Or, à Madagascar, seule 1/5 de la population déclare faire entièrement confiance à la Présidence et les taux sont encore plus faibles pour des institutions comme l’Assemblée nationale (6%) et les Tribunaux (4%).Comment s’attendre à ce que le Gouvernement puisse être performant, à travers sa politique budgétaire, si la vaste majorité des Malgaches ne font confiance ni à leurs institutions, ni à leurs dirigeants ?
As OECD countries struggle to reduce their fiscal deficits, consider the case of Madagascar. Half of its budget was financed by external assistance which, as a result of political turmoil in the country, has disappeared.
After almost one and half year of political instability, the economy is hurt but not dead.
The formal private sector has revealed timid signs of recovery (far from pre-crisis levels) and the informal sector has been vibrant as the result of the good performance of the primary sector (mostly due to exceptional weather) and rising trade activities in urban centers.
Apres près d’une année et demie de crise politique, l’économie malgache résiste grâce à la timide reprise du secteur privé, mais notamment au boom du secteur informel.
After one year (still counting) of political crisis, uncertainty remains the key word in Madagascar.
Private activities have rebounded compared to the first quarter 2009 but remain below pre-crisis levels. Fiscal policy, globally cautious, went through several “stop and go” episodes, sending mixed messages to financial markets, especially visible through the recent variations in the exchange and interest rates.
This uncertainty is exacerbated by the lack of consistency in policy decisions.
Incertitude reste le maître mot pour décrire où en est l’économie malgache aujourd’hui.
Madagascar’s economy has been in recession since the beginning of the political crisis in March 2009, and prospects for 2010 don’t look too promising. The prudent fiscal policy adopted by the Government will be increasingly difficult to sustain in 2010. Key financial indicators continue to be vulnerable to policy shifts and shocks, and export competitiveness losses have begun to create pressures on the balance of payments. All in all, a major turnaround in the downward trend of economic activities is unlikely to occur in 2010.
If recent trends persisted during September, three new developments seem to indicate a deterioration in public finance and economic activities: (i) the Government borrowed on the domestic financial market (about half of its monthly expenditures) for the first time since the beginning of the crisis; (ii) the exchange rate depreciated compared to the Euro and the USD over the past two weeks (down by 6 and 4% respectively); and (iii) international trade continued to decline (exports in volume, down by 62% in August compared to the same period a year ago).