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Latin America & Caribbean

Three Perspectives on Brazilian Growth Pessimism

Otaviano Canuto's picture
It has become increasingly evident over the last two years that the growth engine of the Brazilian economy has run out of steam. Despite relative resilience during the global financial crisis and following a quick recovery, economic growth registered just 1 percent in 2012 and a meager 2.5 percent in 2013. More recently, the economy grew at the annual equivalent of only 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2014. Little improvement is expected in the near term. To the contrary, as of early June, the median forecaster expects growth of 1.4 for 2014 and 1.8 percent for 2015. Further out the horizon, a muted recovery is anticipated that would bring growth to 2.5-3 percent between 2016 and 2018.

Eliminating Customs of Corruption: New Approaches in Cameroon & Afghanistan

Gerard McLinden's picture

Corruption continues to plague customs administrations around the world regardless of their level of development and despite intense public attention.

Recent high profile cases in many first world countries reinforce what we always knew—that no country is immune, and that there are no quick fix solutions available. The very nature of customs work makes it vulnerable to many forms of corruption, from the payment of informal facilitation fees to large scale fraud and other serious criminal activities.

But this blanket generalization belies some genuine progress in countries where reforms are making a measurable impact on operational effectiveness and integrity. 
 

What Does Piketty’s Capital Mean for Developing Countries?

Gabriel Demombynes's picture

The economics book that has launched a thousand blog posts, Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Country, tells a grand story of inequality past and present. One would expect that a book on global inequality would have much to say about development. However, the book has limited relevance for the developing world, and the empirical data he marshals for developing countries is weak.

Piketty’s central story is that convergence in the developed world and slower population growth will leave us with a permanently modest economic growth rate (g). Coupled with a constant return to wealth (r), concentration of capital ownership, and high rates of savings among the wealthy, the low g leads to rising wealth inequality over a longish run—something like the second half of the 20th century.

A low-g future for the developed world is a mostly uncontroversial assumption. (He assumes future GDP per capita growth of 1.2 percent for the U.S.) But Piketty draws conclusions for the world as a whole, and we are a long way from global convergence. As Branko Milanovic noted in his review, catch-up growth could fend off Piketty’s inequality dystopia for some time.
 

Transit-oriented development — What does it take to get it right?

Chyi-Yun Huang's picture
Follow the authors on Twitter: @chyiyunhuang and @shomik_raj
 
A recent trip to Addis Ababa really brought the imperatives of transit-oriented development as a complement to mass transit investments home to us. As a strategic response to rapid urbanization and growing motorization rates, Addis is one of several African cities currently developing public mass transit systems such as light rail and bus-rapid transit. Similar initiatives are budding in Dar es Salaam, Nairobi, and other cities in South Africa.

It is well known that transit-oriented development, or ToD, is a high-value complement to mass transit development. Compact, mixed-use, high density development around key mass transit stations can have the dual benefits of creating a ridership base that enhances the economic and financial viability of the mass transit investment and compounding the accessibility benefits a mass transit system can bring to a city’s residents. This is not to mention the intrinsic value in creating vibrant social gathering places for communities at strategic locations.

How do you create a shared vision for smart city mobility?

Victor Mulas's picture


For Concepción, Chile, a smart city began with people using Lego blocks.

Together with the World Bank, Chile's Unit of Smart Cities in its Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications has been working with Concepción to create a vision for techonology solutions that will help build the Gran Concepción of 2025. A variety of stakeholders including local and municipal government officials, academic staff, the private sector, civil society actors and citizens participated in a vision exercise during a co-creation workshop. The workshop applied design thinking and foresight analysis techniques, organized teams with different stakeholders and assigned roles to each different group.

How to Take Control of your Personal Finances

Rekha Reddy's picture


​Many of our aspirations revolve around improving our personal finances—keeping better track of spending, saving towards a goal or perhaps getting out of debt.  How can we work towards these goals and follow through on these changes? 

Toward safer roads in Brazil - A partnership between the World Bank and the State of São Paulo on Road Safety

Eric Lancelot's picture
According to WHO data, road transport kills about 1.3 million people each year, turning into the 8th leading cause of death worldwide. Although road deaths are a global epidemic, Latin America has been hit particularly hard by the road safety crisis: the region accounts for a tenth of traffic fatalities and 6 million serious injuries every year, although it is home to only 6.9% of the world’s population.

Within that regional context, Brazil, often on the frontline and seen as an example by many on the development agenda, lags behind in road safety, especially when compared to nations with similar socioeconomic characteristics. Recently, the federal and state governments have started to take concrete action in an effort to stop the carnage on their roads, and a recent seminar on road safety in Sao Paulo gives some reasons to believe that Brazil is indeed moving in the right direction.

Latin America and the Caribbean: Back to Normal?

José Juan Ruiz Gómez's picture


The ritual publication by the leading multilateral organizations, think tanks and investment banks on the macroeconomic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean which, without being too dramatic, puts an end to the era of growth rates above the region’s potential, has inevitably attracted the interest of policymakers, investors and the public in general.

How Much Cement Do I Export? And Other Weighty Questions

Amir Fouad's picture

WITS is how World Bank economists and users like you can answer tough questions on trade.For client countries of the World Bank, there is no shortage of interest in—or desire for—information on trade flows and market access. Improving trade performance is a critical component of many client countries’ development strategies, and trade data hold the key to understanding how countries are faring in the quest to eliminate trade barriers, increase competitiveness, and turn improved market access into actual trade flows.

But the trade data arena is large and complex, full of topical jargon, different nomenclatures and coding systems, availability constraints, and potentially complicated indicators. For newcomers, trade data navigation can be particularly challenging, which belies the immense value and richness in the wealth of information that has become available and accessible over the past few years.

Enter the World Integrated Trade Solution, or WITS.

The Tyranny of Aid Critics

Shanta Devarajan's picture

Charles Kindleberger (h/t Gerry Helleiner) asserted that all reviewers can be counted on to say three things about a book: “It isn’t new. It isn’t true. And I would have said it differently.”  Notwithstanding their internal contradictions, these statements summarize my thoughts on Bill Easterly’s latest book, The Tyranny of Experts.

It isn’t new. The main point of the book is that the rights of the poor have been systematically undermined, directly by governments, especially authoritarian ones; and indirectly by “experts”, who either prescribe technical solutions that ignore poor people’s ability to come up with their own solutions, or provide legitimacy to these autocratic regimes so that they continue to suppress the poor.  Bill illustrates this point with three historical examples—China between the world wars, Africa at independence, and Colombia in the 1950s—where a combination of western (in some cases, colonial) interests and local elites conspired to keep the large majority of poor people poor for a long time.  The analytical backdrop to these three case studies is the “debate”—a debate that never took place—between two Nobel-prize-winning economists: Gunnar Myrdal, who advocated government intervention to improve the lot of the poor; and Friedrich Hayek, who believed in protecting the individual rights of the poor as a means of their escaping poverty.


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