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Inflation

Taming the Tides of High Inflation in South Sudan

Utz Pape's picture



Six years after independence, South Sudan remains one of the world’s most fragile states, unable to emerge from cycles of violence. About half the population—that is, about 6 million of 12 million people—are food insecure. A famine was declared in February 2017. And though the famine was contained (thanks to massive humanitarian support), food insecurity remains at extremely high levels.

About 2 million South Sudanese have fled the country and another 1.9 million are internally displaced. The economy is estimated to have contracted by 11 percent in the past fiscal year, due to conflict, low oil production, and disruptions to agriculture. The fiscal deficit, inflation, and parallel market premium have all soared.

This macroeconomic collapse has crushed the livelihoods of many South Sudanese.

Will South Africa turn the corner in 2017?

Marek Hanusch's picture
Photo By: David Stanley/Flickr


The year 2016 was difficult for many countries. We estimate that global economic growth slowed from 2.7% in 2015 to 2.3% in 2016. High-income economies struggled with subdued growth and low inflation amidst increased uncertainty about policy direction in light of rising populism. Among emerging markets and developing economies, commodity exporters were most affected by the end of the commodity price boom, growing by only 0.3%—much in line with our estimate of 0.4% growth for South Africa, the lowest growth rate since the 2009 recession after the global financial crisis. By contrast, commodity importers carried the torch of global growth in 2016, expanding by 5.6%.

Low oil prices and monetary policy in developing countries: Mind the gap!

Ayhan Kose's picture
Excluding a handful of oil exporters or countries where sharply depreciating currencies or domestic factors caused inflation to soar, developing country inflation has fallen quite significantly over the past few months and is expected this year to be at its lowest level since 2009 (Figure 1). The broad-based pattern of slowing inflation has been largely driven by plunging oil prices, albeit to varying degrees reflecting in particular exchange rate developments, the extent of fuel subsidies and other price regulations.

Macroeconomic implications of the recent oil price decline

Raju Huidrom's picture
Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel (bbl), oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014. It is not the first sharp oil price swing: there have been five other episodes of oil price drops in excess of 30 percent and several more episodes of oil price spikes. Over the past five decades, these steep drops and spikes have stimulated an extensive literature on the macroeconomic implications of oil price swings and the channels through which they operate.

Prospects Daily: US consumer confidence falls; inflation moderated in Chile, Peru and Mexico but rose slightly in Brazil

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture


Financial Markets…U.S. Treasuries slid for the first time in four days, with the benchmark note yields 3 basis points to 1.62%, as a government report showed U.S. employers added more than forecasted jobs in November. U.S government bonds have advanced 2.8% this year as of yesterday, after gaining 9.8% in 2011 and 5.9% in 2010.

Mongolia: what are the risks for an economy that's growing at 20 percent?

Rogier van den Brink's picture

Available in: монгол хэл

There is good news coming out of Mongolia, the land of the eternal blue skies. The economy racked up a second quarter of high growth: the third quarter came in at 20.8 percent, topping the equally amazing second quarter of 17.3 percent (year-on-year GDP growth), as discussed in the World Bank's latest Mongolia Quarterly Update. And while this growth spurt originated in the mining sector, with Oyu Tolgoi—a mega copper and gold mine—getting ready to start producing in 2012 and a whole battery of other, smaller mines producing at full capacity, the high growth is quite broad-based. Even manufacturing is doing well.


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