South Asia

Dhaka. Chittagong. Khulna. Just a handful of cities where construction is booming. In Bangladesh, the construction sector is driven by a single fuel: bricks. But making bricks is not neat. It is messy and backbreaking. In Bangladesh, most bricks are manually made from mud, and then burnt in kilns. Workers have to use hammers to break up tons of coal every day. Then they carry the coal on their shoulders to the ovens used to fire bricks. There are more than 4,500 traditional kilns in Bangladesh that operate this way.

The country’s capital, Dhaka, is surrounded by more than 1,200 kilns. Most kilns operate only 6 months during the year (between November and April). Because more than 90% are located in low-lying areas which experience flooding during the rainy season. During the 6 months of operation, Dhaka becomes one of the most polluted cities in the world. Every day, the chimneys blow black smoke that clouds the city’s sky. The smoke is dense and contains fine particulates, which are very damaging to health. They cause no less than 20 percent of the premature deaths related to urban air pollution in Dhaka. 

How long can the country afford to make bricks in this way? The current status is by no means sustainable. To make 100,000 bricks, one needs to burn 20 tons of coal, which has high sulfur content. China, the world’s leading brick producer, uses only 6 tons of coal to make the same amount of bricks. China’s experience suggests that adopting cleaner and more energy-efficient technologies is key to success.

Global Economic Prospects report. Though the slowdown in high-income economies will be sharper, developing countries will also be affected. Downside risks related to the loss of markets confidence in the ability of one or more high-income countries to repay their debt remains a serious concern. Since August credit default swap rates in both high-income and developing countries have increased significantly. Sub-Saharan Africa was one of the fastest growing developing regions in 2011, but remains vulnerable to outturns in the global economy.
Global GDP growth forecast is significantly downgraded in latest World Bank Global Economic Prospects report. The global economy is now expected to expand 2.5 and 3.1 percent in 2012 and 2013 versus the 3.6 percent projected in June for both years. High-income country growth is now expected to come in at 1.4 percent in 2012 and 2 percent in 2013, versus forecasts in June of 2.7 and 2.6 percent for 2012 and 2013 respectively. Growth in developing countries has been revised down to 5.4 and 6.0 percent versus 6.2 and 6.3 percent in June. While developing countries are in much better shape than high-income countries, they remain vulnerable to significant downside risks. If global conditions were to deteriorate sharply, then low- and middle-income countries, would also likely be affected. Indeed, in contrast to 2008/09, they have much less fiscal space available to respond to a new crisis
Developing country Credit Default Swaps (CDS) rates move higher since August. The resurgence of market concerns about fiscal sustainability in Europe and the exposure of banks to stressed sovereign European debt pushed CDS rates of most countries (including developing countries) upwards beginning in August 2011. By early January 2012, emerging-market bond spreads had widened by an average of 117 bps from their end-of-July levels, and developing-country stock markets had lost 8.5 percent of their value. Since October, however, the median CDS rates of developing countries with relatively good credit histories have declined to 162 points and developing country sovereign yields have eased from 672 to 616 basis points. Further, notwithstanding the recent downgrades to the credit rating of nine Eurozone countries, CDS rates in developing countries have held steady.
Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa remained robust, inching up from 4.8% in 2010 to 4.9% in 2011, remaining just shy of its pre-crisis average of 5%. Excluding South Africa, which accounts for over a third of the regions GDP, growth in the rest of Sub Saharan Africa was even stronger at 5.9% in 2011, making it one of the fastest growing developing regions. Higher investment flows, rising consumer spending, the coming on stream of new mineral exports in a number of countries, and the rebound to growth in Cote’d’Ivoire, should support Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth acceleration to 5.3% in 2012 and 5.6% in 2013. Nonetheless, risks to growth prospects remain weighted on the downside as heightened uncertainty from the Eurozone debt crisis could shave growth in Sub-Saharan Africa by up to 1.7 percentage points in 2012, as merchandise exports, tourism receipts, commodity prices, foreign direct investment, and remittances -important growth drivers - remain susceptible to the turn of events in the Eurozone.

Download the Prospects Weekly as PDF here.

Sima is a chairperson of Ghoryan Women Saffron Association. Her association was formed by the Danish Committee for Aid to Afghan Refugees (DACAAR) and received a small grant to help improve their post-harvest processing. The women purchased a saffron drier and learned post-harvest processing, including hygiene, grading, sorting, and packaging. They identified two women trainers to ensure quality control. In 2010, the association doubled saffron production, and the sales price increased by almost 110 percent. From the user fee, the women saved Af 108,700 (approximately US$ 2,100) and plan to buy another drier. “Men now make tea for their wives, when we are busy during the saffron season,” Sima says.

Here's what young people from across South Asia said more and better jobs meant to them...

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