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Latin America’s growth prospects: Made in China?

Tatiana Didier's picture

Latin America's Growth prospects:Made in China?

Global turmoil. Growing prospects of another recession. Crisis in the Eurozone. China’s role as a global growth and recovery engine thrown into question.

The current situation looks worrying enough as it is for Latin America –and the rest of the world for that matter- but the region’s growth prospects should be looked at beyond the current juncture and on the merits of its long-term strengths.
 
Here’s why. The last ten years or so have been very good for many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. They have witnessed the consolidation of a stable and resilient
macro-financial framework, relatively high growth rates, and advances in the equity agenda.

This new economic face of the region was perhaps most clearly portrayed by a rather robust performance, especially of South American countries, in the context of the recent global crisis. In effect, compared to the middle-income country average, the region’s recession in 2009 was relatively short-lived and, with the notable exception of Mexico, remarkably mild, which helped to make its recovery in 2010-2011 stronger.

Can China become the engine for world economic growth?

David Dollar's picture

This somewhat provocative question was the title of a conference hosted by Oxford and Standard Charter this week in London.  My answer was: "No, not tomorrow; but yes, eventually – especially if China continues to vigorously pursue economic reform."
 
The reason that China cannot be the engine of global growth tomorrow is straight-forward.  For the last decade an awful lot of the final demand in the world has come from the U.S.  That era is over for the time being as U.S. households now concentrate on rebuilding their savings.  No one country can fill the gap left by the slowdown in U.S. consumption: Japan, Germany, and China together have less consumption than the U.S., so no one of them can replace the U.S. as the major source of demand in the world.  It's not realistic to expect China to play that role.  But we are probably moving into a more multi-polar period in which there is more balanced growth in all of the major economies. 

China’s economic slowdown—what to do?

Louis Kuijs's picture

Patients and a nurse in a Cambodia hospital. © Chhor Sokunthea/World Bank

Having an identity is part of living in a modern society, and the key to accessing public services, bank accounts, and jobs. But how should developing countries with tight budgets go about building a national system that records births and deaths and establishes identities?

A panel including representatives from Ghana, Moldova, and Canada explored that question and related issues Friday at Making Everyone Count: Identification for Development, during the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings. The event was live-streamed in Arabic, English, French, and Spanish and moderated by Kathy Calvin, president and CEO of the United Nations Foundation.

Most countries likely to fall short of achieving the 2015 Millenium Development Goals

Michael Figueroa's picture


In a recent blog post, Oxfam International Executive Director Winnie Byanyima highlights a critical issue all of us working in international development must address: How can we reduce the extreme inequality between the haves and the have-nots around the world? Oxfam’s launch of the Even it Up campaign takes the organization’s research findings on inequality another step further by offering policy solutions to help tackle this growing problem.

Oxfam’s report offers new evidence of an ever-widening gap between the rich and poor that threatens to undermine poverty eradication, examines the causes of the inequality crisis, and proposes concrete solutions to overcome it.

Is China de-linking from the U.S. economy?

David Dollar's picture
版本: English

 纵观人类有文字可考的历史,99%的人从未发明过一样东西。不过,一个人们普遍认同的事实是:经济福祉长期、持续增长源自人的创造力和创新力。就这一点而言,过去700万年中的普通人或绝大多数人为可能做到的事情提供了完全误导的指引。

平均定律若应用不当,则会带来误导信息。

这就是每个国家似乎想法设法鼓励人们创造和创新的原因所在,也是每个国家希望获得诺贝尔奖的原因所在,但后者显然有悖常理。偶尔,也有像塞浦路斯这样不太可能取得成功的国家取得了成功。平均值并不完全是衡量人类成功的一项指标,否则人类历史仍会停留在700万年之前。


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