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Going through the hoops with the support of the financial system: The Story of Jan Sarkis

Martin Melecky's picture

The following post is a part of a series that discusses 'managing risk for development,' the theme of the World Bank’s upcoming World Development Report 2014.

A composite story based on prevailing business practices

In January 1990 after the Velvet Revolution, Jan Sarkis, the son of a Greek immigrant in rural Czech Republic, decides to start a business to produce bottled juices. To obtain needed machinery and funds for working capital (fruits, containers, bottles, etc.), Jan takes credit from a local bank. He had heard from the locals that the region used to experience periodic floods. Although Jan hasn’t experienced any himself, he still buys flood insurance from a reputable insurance company.  In the 90s, rural Czech Republic was prone to thefts and burglary. So, Jan decides to protect his savings by depositing them in a bank. Good times settle in Czekia, and Jan’s business and the country begin to boom.

Prospects Weekly: Flows into the bond and equity funds of developing countries rallied in the second half of this year

Flows into the bond and equity funds of developing countries rallied in the second half of this year amid stabilization of financial markets and quantitative easing in high income countries. Following a weak second quarter due to financial market tumult, growth has picked up in the developing world, notably in China – although output growth slowed in India and South Africa due to country-specific factors. The strengthening of developing-country activity (and imports) has been reflected in a modest improvement in high income country growth, but the continuing weakness in the Euro Area, fiscal uncertainties in the United States, and weak Japanese sales to China have limited the overall improvement.
Foreign portfolio flows to developing countries rallied in the second half of 2012. Capital flows into emerging market bond and equity funds have picked up since July, in line with the general improvement in global financial conditions. After $9.6 billion exited equity funds in May/June, some $10 billion flowed in during September-November. Overall, net inflows for 2012 through end November reached $22 billion. This is a marked improvement from $41.2 billion outflow during the first 11 months of 2011, but only a third of the inflows in 2010. In comparison, flows to emerging-market fixed-income (bond) funds were relatively stable in the May/June period. Inflows into bond funds have totaled $61.6 billion in the year to date, more than twice the $25.7 billion in 2011 and surpassing the $60.2 billion received during the same period in 2010.
GDP growth for developing countries as a whole picked up in the third quarter, but weakened in a few due to country-specific factors. Partly as a result of stimulus measures and bolstered by improving US growth (see below), GDP growth in China picked up to a 9.1% annualized rate in the third quarter, up from 8.2% in Q2 and 6.1% in Q1. Russia’s growth also picked up to 2.3% in Q3, supported by a rise in crude oil prices (itself reflecting the strengthening of global activity). The pace of expansion in Brazil also improved, but remained modest at 1.3% (versus 0.8% in Q2). In contrast, mining tensions caused South Africa’s growth to slow from 3.4% in Q2 to 1.2% in Q3. In India, annualized GDP growth slowed from 5.8% to 3.8% as a result of delayed monsoon rains and weak industrial activity. In other developing countries, output growth accelerated from 3.7% in Q2 to 4.3% in Q3. Overall, GDP growth in developing countries remains 4 percentage points higher than in high income countries.
Following several quarters of deceleration, growth in high income countries has also started to improve, partly in response to an increase in developing country imports. Reflecting both weak Euro Area domestic demand and accelerating developing country imports, rising net exports moderated the annualized pace of GDP decline in the Euro Area from –0.7% in the second quarter to –0.2% in the third quarter. In the US, GDP growth strengthened to 2.7% in Q3, from 1.3% in Q2, as the housing sector started to rebound after years of consolidation. The recovery would have been stronger had uncertainty over fiscal policy not contributed to a decline in investment spending. In Japan, an end to earlier stimulus measures plus weak demand from China (in part due to island-related disputes) led to a 3.5% contraction in Q3 GDP. In other high income countries GDP growth picked up modestly to 1.5% in Q3 from 0.4% in Q2.

Download the Prospects Weekly as PDF here.

Prospects Daily: European stocks slipped on Friday with the benchmark index falling to a three-week low

Financial Markets…European stocks slipped on Friday with the benchmark index falling to a three-week low as early optimism on Spain’s new austerity measures was short-lived.

Spanish 10-year bond yield rose back above 6% amid uncertainty over its troubled banks before stress test results, fading optimism on the country’s debt cutting plan, and a looming Moody’s rating review which may cost the country its investment grade rating. 

South Africa's rand weakened against the dollar after Moody's cut the government's bond rating by one notch to Baa1 from A3, but bonds were supported by their imminent accession to Citi's World Government Bond Index (WGBI) on October 1.

High-income Economies…France’s government announced its 2013 budget that includes a package of tax hikes, including a 75% tax rate for people earning more than 1 mn euros, aimed at narrowing the deficit to 3.0% of GDP in 2013 from 4.5% this year.

Euro Area consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.7% (y/y) in September from 2.6% in August according to a Eurostat flash estimate, driven mainly by an increase in Spain’s inflation to 3.5% (y/y) from 2.7% in August after the government increased its value added tax (VAT) from 18% to 21%.

German retail sales edged up by 0.3% (m/m) in real terms in August (-0.8% y/y) after a 1% drop in July (-1.6% y/y), giving rise to hopes that private consumption will prop up the economy.

Canada's GDP rose 0.2%(m/m) in July (+1.9% y/y) compared to 0.1% (m/m) rise in June, as strength in manufacturing and utilities sectors offset weakness in crude oil extraction.

Japan’s industrial production fell 1.3% (m/m) in August as a slowdown in China and Europe weighed on exports, raising risks of a GDPcontraction this quarter.

South Korea’s industrial production fell 0.7% (m/m) percent, from weakness in trade partners and also due to a strike at Hyundai Motor Co.


Developing Economies…The Central Bank of Brazil increased its 2012 inflation forecast to 5.2% from 4.7%, while cutting only marginally its 2013 forecast to 4.9% from 5.0%.

Chile’s manufacturing output rose 6.8% (m/m) in August (3.6% y/y) as copper production rose by 11.3% from July. Retail sales growth accelerated to 11.3% (y/y) in August from 7.9% in July.

Democratic Republic of Congo’s central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentage points to 6%, citing macro-economic stability and inflation of close to 6% in August, lower than the targeted 9.9% for 2012.

The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic kept its monetary policy rate unchanged at 5.0% following interest rate cuts in June and August with a total reduction of 125 basis points this year.

Turkey's merchandise trade deficit declined significantly to US$5.86 bn in August from US$8.43 bn in August 2011 as goods export grew 14.5% (y/y) while imports declined 4.8% (y/y).

Thailand's industrial production index fell 11.3% (y/y) in August, declining for three consecutive months.

South African producer price inflation hit two year low level of 5.1% (y/y) in August, down from 5.4% in July.

Market Access: A Key Determinant of Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Harry Garretsen's picture

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is home to the world’s poorest countries. The region’s geographical disadvantages are often viewed as an important deterrent to its economic development. A country’s geography directly affects economic development through its effect on disease burden, agricultural productivity or the availability of natural resources. However, the new economic geography (NEG) literature, initiated by Krugman (1991), highlights another mechanism through which geography affects prosperity.

Libor-gate

Jamus Lim's picture

The recent kerfuffle over LIBOR (or perhaps, Lie-bor) has led many, including those living in developing countries but reliant on the global interest rate benchmark, wondering how the apparently flawed system was allowed to become such an major global institution. Blame for the entire fiasco has, predictably, come from the usual suspects on the usual suspects: apportioned equally to bankers' moral shortcomings and/or regulator complicity. These strike one as lacking imagination: after all, people (bankers and regulators inclusive) respond to incentives, and it is the institutional setting that governs the types of incentives individuals embedded in the system face. Presumably, if the existing framework for obtaining reported LIBOR rates did not involve substantial submitter discretion,[*] then both traders and regulators would react very differently to potential exploits of the system. After all, both groups would see little benefit from attempting to game the system if it offered little chance of success.

Through all the spilled ink (or pixels)---especially with regard to the now-conventional proposal to simply base LIBOR on actual transactions data, rather than self-reported numbers---little has been said about whether moving to such a system would yield actual efficiency improvements. In thinking about such issues, it is useful to keep two aspects of economic theory in mind.

First, in a standard double-auction setting such as LIBOR, theory and experiment suggest that efficient price discovery can occur with a remarkably small number of participants; with markets fiding equilibrium with as few as 6 to 8 agents (JSTOR subscription required). The argument that LIBOR is inherently inefficient just because it has only a small number of participating banks is therefore a weak one, in light of this fact. By the same token, however, the ease of attaining efficient outcomes with a small number of agents means that a setting where only actual transactions data are used to establish LIBOR need not be threatened by the fear of potentially thin markets.

Indeed, the natural advantage that using actual transaction data offers is the possibility that rates adapt to changing market conditions. In calm times when markets are thick, large institutions with superior economies of scale will tend to possess a funding cost advantage. Consequently, the transacted market LIBOR rate will be lower, reflecting the overall positive spillovers that result from having larger players engaged in the wholesale funding market. In turbulent times, however, the size and relative opacity of large bank balance sheets may lead to rational concerns by market participants over counterparty risk. In such circumstances, smaller banks with balance sheets less exposed to market volatility could find themselves being able to secure funds at a lower cost than the larger banks can. These smaller banks will then be the ones setting LIBOR at the margin. Again, the transacted rates will ultimately reflect the best available rates, even in such thin markets.

Second, even if we want to move away from a straightforward market mechanism based on realized transactions, we are aware of mechanisms that elicit truthful, incentive-compatible bids from market participants in alternative auction settings. Although such mechanisms alone cannot, alas, guarantee the absence of collusion (the problem with LIBOR), we also know that collusion becomes harder to sustain with a large number of players and free entry. So a system that combines both of these elements---preference revealing bids and ease of entry---could be the basis for an alternative market structure for generating LIBOR. Note that even in this setup, it would still be the case that LIBOR should be set on the basis of actual transactions, rather than imagined ones.

The bottom line is that there are good reasons to rely on actual transacted data to establish LIBOR, subject to some potential tweaking of the mechanism. LIBOR is widely considered one of the world's most important benchmark rates, and the erosion of trust in the system due to recent events suggests that it is high time to move away from the traditional, "gentleman's agreement" approach to LIBOR rate-setting. This would yield clear benefits not just for the millions of people around the world who implicitly rely on LIBOR in their financial contracts, but also for rebuilding trust in the international financial system, more generally.

*. Submitters repond to the question: "At what rate could you borrow funds, were you to do so by asking for and then accepting inter-bank offers in a reasonable market size just prior to 11 am?" Even setting aside deliberate manipulation, the scope of the question offers significant flexibility to the submitter, both morally and legally: the language includes terms such as could and reasonable, which leave substantial scope for individual judgement and discretion. To the extent that this was by design---maybe the BBA fears thin markets rendering LIBOR too volatile on a day-to-day basis---it is now clear that such a degree of flexibility is, on net, a negative for the system as a whole.

Impact of the Financial Crisis on New Firm Registration

Leora Klapper's picture

As reports of sluggish global job creation continue, some look to new firms as a source of net job creation (Haltiwanger, 2011). But the lead article of this month’s Economics Letters, citing panel data from 93 countries, shows that most countries experienced a sharp drop in new firm registration during the financial crisis. As discussed in an earlier blog, relatively larger contractions are seen in countries with more developed financial markets and where entrepreneurs depend more on banks for start-up capital.

U.S. Industrial Production still on the rise

Important developments today:

1.  EU unveils new rules for financial markets

2.  U.S. Industrial Production up in August

EU unveils new rules for financial markets. The European Union proposed on Wednesday tougher new rules to curb derivative trading and short-selling, two loosely regulated forms of speculative trading activities that have been blamed by some for contributing to the global financial crisis. The new rules would require over-the-counter (OTC) contracts to be cleared centrally and be reported to “trade repositories” in order to allow regulators to have a better grip on the market activity. The proposed rules would also give national regulators in Europe the power to temporarily restrict or ban short-selling in case of serious financial instability. Short-selling—selling a borrowed security with the intention of repurchasing it later at a lower price—has been blamed for exacerbating some of the sharp downswing in share prices during the financial crisis. In particular, the controversial practice of naked short-selling, which sell shares without having made any arrangements to secure them, has been heavily criticized. The proposals still need to be approved by EU member states and parliament.

U.S. industrial production up in August. In signs of a continued recovery, U.S factories, mines and utilities increased output in August, the 13th monthly increase since July 2009 [see chart]. In figures released by the Federal Reserve today, U.S. industrial production increased by 0.2%, a decline from the 0.6% recorded in July. Unlike the July production figures that were driven by an 8.3% rise in the production of motor vehicles and parts, in August motor vehicle production served as a drag, falling by 5.2%. On the brighter side, August figures show that the increase was driven by increases in the purchase of business equipment (0.7% m/m), thereby confirming that U.S companies continue to replace outdated equipment. With consumer demand still in the doldrums, business investment has been important to US growth. In Q2 2010, non-residential fixed investments, which includes industrial output, contributed 1.54% to U.S GDP growth of 1.6%. However, going forward, industrial production could be more constrained as global growth prospects moderate on the back of a waning inventory cycle and winding down of government stimulus programs.

 

Source:  World Bank DEC Prospects Group and Thomson Reuters.

 

Among emerging markets:

In East Asia and the Pacific, China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) in August increased by 1.4% to $7.6 billion, in a release by the Ministry of Commerce.

In Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS, Russia’s industrial production increased 7% y/y in August, in a release by the Federal State Statistics Service.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana’s inflation reached 9.4% y/y in August compared to July 9.5%, stated the country’s Statistical Service. Inflation in Ghana has been decreasing since last year’s 20.7% in June.

Debating Cambodia's growth: A tsunami in 2009?

Stéphane Guimbert's picture

The global slowdown is hurting Cambodia's tourism industry, with fewer visitors in late 2008 than in the same period of 2007. Image credit: flydime at Flickr under a Creative Commons license.
Cambodia was one of the few Asian countries saved from the December 2004 devastating tsunami. But, a few days ago, at the Cambodia Economic Forum, panelists suggested that the economic tsunami – or various synonyms – would not spare Cambodia.

It's been a couple of months since the World Bank prepared the "perfect storm" report on the recent economic developments in East Asia. Our view at the time was that the crisis would reveal some of Cambodia's economic vulnerabilities – i.e. its lack of export diversification and its extreme reliance on foreign investment for growth. I think that this is an important lesson from our recent analysis on growth in Cambodia (more on this later).

Our projections for 2009 at the time were just below 5 percent GDP growth. This is consistent with the projections of the Government, the IMF, the Asian Development Bank, and an International Labor Organization (ILO) report on the impact of the crisis released yesterday. The Economist Intelligence Unit has a more pessimistic projection of 1 percent.

So who is right?

Regional roundup: Finance in East Asia – Feb. 11

James Seward's picture

Well, the bad news continues across the East Asia and Pacific region. The Financial Times just ran a long article on the "speed and ferocity of the region's economic downturn." The piece highlighted that the fast downturn was a result of Asia's over-reliance on export-led growth over the past decade. This follows the IMF's slashed growth forecasts for the large East Asian economies. It projected only 5.5 percent growth across developing Asia for 2009, which sounds great for most economies these days, but it is way off of the 7.8 percent posted last year.

The IMF is expecting only 6.7 percent growth in China, which is 1.8 percent less than what they forecast only in October. This contrasts sharply with the view of the World Bank's Chief Economist, Justin Lin, who just two weeks ago said he thought China could achieve the target rate of growth – 8 percent – this year because of fiscal stimulus spending.

Regional roundup: Finance in East Asia

James Seward's picture

This is the first blog entry of what I hope to be regular updates from the financial sector and related areas across the East Asia and Pacific region. So, let’s see how the New Year began in Asia.

Unfortunately, the bad news keeps coming on the economies in the region in terms of exports and industrial output. Exports and industrial production fell 6.2 percent in Malaysia in November and exports from Thailand fell 18 percent in November. Surveys of consumer confidence, business sentiment, and manufacturers across the region have all shown significant declines.

Will the current financial turmoil change the financial architecture in Asia?

James Seward's picture

It has been a long time since I’ve written, but the past two months have been quite hectic for us!  I just returned from China, where we were working with the capital market supervisor, and the issue of the financial sector regulatory architecture, or how market supervisors should be organized, was a topic of discussion.  In early June, there was a conference with all of the key financial supervisors on the topic of integrated regulation and supervision,

Markets and the Hammer of Public Opinion

Sina Odugbemi's picture

Photo Credit: Flickr user rednuhtPublic opinion is a critical force in politics, including all aspects of governance. To provoke hostile or negative public opinion is to invite a gigantic hammer or a wrecking ball. And I am saying that not because I want to be dramatic but to capture some of the scale of what is happening in the current global financial crisis. For, financial markets are also affected by the power of public opinion.