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The World Region

What keeps the President of the World Bank up at night?

Jim Yong Kim's picture
Residents of Kashadaha village visit the Kashadaha Anando school in Kashadaha village, Bangladesh. © Dominic Chavez/World Bank
Residents of Kashadaha village visit the Kashadaha Anando school in Kashadaha village, Bangladesh. © Dominic Chavez/World Bank


This year’s World Economic Forum Annual Meeting comes at a time of good news for the world economy. As we said in this month’s Global Economic Prospects report, for the first time since the financial crisis, the World Bank is forecasting that the global economy will be operating at or near full capacity. We anticipate growth in advanced economies to moderate slightly, but growth in emerging markets and developing countries should strengthen to 4.5% this year.

How can we bridge the gap between citizens and state? Previewing the Open Budget Survey 2017

Vivek Ramkumar's picture

 Photo © Dominic Chavez/World Bank
Photo © Dominic Chavez/World Bank

On 30 January 2018 the International Budget Partnership (IBP) will release the Open Budget Survey 2017 – the latest round of the world’s only independent and comparable assessment of budget transparency, citizen participation, and independent oversight institutions in the budgeting process.

The OBS 2017 findings on the systems and practices that countries have in place to inform and engage citizens — or not — in decisions about how to raise and spend public resources, and on the institutions that are responsible for holding government to account, come at a critical juncture. Around the world, there has been a decline in public trust in government, in part due to instances of corruption but also because of dramatic increases in inequality. In a number of countries, leaders who have disguised their intolerant and reactionary agendas with populist rhetoric have been swept into power by those who’ve been left behind. These political shifts have driven out many government champions of transparency and accountability — especially those from countries in the global south.  More broadly across countries, there has been shrinking of civic space, rollbacks of media freedoms, and a crackdown on those who seek to hold government to account, including individual activists, civil society organizations, and journalists.

A Smarter Way to Keep Teachers in Malawi’s Remote Schools

Salman Asim's picture
 
Alberto Gwande, the Headteacher at the Khuzi school near Nathenje, Lilongwe Rural East District, Malawi.
Photo: Ravinder Casley Gera


Alberto Gwande and his students at Khuzi school in Malawi need more teachers. The school is severely understaffed, with only six teachers for nearly 800 students. “I was supposed to receive new teachers last year, but they never came,” recalls Alberto, the headteacher.

Khuzi is 20 kilometres away from Nathenje, the nearest large village with a trading center, and its Pupil-Teacher Ratio (PTR) is 131 pupils per teacher. In contrast, Chibubu school, located four kilometers from Nathenje, has a PTR of 65, while Mwatibu school, located inside the village, has a PTR of just 49. And yet, despite the shortage at Khuzi, it was Chibubu which received four new teachers last year.

World Bank at the World Urban Forum: Three key ways to implement the New Urban Agenda

Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez's picture
Over a year ago, national and city leaders from around the world gathered at the Habitat III conference in Quito to endorse the New Urban Agenda, which sets a new global standard for sustainable urban development and guides global efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in the era of climate change.
 
In just three weeks, early February 2018, representatives of the world’s countries and cities will convene again to discuss “Cities 2030, Cities for All: Implementing the New Urban Agenda” at the world’s premier conference on cities – the Ninth Session of the World Urban Forum (WUF9) in Kuala Lumpur, co-hosted by UN-Habitat and the government of Malaysia. 
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In the video, World Bank Senior Director Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez (@Ede_WBG) and Director Sameh Wahba (@SamehNWahba) share the World Bank's three priorities at the World Urban Forum.

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As the world’s largest financier on urban development, the World Bank will focus on three issues at the World Urban Forum that are essential for implementing the New Urban Agenda toward the Sustainable Development Goals:

Why the global economy could be turning a significant corner, in six charts

Ayhan Kose's picture

2018 will likely mark a turning point for the global economy. For the first time since 2008, the negative global output gap – defined as the difference between the levels of actual output and output if operating at full capacity – is expected to close. As the output gap closes in advanced economies, central banks are likely to normalize monetary policy after a decade of exceptional easing. With this anticipated withdrawal of stimulus by advanced economies, emerging market and developing economy policymakers need to remain alert to the potential for adverse spillovers.

Output gaps are closing

In 2018, for the first time since 2008, the negative global output gap is expected to be closed.

Global output gap
Source: World Bank staff estimates.
Notes: Output gaps calculated using multivariate filter. Global, regional, and group output gaps are calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP as weights. The sample includes 15 advanced economies (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States) and 23 EMDEs (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam). 2018 GDP is forecast. Dashed lines are 95 percent confidence interval bounds computed from the Kalman smoother state variances. Global lower and upper bounds are obtained as GDP-weighted averages of individual country lower and upper bounds.

What triggered the oil price plunge of 2014-2016 and why it failed to deliver an economic impetus in eight charts

Marc Stocker's picture
Also available in: Español

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

The 2014-16 collapse in oil prices was driven by a growing supply glut, but failed to deliver the boost to global growth that many had expected. In the event, the benefits of substantially lower oil prices were muted by the low responsiveness of economic activity in key oil-importing emerging markets, the effects on U.S. activity of a sharp contraction in energy investment and an abrupt slowdown in key oil exporters. 

Biggest drop in oil prices in modern history

Between mid-2014 and early 2016, the global economy faced one of the largest oil price declines in modern history. The 70 percent price drop during that period was one of the three biggest declines since World War II, and the longest lasting since the supply-driven collapse of 1986.

Real oil prices
Source: World Bank.
Notes: Real oil prices are calculated as the nominal price deflated by the international manufacturers unit value index, in which 100=2010. World Bank crude oil average. Last observation is November 2017.

Building solid foundations: How to promote potential growth, in six charts

Franziska Ohnsorge's picture

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Despite an acceleration of global economic activity, potential output growth (the growth that can be sustained at full employment and capacity) has slowed. The slowdown reflected weak investment growth, slowing productivity growth, and demographic trends. These forces will continue, and, unless countered, will depress global potential growth further over the next ten years. 

Global Potential Growth Is Below its Long-term Average. Global potential growth slowed in 2013-17 below its longer-term average, whether globally, among advanced economies (AEs) or among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
Sources: World Bank estimates; Haver Analytics; Penn World Tables; World Development Indicators, World Bank. 
Notes: A.  Based on production function approach, GDP-weighted averages for a sample of 30 advanced economies and 50 EMDEs. 

Why 2018 global growth will be strong, and why there is still cause for concern, in 10 charts

Carlos Arteta's picture
Also available in: Español |  Français | 中文 |  العربية 

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth accelerated to 3 percent in 2017, supported by a broad-based cyclical recovery encompassing more than half of the world’s economies, and is expected to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018. Global trade regained significant momentum, supported by an upturn in investment.

As headwinds ease for commodity exporters, growth across emerging and developing economies is expected to pick up. However, risks to the outlook remain titled to the downside, such as the possibility of disorderly financial market adjustment or rising geopolitical tensions.

A major concern in the subdued pace of potential growth across emerging market and developing economies, which is expected to further decline in the next decade. Structural reforms will be essential to stem this decline, and counter the negative effects of any future crisis that could materialize.

The broad-based recovery should continue

Global growth accelerated markedly in 2017, supported by a broad-based recovery across advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and it is expected to edge up in 2018.
 
Growth

Over 1.25 Million People are Killed on the Road Each Year

David Mariano's picture

Over 1.25 million people are killed each year on the road. And 20-50 million others are seriously impacted by road traffic injuries. While most regions have seen a decrease in road-traffic related death rates, Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East and North Africa still see over 20 deaths per 100,000 people every year.

A new report produced by the World Bank and funded by Bloomberg Philantrophies estimates the social and economic benefits of reducing road traffic injuries in low- and middle-income countries​.

Data science competition: predicting poverty is hard - can you do it better?

Tariq Khokhar's picture
 

If you want to reduce poverty, you have to be able to identify the poor. But measuring poverty is difficult and expensive, as it requires the collection of detailed data on household consumption or income. We just launched a competition together with data science platform Driven Data, to help us see how well we can predict a household’s poverty status based on easy-to-collect information and using machine learning algorithms.

The competition supplies a set of training data with anonymized qualitative variables from household surveys in 3 countries, including the “poor” or “not poor” classification for each observation.

The challenge is to build models which can accurately classify households from a different set of test data (with the poor/not poor classification removed!) for the same 3 countries, and then submit them for scoring. Performance is measured by the mean log loss for the 3 countries which tells us how accurate the classification models developed are.

Prizes are $6,000; $4,000; and $2,500 for the top 3 performing entries, plus a $2,500 bonus prize for the top-performing entry from a low- or lower-middle income country. The deadline for entries is February 28th 2018.

You can read the full problem description and enter the competition here, and see the Driven Data team’s “benchmark solution” based on a random forest classifier.

Good luck - we look forward to seeing your solutions!


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