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population

One Billion Tanzanians, One Billion Ugandans

Anton Dobronogov's picture

It struck me to find out that according to the UN’s official projections, populations of Tanzania and Uganda would exceed one billion people by 2100 (up from 45 and 33 million, respectively, in 2010) if total fertility rates in each of these countries remain constant at their 2010 levels (5.6 and 6.4 children per woman, respectively).

To be sure, this “constant fertility scenario” is not a likely one. For a number of reasons, fertility rates tend to fall as economies develop, and the process of demographic transition from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility is already under way in both countries. Still, even under assumption that total fertility rates will gradually decline to about 2 children per woman (and there is no international migration), the UN estimates that there will be 171 million Ugandans and 316 million Tanzanians in 2100.

A new global data network on population and environment

Jed Friedman's picture

Co-authors and I are soon to complete (fingers crossed) some new work on climatic shocks and neo-natal mortality. But our findings are not the topic of this post. Rather I want to discuss the necessary behind-the-scenes data construction work that had to take place before the first regression could be estimated. The work involved the aggregation of fifty plus national level microdata sets (from Demographic and Health Surveys) and then a merger with geo-coded historical weather data (from NOAA).

Cities and PPPs: I’ve got Ulaanbaatar on my mind

David Lawrence's picture
Photo courtesy of christahasenkopf.com

I recently read a quote by Edward Glaeser, an urban economist, in the latest issue of IFC’s quarterly journal on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), which caught my attention:

Statistically, there is a near-perfect correlation between urbanization and prosperity among nations. As a country’s urban population rises by 10 percent, the country’s per capita output increases by 30 percent.

Latin America: Putting a human face on health systems

Keith Hansen's picture

Latin America: Crying out for good health systems. Photo: Marie Chantal Messier

It takes a health system to raise a healthy child—or nation. And this is true here in Latin America or anywhere else in the world.

That’s the big message of a small video the Bank has recently launched, featuring an adorable animated newborn named Maya. In it, Maya cries profusely, many times, but her tears are not the sad consequence of disease or discomfort but of the baby feeling well. Maya’s are happy tears –the product of a healthy baby. You can follow her journey into adulthood on her own Facebook page

Earth hits 7 billion mark, Brazil’s clinics provide hope to the poor

Carlos Molina's picture

As the world’s population hits today the 7 billion mark, unleashing mixed emotions across the globe, Latin America can consider itself lucky that overcrowding is not that big of a deal in our neck of the woods.

Or is it? Experts point out that while the region’s share of the world’s population is a mere 8% -or 560 million- a great concern is that the vast majority of those people –up to 75%- live in cities, leading to overstressed basic services, such as healthcare. My colleague James Martone of the Broadcast Unit, went to Northern Brazil to film a project about a community that has found innovative ways to provide healthcare for the poor.
 

The Seven Billion Mark

Eduard Bos's picture

Photo: Arne Hoel, The World Bank

The UN Population Division has determined that the 7 billion world population mark will be reached today, October 31, 2011. This week’s Economist, the Guardian online, and the New York Times have written on this already, and other news media are following suit. Having produced the World Bank’s demographic projections for some years, and now working as a demographer in the World Bank’s Africa Region, let me add my perspective to the mix.

The approximate date of the world reaching the 7 billion mark is no surprise. When the Bank issued demographic projections back in 1985 (linked to World Development Report 1984– the only one in the series to have specifically focused on the demographic aspects of development), the 7 billion milestone was forecast for early 2011. This is quite close to the current estimate, especially when you consider the projection span of 26 years. At the global level, demographic projections are fairly reliable (but less so for individual countries or small regions).

China demographic decline will reduce future growth - Wang Feng

Sanket Mohapatra's picture

China's fertility rate is below replacement rate. But now economists say the phenomenon of fewer births is turning into a negative. The AP, Reuters and New York Times carry stories of Wang Feng, Director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy. He says that China already had 14 percent fewer people in their 20s compared with a decade ago. In the next 20 years, he said, their numbers will dwindle an additional 17 percent, while the share of China’s population that is 65 and older is projected to double to 16 percent. Wang said the median age of the Chinese population is now 34 years old. He estimates that by 2050, half the population will be 50 or older, assuming the fertility rate is 1.6. By 2050, nearly one in four Chinese will be elderly, according to United Nations projections. The median age of Chinese will be higher than that of Americans by 2040.