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Europe and Central Asia

How Well did We Forecast 2014?

Shanta Devarajan's picture

A year ago, we polled Future Development bloggers for predictions on the coming year (2014).  Looking back, we find that many unforeseen (and possibly unforeseeable) events had major economic impact. 

We missed the developments in Ukraine and Russia, the spread of the Islamic State in Iraq, the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, the collapse in oil prices and their attendant effects on economic growth.  At the same time, we picked the winner of the soccer World Cup, and got many of the technology trends right. Perhaps economists are better at predicting non-economic events.

Here’s the scorecard on the seven predictions made:
 

Poland’s Junk Contracts - Or A Tale of Labor Market Duality

Roberta V. Gatti's picture
Warsaw, PolandThe journalist who came up with the name junk contracts for the Civil Law Contracts (CLCs) that now regulate the employment of anywhere between 1 and 1.4 million workers in Poland must have known a thing or two about capturing national sentiment. In a country which skillfully skirted the great recession and continues to display stable growth, the gap between employment conditions of those who work under CLCs and the rest of the labor force is a lightning rod for debate.

All About My Age

Wolfgang Fengler's picture

And Why I’m Much Older than I Thought I was
 
When my kids became teenagers I began to feel old: I saw myself as fit, healthy and (relatively) young but they, clearly, didn’t and it began to be un-cool to be around them. I’m now in my 40s in a world that is growing older and older (the global life expectancy is now at 72) … so what’s the big deal?

I may be young in absolute terms but definitely not in relative ones! If you’re my age – 43 years – there are 5.1 billion (in a world of almost 7.3 billion) youngsters for whom that’s old. Seen otherwise, you are part of the world's 30 percent oldest people! It was a long time ago that I was in the middle of the global age distribution: today the “median human” is only 29 years old.

Why Skills Matter in the Kyrgyz Republic

Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad's picture
During my visits to the Kyrgyz Republic I am always surprised to talk with people who fondly reminisce about the economy during Soviet times.  Taxi drivers nostalgically describe traffic coming to a stop as factories changed shifts.  I guess I should be less surprised, given that, prior to 1991, the Kyrgyz Republic produced almost exclusively for the Soviet Union.

With the fall of the Soviet Union, much of Russia’s demand disappeared and many firms in the country closed during the 1990s. Although the industrial sector has begun a revival over the last few years - with garment shops and private enterprises expanding - the service sector now dominates in the country - accounting for approximately 54% of GDP and 64% of jobs.

Following two rounds of low PISA test results, the government became concerned about skills more broadly and how those skills might affect employment outcomes.

But, little was known about skills in the country!

New surveys reveal dynamism, challenges of open data-driven businesses in developing countries

Alla Morrison's picture

Open data for economic growth continues to create buzz in all circles.  We wrote about it ourselves on this blog site earlier in the year.  You can barely utter the phrase without somebody mentioning the McKinsey report and the $3 trillion open data market.  The Economist gave the subject credibility with its talk about a 'new goldmine.' Omidyar published a report a few months ago that made $13 trillion the new $3 trillion.  The wonderful folks at New York University's GovLab launched the OpenData500 to much fanfare.  The World Bank Group got into the act with this study.  The Shakespeare report was among the first to bring attention to open data's many possibilities. Furthermore, governments worldwide now routinely seem to insert economic growth in their policy recommendations about open data – and the list is long and growing.

Map

Geographic distribution of companies we surveyed. Here is the complete list.
 
We hope to publish a detailed report shortly but here meanwhile are a few of the regional findings in greater detail.

Can Pay for Performance Provide the Wrong Incentives?

Tito Cordella's picture

Office workers in a meeting The use of technology to improve productivity continues to evolve. In Modern Times, Tramp had to keep up with the crazy pace of the assembly line; in contemporary public administrations, employees have to comply with what is mandated by monitoring and reporting technologies; in today’s World Bank — I’m exaggerating a bit — we are asked to record everything we do in the multiple Bank systems. A legitimate question to ask is whether the reliance on monitoring and reporting technologies improves service delivery or, instead, whether it forces motivated civil servants or employees to waste time “feeding the beast”.

New surveys reveal dynamism, challenges of open data-driven businesses in developing countries

Alla Morrison's picture

Open data for economic growth continues to create buzz in all circles.  We wrote about it ourselves on this blog site earlier in the year.  You can barely utter the phrase without somebody mentioning the McKinsey report and the $3 trillion open data market.  The Economist gave the subject credibility with its talk about a 'new goldmine.' Omidyar published a report a few months ago that made $13 trillion the new $3 trillion.  The wonderful folks at New York University's GovLab launched the OpenData500 to much fanfare.  The World Bank Group got into the act with this study.  The Shakespeare report was among the first to bring attention to open data's many possibilities. Furthermore, governments worldwide now routinely seem to insert economic growth in their policy recommendations about open data – and the list is long and growing.

Map

Geographic distribution of companies we surveyed. Here is the complete list.
 
We hope to publish a detailed report shortly but here meanwhile are a few of the regional findings in greater detail.

The Impact of Falling Oil Prices

Birgit Hansl's picture

 Notes from Russia and Kazakhstan

Petrol tanker driving along the rural road in Russia Oil prices tumbled dramatically since July when they reached US$115 per barrel to below US$65 per barrel in recent days. Despite the sharp price decline, OPEC signaled no intention to cut production.  The oil market remains well-supplied and there is demand-driven pressure on oil prices, following weak economic data from the Euro zone and a number of emerging economies, including Turkey, Brazil, Russia, and China which means that the oil price could fall even further and remain low for longer.

The economic prospects of many resource abundant economies are tied to oil prices. Russia and Kazakhstan are two extreme cases. Such dependency translates into volatility of export receipts and government revenues and, depending on the exchange regime, to a decline in the national currency. For Russia, oil and gas provide about 70 percent of its exports and 50 percent of its federal budget. In Kazakhstan, oil revenues constitute about half of government’s total revenues and 45 percent of foreign exchange earnings.

Trade in Fishing Services—Good or Bad? Separating Myth from Fact

Tim Bostock's picture
Small-scale fishers in West Africa. Courtesy MRAG, Ltd.A colleague recently quizzed me on the extent to which our latest report—Trade in Fishing Services: Emerging Perspectives on Foreign Access Agreements—specifically addresses the World Bank’s goals of reducing poverty and sharing prosperity in developing countries. My brief answer was “comprehensively!”. Helping the poor and protecting the environment may not be the first things that pop into your mind when you think about foreign fishing access arrangements. However, when considered as international trade in fishing services, these arrangements do have the potential to deliver real benefits to the poorest people in developing countries. How? Well, let’s immediately dive deeper into the report…
 
Foreign access rarely receives good press. Although over half of the world’s exclusive economic zones are subject to some form of foreign fishing arrangement, there is a perception that industrialized nations are "giving with one hand while taking away with the other." Criticism abounds regarding the role that foreign fleets play in overexploiting coastal state fish stocks, in engaging in illegal and unreported activity, in contributing to conflicts with small-scale fisheries and in generally undermining domestic fishing interests in vulnerable developing economies.

Lessons from Reducing Energy Subsidies

Mamta Murthi's picture

A view from Central Europe and the Baltics

Energy subsidies are common throughout the world.  The bulk of subsidies are paid in the Middle East and North Africa where my colleague, Shanta Devarajan, has eloquently blogged about their corrosive impact on economic growth, on employment, on human health and on water conservation.  Where I sit, in Central Europe, many countries are in the process of liberalizing their market for energy and bringing subsidies to an end.  What lessons does the experience of energy price liberation in this group of countries offer to their neighbors in the south?  Based on the work of my colleagues, Nistha Sinha and Caterina Ruggieri, I would draw five lessons.


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