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crude oil prices

What can history tell us about cartels in commodity markets?

John Baffes's picture
Recent developments in oil markets have led to intensive debates about OPEC’s viability and its role in the global crude oil market. OPEC, which was founded in 1960 to “coordinate and unify petroleum policies among member states”, currently accounts for about 40 percent of global crude oil production. At present, the organization has 12 active member countries: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar, Libya, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, and Angola.

Rain and shine: Deliberations in Istanbul on the impact of oil prices

Ulrich Bartsch's picture
On a recent rainy Saturday in Istanbul, the mood was so gloomy that a roomful of macro-economists were at pains to admit that the sharp fall in the oil price since June 2014 would actually benefit a lot of people. On display was an impressive assortment of "two handed economists", who saw almost as many losers as winners. They cited negative effects on fiscal balances in oil exporting countries, investment declines because of uncertainty, and demand shortfalls in countries in which consumers are still deleveraging after the Global Crisis. In addition, the gains in many countries would be tempered by government interventions, which may reduce subsidies or raise taxes without translating fiscal space into higher spending.

Prospects Weekly: Private capital flows to developing countries eased in October

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture
Private capital flows to developing countries eased in October, but remain close to their highest level in more than a year, led by robust bond issuance by emerging market sovereigns and firms. Business sentiment has strengthened in some countries, including the US and several emerging markets, but remains weak in general amid US “fiscal cliff” and Euro Area risks.

Prospects Daily: Crude oil prices fall from 9-week high

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Important developments today:

1. Crude oil prices fall from 9-week high

2. German producer price inflation falls to lowest in two years

Prospects Weekly: Renewed Euro Area tensions cut into capital flows to developing countries in May and June

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Renewed Euro Area tensions cut into capital flows to developing countries in May and June, and prompted a sharp downturn in business sentiment worldwide. Together these developments point to slower growth in 2012Q2 and Q3, unless recent improvements in financial markets and policy steps cause business sentiment to strengthen.