The good governance of public financial resources is often more challenging during good times than during bad times. In the event of an unexpected negative shock – say a drought or a sudden decline in demand for the commodities produced in the country – it is generally rewarding, from a political perspective, for the government to launch ‘stimulus packages’ to keep the economic engine running.
Over the last few years, Brazil’s growth has significantly decelerated. Accompanying this slowdown, a change in commentary on Brazil’s economic future has emerged, and is reflected in a recent ratings downgrade of Brazilian sovereign paper and an overall much-bleaker growth outlook both for the near and medium term.
In a new 'Economic Premise' note, Philip Schellekens and I examine three contributing factors to this change in sentiment: macroeconomic management, the external environment, and microeconomic fundamentals. Among these, we argue that the relative lack of progress on the microeconomic reform agenda has been far more detrimental to the growth outlook than either the credibility cost of recent macroeconomic management or the negative influence of a less supportive external environment.
EAP Regional Vice President Axel van Trotsenburg recently traveled to Indonesia to see the challenges of a dynamic middle-income country tackling poverty and infrastructure challenges. Van Trotsenburg talks about Indonesia's challenges in this video.
East Asia economies are projected to grow by 7.8 percent this year, outpacing last year’s growth and potentially boosting the world economy, according to a new report by the World Bank Group. But World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, Axel van Trotsenburg, said in order to maintain sustained long term growth, East Asia governments must create jobs and improve infrastructure.