Singaporean economy after gaining independence in 1965. With a population of over 5 million, Singapore maintains a market driven guided economy with diversity in cabinet and government.

What was their secret to success?

At independence in 1965, the economy was met with unemployment problems, an unskilled workforce, few entrepreneurs, no domestic savings, wretched housing conditions, militant labour unions and racial riots. They devised a strategic economic plan; developing entrepot (commercial) trading, export driven manufacturing, and then creating a service based knowledge economy.

Looking at the future: Will mobile social media fuel improved governance in developing countries?

Tanya Gupta's picture

A free and independent media plays an important role in monitoring public servants and holding them accountable for their actions.  In this way they promote transparency and accountability within a country.  The role of media in good governance is widely acknowledged.  The Worldwide Govern


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