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Dutch Disease

In response: the Dutch disease and market forces

Hans Timmer's picture
The following is a response to an earlier blog post by Ulrich Bartsch and Donato De Rosa
 


Although there exists plenty of analysis of the Dutch disease, the resource curse, and Hotelling’s rule to fill several large libraries, there is nonetheless still ample room for debate about optimal policies in resource-rich countries. What is the optimal pace of extraction? Should they diversify? If so, how should they diversify and when should they diversify? What role should sovereign wealth funds play? Can the destabilizing adjustment process in the wake of an oil price collapse be avoided?

In a recent blog, Ulrich Bartsch and Donato De Rosa revisit the issue of resource revenue management. There are many good elements in this analysis, but there is one big problem: The same rigor that is used to analyze the goods markets is not used to analyze the accumulation of assets. While market forces are declared essential in the goods markets, little is said about the role of market forces in the accumulation of assets.
 
Let’s explore a bit more the relation between market forces, asset accumulation, and comparative advantages.

Of the Dutch and other Diseases

Ulrich Bartsch's picture

The recent collapse in oil prices is a good time to revisit the issues of resource revenue management. A good crisis should not go to waste, and it is in times like these that policy makers clearly realize their failures in the past and bemoan the lack of economic diversification away from oil.
 

Notes From the Field: Managing Oil Wealth in Brazil

Amir Fouad's picture

About "Notes From the Field": With this occasional feature, we let World Bank professionals who are conducting interesting trade-related projects around the globe explain some of the challenges and triumphs of their day-to-day work.

Pablo FajnzylberThe interview below is with Pablo Fajnzylber, who recently became sector Manager for the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) network in East Africa. The interview took place while Mr. Fajnzylber was Lead Economist and Sector Leader for PREM in Brazil. Prior to that, he worked at the Chief Economist’s Office for the Latin America and Caribbean region, the Finance and Private Sector Development Department for the same region and the Bank’s Development Economics Research Group. Mr. Fajnzylber has published extensively on a variety of development topics, including various books and articles in professional journals on issues related to growth, international trade, informality, crime, workers’ remittances, private sector development and climate change.

The Dutch Disease has not Infected Bangladesh, not yet any way

Zahid Hussain's picture

The Netherlands’ discovery of large natural gas deposits in the North Sea in the 1960s had serious repercussions on important segments of its economy, as the Dutch guilder became stronger, making Dutch non-oil exports less competitive. This has come to be known as "Dutch disease" or “resource curse.” Although generally associated with a natural resource discovery, it can arise from any large inflow of foreign currency--foreign assistance, foreign direct investment and remittances, among others. A surge in remittances can be expected to result in appreciation of the currency in the receiving country with all its attendant consequences of crowding out exports, crowding in imports, and induce movement of resources into the production of non-traded goods.

Bangladesh has experienced a remittance boom since FY01—with annual flows rising from $1.9 billion to $9.7 billion in FY09—growing at a compounded annual rate of 22.6 percent for eight years and still counting! As a result, remittance has now reached nearly 11 percent of GDP and is now the single largest source of foreign exchange earnings.