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Prediction markets

PPPs endorsed on the banks of Lake Victoria

There is a place where the Nile is born, and the locals can show you exactly where it is. It is quite a privilege to see it in person—a place that was searched for by generations of explorers in Africa. I am talking about that spot on the northern bank of Lake Victoria where the White Nile first enters the world. Another important birth is taking place nearby in a ritzy neighborhood of Kampala called Munyonyo.

The lights are out for India’s retailers

Mohammad Amin's picture

In a previous post, I mentioned that inadequate power supply was identified by a majority of retailers in India as the single most important obstacle (from a list of 20 obstacles) to their business. In this post, I report on the extent of power outages faced by Indian retailers and the associated losses to them–these are indeed large by international standards, and especially so in the less developed regions of India.

Freeing up labor markets in Latin America

Ryan Hahn's picture

Fellow blogger Dave Kaplan makes a cogent point in a note on labor regulations in Latin America. He points out that on a net basis, making labor regulations more flexible in most countries will result in a net gain in employment. More workers will be fired, but even more workers will be hired as a result of increased flexibility (Table 1 below the jump). Only one country in the study (Nicaragua) would see no net gain, and a number of countries would see large net gains (e.g.

What makes a market smart?

Ryan Hahn's picture

The idea that markets can be smart may have lost some of its allure since the financial crisis. How could so many smart people have gotten it so wrong? Over the last week, I read James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds, and it contains a useful proviso to the idea that crowds (or markets, as this is simply one version of a crowd) are smart. Surowiecki lays out four conditions that must be met for a crowd to be smart: