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Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects January 2016: Regional integration and spillovers

Derek H. C. Chen's picture
A key risk to global growth in 2016 is that a number of emerging markets slow simultaneously. Following a decade of deepening integration among emerging markets and developing countries, weakness in a few major emerging markets could spread to set back activity across the emerging market and developing country world. The January 2016 Global Economic Prospects report examines regional integration and the possibility of spillovers from growth shocks at the global and regional level.

Global economic prospects: sluggish emerging market activity to weigh on global growth in 2016

Carlos Arteta's picture

Global economic growth is projected to pick up modestly in 2016 to 2.9 percent after a disappointing 2015, the January 2016 Global Economic Prospects report says.  Growth slowed last year to a 2.4 percent rate, 0.4 percentage points below earlier projections, amid falling commodity prices and weak flows of trade and capital.

Growth is expected to edge up this year as advanced economies grow more solidly, commodity prices stabilize, China continues to gradually rebalance its economy and global financial conditions remain benign despite rising United States interest rates.  Even so, the forecast is lower than projections of six months ago, principally due to the simultaneous slowdown in major emerging market economies.
 

When China met Africa

Tehmina S. Khan's picture
China’s expanding presence in Sub-Saharan Africa has been a major catalyst for growth in the region. Contrary to widespread opinion, its engagement covers all aspects of development. Stronger domestic policies will help countries in the region increase the gains from this growing partnership.

Save first, then spend: history’s lessons on the influence of low oil prices on global growth

Marc Stocker's picture
The impact of falling oil prices is becoming increasingly visible, but the global economy is yet to hit a nice stride - oil exporters face severe headwinds, oil-importing China continues to slow, other large oil-importing countries have seen mixed developments since the start of 2015, and financial market volatility has increased.

World Economy in 2014: Troubling Stagnant Growth

Jim Yong Kim's picture
© Igor Stevanovic/Shutterstock



A major World Bank Group report this week found that growth is stagnating in developing countries. It’s projected to be below 5 percent for the third straight year. That’s too modest to create the kind of jobs we need to improve the lives of the poorest people around the world.

If this trend continues, it will have long-term negative implications on developing countries, including the loss of an historic opportunity to end extreme poverty in the next generation. Millions of people around the world have been able to escape poverty over the last few decades largely because of high economic growth in developing countries.

The Global Economy Without Steroids

Sri Mulyani Indrawati's picture
Economic growth is back. Not only are the United States, Europe, and Japan finally expanding at the same time, but developing countries are also regaining strength. As a result, world GDP will rise by 3.2% this year, up from 2.4% in 2013 – meaning that 2014 may well be the year when the global economy turns the corner. The fact that advanced economies are bouncing back is good news for everyone.

The Long-Stalled World Economy Shifts into Gear

Jim Yong Kim's picture



The global economy is finally emerging from the financial crisis. Worldwide, growth came in at an estimated 2.4 percent in 2013, and is expected to rise to 3.2 percent this year. This improvement is due in no small part to better performance by high-income countries. Advanced economies are expected to record 1.3 percent growth for the year just finished, and then expand by 2.2 percent in 2014. Meanwhile, developing countries will likely grow by 5.3 percent this year, an increase from estimated growth of 4.8 percent in 2013.

The world economy can be seen as a two-engine plane that was flying for close to six years on one engine: the developing world. Finally, another engine – high-income countries – has gone from stalled to shifting into gear. This turnaround, detailed in the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects 2014 launched last Tuesday, means that developing countries no longer serve as the main engine driving the world economy. While the boom days of the mid-2000s may have passed, growth in the emerging world remains well above historical averages.

High-income countries continue to face significant challenges, but the outlook has brightened. Several advanced economies still have large deficits, but a number of them have adopted long-term strategies to bring them under control without choking off growth.

World Bank sees stronger global growth on account of firming up of activity in high-income countries

The world economy is projected to strengthen this year, with growth in high-income economies appearing to be finally turning the corner five years after the global financial crisis, according to the World Bank’s newly-released Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report.
 

 

Global Economy and Development Roundup

Swati Mishra's picture

In the recently released Global Economic Prospects June 2012, World Bank experts warned of long period of volatility. Resurgence of the Euro Area tensions had eroded economic gains of first 4 months of 2012, said the report.  And as the leaders of the 27 European Nations convened in Brussels yesterday to tackle the crisis, it was labeled as the “last chance” summit. The outcome: Up All Night, But Consensus Finally Reached, says a Time.com story. According to the story, published today, “Yet, despite what were described as tense and grinding negotiations, decisions announced early Friday morning appear to represent important steps towards the survival of the embattled euro zone—and in both the short- and long-term context of the crisis.” This much needed move comes at a crucial point and will hopefully have a positive impact on developing countries. However, a lot remains to be done. Following is a sampling of some interesting research and analysis by World Bank as well as others highlighting issues of current import to global economy and development.


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