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The Global Economic Outlook: Darkening Skies

Carlos Arteta's picture

Download the January 2019 Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth sputtered in 2018 amid weakening trade and manufacturing, tighter financing conditions, and elevated policy uncertainties. 

Growth decelerated in almost 80 percent of advanced economies and in nearly half of emerging market and developing economies in 2018. This year, it is expected to slow further in a majority of advanced economies and in about a third of emerging market and developing economies. 

In all, global growth is predicted to moderate from 3.0 in 2018 to 2.9 percent in 2019 and an average of 2.8 percent in 2020-21, below previous forecasts. 

Risks of even slower-than-expected growth have become more acute. Financial market pressures and trade tensions could escalate, denting confidence and further setting back growth prospects in emerging market and developing countries. 

Here is a look at global economic prospects in five figures:

1. Global growth is moderating as trade and manufacturing lose momentum. The deceleration in global activity was more pronounced than previously expected in 2018, as reflected in softening export orders and industrial production growth. The slowdown in global trade came against the backdrop of ongoing trade tensions involving major economies. A. Global industrial production andnew export orders

A. Global industrial production and new export orders

Innovations in satellite measurements for development

Ran Goldblatt's picture

Bottom line

Combinatorial innovation is driving innovation in satellite-based economic measurements at unprecedented resolution, frequency and scale. Increasing availability of satellite data and rapid advancements in machine learning methods are enabling a better understanding into the fundamental forces shaping economic development.

Why satellite data innovations matter

The desire of human beings to “think spatially” to understand how people and objects are organized in space has not changed much since Eratosthenes—the Greek astronomer best known as the “father of Geography”—first used the term “Geographika” around 250 BC. Centuries later, our understanding of economic geography is being propelled forward by new data and new capabilities to rapidly process, analyze and convert these vast data flows into meaningful and near real-time information.

How is the Human Capital Index prompting action?

Jason Weaver's picture
Students at the Zanaki Primary School in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. © Sarah Farhat/World Bank
Students at the Zanaki Primary School in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. © Sarah Farhat/World Bank

Whew, it’s out!

On October 11, 2018, the World Bank Group released its inaugural Human Capital Index (HCI), a tool that quantifies the contribution of health and education to the productivity of a country’s next generation of workers. The question underpinning the HCI asks, “How much human capital can a child born today expect to acquire by age 18, given the risks to poor health and poor education that prevail in the country where she lives?” Globally, 56 percent of children born today will lose more than half their potential lifetime earnings because governments and other stakeholders are not currently making effective investments to ensure a healthy, educated, and resilient population ready for the workplace of the future.

To drive urgent action on human capital development, the Bank Group’s Human Capital Project (HCP) is working on two other fronts beyond the Human Capital Index. These are Measurement & Research and Country Engagement.

Women and migration: Exploring the data

Eliana Rubiano-Matulevich's picture

International Migrants Day is a call to disseminate information on international migration and look toward further understanding its intersection with economic growth and socioeconomic wellbeing. Here we draw on data from the World Bank Gender Data Portal to highlight four big facts about women AND international migration. We focus on the “international migrant stock” which is the number of people born in a country other than that in which they live. Women, men, boys and girls experience migration differently. Accurate and timely sex-disaggregated data on international migration is critical for uncovering the specific needs and vulnerabilities of women and men and for shaping migration policy.

Globally, women are on the move: they comprise slightly less than half of all international, global migrants. In fact, the share of women among global, international migrants has only fallen slightly during the last three decades, from 49 percent in 1990 to 47 percent in 2017.

Stronger social accountability, key to closing “human capital gap”

Jeff Thindwa's picture



With the creation of the World Bank’s Human Capital project and launch of the Human Capital Index in October 2018 it is fitting for social accountability practitioners to ask how countries would be able to close the ‘human capital gap’ and to be accountable for their efforts?

World Bank engagement through the Expert Group on Refugee and IDP Statistics (EGRIS)

Emi Suzuki's picture
Better data, based on guidance from the Expert Group on Refugee and IDP Statistics, will help improve our support for the
displaced and their host communities.
Credit: Chisako Fukuda/World Bank

The record-high number of forcibly displaced people today—refugees, asylum seekers and internally displaced persons (IDPs)—has underscored the need to improve the way the global community addresses these situations. The new global compact on refugees adopted at the UN General Assembly on December 17th will guide these efforts.

It is widely acknowledged that statistics are critical to inform our response, but until recently, there were no global standards. Lacking international guidance, different institutions produced data on forced displacement without due coordination or transparency. Terminology was inconsistent, making data incomparable. Statistical capacity varies between countries, and refugees and asylum seekers were not included in national censuses or regular migration and population statistics.

Breaking down the barriers to mobilizing sustainable investment

Ceyla Pazarbasioglu's picture
Closing Plenary of the Investor Forum. © World Bank

“Private capital is often an important source of sustainable finance. Public finance alone may not be sufficient to meet the demands for sustainable finance as the global economy continues to grow and poses increasing burdens on our resources and ecosystems. Mobilizing private investment in areas such as sustainable infrastructure, sustainable technologies and business model innovations, among others, can deliver substantive environmental, social, and economic benefits.”

This summary from the G20’s Sustainable Finance Synthesis Report was at the heart of the discussion at the Investor Forum, which was held on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires in November. The event – hosted by the World Bank and the Government of Argentina – brought together investors holding over $20 trillion of assets as well as stakeholders and representatives from G20 governments. The goal was to identify steps for boosting long-term, sustainable, private-sector investments that tackle development challenges and promote economic growth in parts of the world that need it most.

Adding energy data to the World Bank’s data catalog

Tim Herzog's picture

The World Bank data catalog is an ongoing effort to provide a “one-stop shop” for all Bank data related to development. That aspiration took a big step forward this week as we completed the addition of datasets from the World Bank’s ENERGYDATA.INFO platform. ENERGYDATA.INFO continues to provide public access to hundreds of datasets from over a dozen organizations on topics such as solar and wind measurement data, electricity transmission networks and energy access. Users may now search for and download those same datasets from the Bank-wide catalog.

This integration is similar to previous efforts to provide greater data access. The World Bank’s finances platform, microdata platform, and open data catalog have all been added to the data catalog. For data users and Bank staff alike, there is a clear benefit in being able to search and access all available data from a single online location. The data catalog also provides a consistent approach to data licensing, so users can understand which datasets are open data, which are subject to third-party terms, and which may carry other restrictions.

Precious metals outlook: regaining lustre?

Wee Chian Koh's picture

This blog is the ninth in a series of ten blogs on commodity market developments, elaborating on themes discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook. Earlier blogs are here.
 
The World Bank’s Precious Metals Price Index is forecast to decline marginally in 2019, following an expected 2 percent loss in 2018. Gold prices are projected to edge marginally lower and silver prices to tick slightly higher, while platinum prices are anticipated to rebound moderately. Key risks to this outlook are U.S. monetary policy, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and global demand.
 
Precious metals price index

Shared Prosperity: A challenging but important goal to monitor

Judy Yang's picture

Shared prosperity is one of the World Bank Group’s Twin Goals, introduced in 2013. Progress toward this goal is monitored through an indicator that measures the annualized growth rate in average household per capita income or consumption among the poorest 40 percent of the population in each country (the bottom 40), where the bottom 40 are determined by their rank in household per capita income or consumption. Chapter 2 of the 2018 Poverty & Shared Prosperity Report provides an update on the recent mixed progress on shared prosperity around the world in about 2010-15.

The shared prosperity indicator was proposed as a means to shine a constant light on the poorest segments of the population in every country, irrespective of their level of development. Shared prosperity has no target or finish line, because the aim is to continuously improve well-being. In good times and in bad, in low and high-income economies alike, the bottom 40 percent of the population in each nation would be monitored. Tracking the bottom 40’s absolute growth as well as their growth relative to the mean is a way to remind us to always consider distributional impacts and strive for equitable outcomes.

An important but challenging goal to monitor

Despite its importance and universal relevance, shared prosperity is more challenging to monitor than global poverty. While one household survey is sufficient to calculate poverty, shared prosperity measurement requires two recent comparable surveys.

The implication of this stronger data requirement is that 91 out of the 164 economies with an international poverty rate measured in PovcalNet are included in the 6th edition of the Global Database of Shared Prosperity (GDSP).


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