If the global financial crisis -- and the events that led up to it -- have taught us anything, it is,“No complacency with asset price booms”. We know first hand the dire consequences of bubbles, so it is clear monetary policy makers can no longer passively observe the evolution of asset prices. If an economy is to pursue macroeconomic and financial stability, they should coordinate with financial supervisors – in an economic marriage of convenience – to ensure financial regulation and monetary policies are complementary, and implemented in an articulated way.
A financial crisis is a difficult time to start a business. Credit is tight, demand is low, and the future is uncertain. Even in recovery periods, entrepreneurs may be skittish about making the enormous sacrifices necessary to launch a new enterprise and lenders may be unwilling to lend to new borrowers. New data from the Entrepreneurship Database – a collaborative effort between the Bank's Development Economics Group (DEC) and Doing Business - provide an interesting look at the relationship between new firm creation and the recent financial crisis and ongoing recovery. The main indicator is new firm entry density, defined as the ratio of new registrations of limited liability companies to the working age population. The data show that new firm entry density (“entry density”, for short) dropped sharply in response to the 2008-09 financial crisis but by 2011 had recovered to pre-crisis levels in many economies.
New firm entry density over time: Percent change in entry density as compared to 2004 levels (Source: Entrepreneurship Database, 2012)
New debt statistics show that the composition of long term debt inflows in 2011 follows pre-crisis patterns.
Debt statistics are central to understanding the impact of the financial crisis; the World Bank's International Debt Statistics provides a detailed picture of debt flows of 128 developing countries. Now that the 2013 edition has been released, and as a member of the team that put it together, I thought I would look back at what the data tell us actually happened to international debt flows to developing countries before and after the recent financial crisis.
Nearly two years after the "Great Recession" officially ended in the United States according to the NBER, the labor markets in many countries remain stagnant. At the recent Latin American Economic Association Meetings (LACEA) in Peru (Nov. 1-3), several presentations attempted to shed light on the impact of shocks originating in credit markets on the labor market. Today’s blog highlights three working papers – all still works in progress – that suggest that all recessions are not created equal and that much more research is needed to understand better how labor markets function.
Cover Photo: © Getty Images, Inc.
Book Title: In From the Shadow : Integrating Europe’s Informal Labor
by Truman Packard, Johannes Koettl, Claudio Montenegro
Few phenomena that occupy the time of governments and economists are as ambiguously defined and difficult to measure as the “shadow" or "informal" economy. Those terms immediately make some people think of the guys who built an extension for their house and insisted on being paid in cash. Others remember the taxi driver who took them home after a late night out, and either didn’t have a meter or didn’t turn it on. Those who have been in very poor countries might recall bustling markets where you can haggle for anything from a handful of fresh chilies to a pair of sandals or even livestock. All of these are likely to be part of the unregulated and untaxed transactions that make up a country's informal economy.
If you're hoping to avoid Olympics coverage in the next few weeks, you probably don't need me to tell you that you may be out of luck. However, I hope the papers and posts I mention in this blog post give you an alternative to endless TV or even physical exertion.
We had an interesting launch event for this volume on July 10th at the World Bank's Infoshop in Washington DC. There have been a number of media reports (see for example the story on Wall Street Journal by Eric Bellman, a Q&A in Mint by Malia Politzer, and another Q&A by Donna Barne). See also related posts on this blog from my co-editors Ibrahim and Jeff on their interventions during the book launch.
The question was on the pros and cons of HIV/AIDS funding and the tools were sharp insights and passionate views as some of the most influential figures in the fight against AIDS and poverty participated in a lively debate before a packed World Bank auditorium July 23.
The webcast event, co-hosted by the Bank, U.S. Agency for International Development/ U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and the medical journal The Lancet, asked a panel of experts to weigh global funding for HIV/AIDS in a fiscally strained, post financial crisis environment. The debate was part of the first International AIDS Conference to be held in Washington in 22 years.
- The World Region
- world bank
- San Francisco
- Roger England
- Richard Horton
- Rajiv Shah
- Michel Sidibé
- Mead Over
- Makere University Medical School
- Jim Yong Kim
- Jeffrey Sachs
- health systems
- financial crisis
- Festus Mogae
- Eric Goosby
- Earth Institute
- David Serwadda
- Columbia University
- Center for Global Development