How relevant is ICT for transport? The emergence of low-cost open-source mapping tools; widespread cellular network coverage in developing countries; declining costs of mobile phone hardware; and increasing Internet use by public agencies have resulted in unprecedented opportunities to support transport planning and management in developing countries.
Last month, while World Bank President Jim Yong Kim launched the gender data portal, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remarked that “data not only measures progress, it inspires it”. Indeed when data is both relevant and effectively communicated, it can help to inform policies, identify challenges, and catalyze changes and innovations that deliver development results.
With that goal in mind, we started an Open Data Lab. One of our objectives is to help the development community become more effective data communicators by experimenting with different data visualization techniques and tools. The human brain finds it easier to process data and information if it is presented as an image rather than raw numbers or words. And visualizations that let and encourage users to interact with data can deepen their understanding of the information presented.
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Spending a day at a kindergarten can be eye-opening for an adult. I’ll tell you why.
The school in question is what we, in the Russian Federation, call an inclusive school – where children with special needs are part of a regular kindergarten and participate in the same activities and programs as others. It works! This school was started in 2011 and does not distinguish between children with special needs and others. Both groups are part of the same class, sit at the same table, and participate in the same activities. Not many places in the world do this.
The inclusive model, while not unique, is still rare. But other than that distinctive nature, what’s so special about it?
| Renewed concerns earlier in the week about the Greek bail-out plan and the possibility of a credit rating downgrade for several European economies drove borrowing costs up. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcement on Thursday to defend the Euro has helped ease concerns somewhat. As inflationary pressures abate and the global economy slows down, more developing countries are cutting interest rates, however, where inflationary pressures remain high, policy tightening continues. Notwithstanding the pick-up in tourism arrivals in the first four months of 2012, the recent slowdown in economic activity is likely to dampen tourism flows in the second half of 2012.
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| Borrowing costs for high-spread Euro Area governments rise. Renewed worries about Greece being able to reach set fiscal targets; Moody’s negative credit outlook for Germany, the Netherlands, and the European Financial Stability Mechanism; and increasing concerns related to regional finances in some countries caused bond yields to rise for Euro Area governments earlier this week. Ten-year Spanish government bond yields rose to fresh record highs at 7.621% and Italian bonds hit a 2012-high of 6.597%. Comparable yields also increased for French and even German bonds, albeit slightly. In contrast, U.S. government bonds yields touched record lows as investors sought safe haven. However, the announcement on Thursday by the ECB that it would defend the Euro has helped to push Spanish and Italian bond yields further down from earlier highs.
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| Interest rate cuts in developing countries continue. As inflationary pressures abate and the global economy slows down, interest rate cuts among developing countries have continued, unlike in large high-income countries where the policy space for interest rate cuts remains limited. In recent months some of the larger developing countries (Brazil, China, the Philippines, South Africa and Vietnam) have cut nominal policy rates, although real interest rates may be higher due to sharper declines in inflation. In contrast, policy tightening has occurred in developing countries where domestic factors (rapid credit growth, poor harvests, currency depreciation) are putting pressure on prices: Peru and Uruguay increased reserve ratios and Malawi increased its policy rate. Nonetheless, most developing countries continue to keep their interest rates on hold at relatively low levels, in a bid to balance the need to keep a lid on inflation and stimulate domestic demand.
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| The pick up in global tourist arrivals observed so far in 2012, is likely to slowdown in latter half of the year. The tourism sector remains an important source of revenue and job creation for several developing countries (accounting for up to 32% of GDP in Maldives, see chart). Data released by the United Nations World Tourism Organization shows international tourist arrivals increased by 5% in the first four months of 2012 (compared to 4.5% for same period in 2011). Among developing regions, the increase was strongest in the Middle East and North Africa, bouyed on by a strong rebound in Tunisia (48%, y/y) and Egypt (29%, y/y) – thanks to the ongoing stabilisation of the situation there. However, with the global economy slowing down, and consumer confidence weakening in major tourist-origin countries, the pace of increase in tourist flows is likely to slow down in the second half of 2012.
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Download the Prospects Weekly as PDF here.
Open Government is making real inroads in Russia today. That was the message delivered at a recent workshop organized in Moscow by the World Bank and the Open Development Technology Alliance.
| Adverse weather conditions are pushing some food commodity prices to levels not seen since the 2007/08 price spike. Nonetheless, weakening global demand has pushed down headline inflation in most regions. Notwithstanding perturbations in the global economy, remittance flows to developing countries remain resilient and are forecast to rise by 7.2% in 2012. | |
| Adverse weather conditions are leading to a surge in food commodity prices. Excessive heat in the US Midwest, drought in Central Asia, rains in Europe, and poor monsoon conditions in India are pushing some food commodity prices to levels not seen since the 2007/08 price spike. Futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange continued the rally that began in mid-June, with maize and wheat prices gaining 50% and 45%, respectively within a month. Maize and soybean prices have surpassed their 2007/08 peaks. On the positive side, the rice market remains well supplied, albeit at high prices. Separately, metals and some agricultural raw material prices continued to slide for a fourth consecutive month on concerns about global demand. Aluminum, copper, and lead prices declined 5.9%, 6.7%, and 7.9%, respectively in June—the metal price index is down 11% in the past three months and has lost one-quarter from its early 2011 peak.
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| Disinflationary trends prevail globally, although local factors are driving-up inflation in some regions. The weakening of global demand in recent months has dampened industrial commodity prices, including oil prices, thereby contributing to disinflationary pressures across regions. Headline inflation rates have fallen to 1.8% on aggregate among high-income countries in June from 2.5% at the beginning of the year, and in developing countries it has fallen to 5.7% from 6.6% in January. Nonetheless, significant differences remain among regions. While headline inflation trends in East Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe are consistent with global trends, idiosyncratic factors such as poor precipitation in India, and delayed harvest and droughts in Central Asia, and political unrest-related supply shortages in some Arab Spring countries have increased domestic food prices, thereby leading to an inching up of inflation.
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| Remittances forecast to rise in 2012 despite volatility in the global economy. Remittance flows to developing countries—an important source of income and external financing—are forecast to reach $399bn in 2012, up from $372bn in 2011. Notwithstanding perturbations in the global economy, remittance flows have remained resilient and are less volatile compared to capital flows. A recent World Bank study Migration and Remittances During the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond attributes the resilience of remittance flows to, inter alia, the persistence of migrant stocks in receiving countries and their willingness to absorb income shocks in order to continue remitting. The more diversified the destination of migrants and the lower the barriers to labor mobility in the destination countries, the more resilient and larger remittances to the country of origin were.
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Download the Prospects Weekly as PDF here.
Important developments today:
1. European shares and euro continue to slump as Moody’s cuts the rating outlook for Germany, the Netherland, and Luxembourg
2. Output in the Euro Area contracts for the sixth month in July
Important developments today:
1. Crude oil prices fall from 9-week high
2. German producer price inflation falls to lowest in two years
The Republic of Moldova is one of the first countries in the region and among the top 16 countries in the world to launch an open data platform. The initiatives of the Republic of Moldova to open its government and public data by capitalizing on Informational Technologies will lead to the improvement of public services, an increase in transparency and the promotion of innovation.
Renewed Euro Area tensions cut into capital flows to developing countries in May and June, and prompted a sharp downturn in business sentiment worldwide. Together these developments point to slower growth in 2012Q2 and Q3, unless recent improvements in financial markets and policy steps cause business sentiment to strengthen. Falling industrial commodity prices, notably oil prices, may mitigate impacts for importing countries, but will exacerbate strains on government revenues in commodity exporting nations. | |
| Capital flows to developing countries picked up slightly in June after falling sharply in May due to renewed Euro Area tensions. The resurgence of Euro Area turmoil in May caused gross capital flows to developing countries to fall by a revised 45% in May (solid line in figure). The bulk of the decline was in bond and equity issuance, as borrowers may have voluntarily delayed going to market given heightened uncertainty. In June, total gross capital inflows picked up somewhat. Perhaps surprisingly, in the most recent period syndicated bank lending has held up (despite European banking-sector deleveraging). Overall, inflows in May-June are down 36% from the levels observed in the first four months of the year. Should capital flows remain depressed they could contribute to weaker investment and growth in developing countries in the second half of the year.
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| The financial turmoil in the Euro Area has cut into business sentiment worldwide. Purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) published by national sources and Markit deteriorated further in June. The global indicator descended into sub-50 territory, suggesting that global output shrank in June, with all economic regions weakening (except China whose official PMI improved slightly). A similar decline in PMIs occurred in the second half of 2011, when Euro Area tensions rose in July of that year. Perhaps, reflecting lessons learned from that earlier episode, the deterioration has been quicker and more marked this time around. The decline in sentiment is consistent with a scenario where firms and consumers are holding back on expenditures because of increased uncertainty. Economic outturns for the second and third quarters of 2012 will depend critically on whether confidence remains weak or begins to strengthen in response to recent policy steps.
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| Euro Area tensions and global growth concerns have accentuated downward pressure on industrial commodity prices, notably oil prices. International prices of crude oil and other industrial commodities have been on a downward trend in recent months, reflecting strong supply growth and weak demand. The initial easing in prices occurred even as global economic activity was firming, but has accentuated with financial market tensions and expectations of weaker growth. As of July 3rd, international crude oil prices were $25 lower than their first quarter highs, and copper and aluminum prices were down 10 percent and 16 percent respectively. Internationally traded wheat prices have strengthened in recent weeks amid concerns that high temperatures may reduce global supplies, especially from key exporters including the United States and Russia. Compared with a year ago, wheat prices are up 15 percent and maize prices are up 14 percent. While lower oil prices will help to cushion the real-income effects of weaker GDP growth in most developing countries – lower oil and metal prices can be expected to cut into incomes and government revenues in exporting countries, exacerbating the downturn in those economies.
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Download the Prospects Weekly as PDF here.
Important developments today:
1. Global equities move higher amid the latest EU agreement
2. May industrial production output mixed among major European economies.
In the recently released Global Economic Prospects June 2012, World Bank experts warned of long period of volatility. Resurgence of the Euro Area tensions had eroded economic gains of first 4 months of 2012, said the report. And as the leaders of the 27 European Nations convened in Brussels yesterday to tackle the crisis, it was labeled as the “last chance” summit. The outcome: Up All Night, But Consensus Finally Reached, says a Time.com story. According to the story, published today, “Yet, despite what were described as tense and grinding negotiations, decisions announced early Friday morning appear to represent important steps towards the survival of the embattled euro zone—and in both the short- and long-term context of the crisis.” This much needed move comes at a crucial point and will hopefully have a positive impact on developing countries. However, a lot remains to be done. Following is a sampling of some interesting research and analysis by World Bank as well as others highlighting issues of current import to global economy and development.
Nous nous sommes rendus à Rio+20, la Conférence des Nations Unies sur le développement durable, avec la ferme intention d’en repartir munis d’un plan concret, un plan également adressé aux ministres des finances, du développement et de l’environnement qui nous indiquerait les changements à opérer « dès le lundi matin prochain » en vue d’atteindre notre objectif d’un développement durable pour tous.
Ce plan, nous l’avons.
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We came to Rio+20 determined that one outcome of the UN Conference on Sustainable Development must be a plan for what ministers of finance, development and environment and ourselves need to do differently Monday morning, June 25th – if we are to achieve sustainable development for all.
We have our plan.
We came to Rio+20 knowing that inclusive green growth is the pathway to sustainable development, and the evidence here is that this international community agrees.
The analysis behind the World Bank’s report Inclusive Green Growth: The Pathway to Sustainable Development framed many of the conference debates and helped facilitate a new focus on natural capital accounting – a fundamental component of inclusive green growth.
According to the 59 countries, 86 companies, and 17 civil society organizations that supported the World Bank Group-facilitated 50:50 campaign – as well as many others – natural capital accounting is an idea whose time has come.
In fact, natural capital accounting events filled the Rio Convention Center, and government and civil society groups alike highlighted the importance of moving beyond GDP.
This new energy and emphasis around this issue may be the most important outcome of Rio+ 20.
Gro Harlem Brundtland, former prime minister of Norway and special envoy of the UN secretary-general on climate change, speaks with Michelle Bachelet, former president of Chile and executive director of UN Women, during a press conference at the 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development. UN Photo/Maria Elisa Franco
Twenty years ago, evenings in the Planeta Femea - the women’s tent in the alternative forum, the Global Forum - changed my life. I started connecting health, rights, environment, and development through the vision of the women there. Now, 20 years later, a new generation of young women is angry and frustrated that their rights and their health always seem to get traded away at the last moment.
Absent here in Rio are some of the pioneers on whose shoulders we stand - Wangari Maathai and Bella Abzug to name just two. We should remember that in the run-up to Rio the first time around, delegates and officialdom thought them troublesome - they “needed to be managed.” Wangari, of course, faced much worse before she was embraced as a radical reformer for peace and sustainable development and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
In Rio this time around, gender equality is understood as smart economics, and judging by the energy and programming in the private sector summits, smart business, too. This is a real advance in implementing Agenda 21.
