"No single national score can accurately reflect contrasts in the types of corruption found in a country." Michael Johnston, 2001
Corruption comes in various forms - administrative corruption being one example, state capture (a.k.a. “grand corruption”) being another. Although administrative corruption is not necessarily the most damaging form for economic growth and private sector development in Russia, and while its occurrence appears to be declining in Russia, perceptions of “state capture” are worsening.
Spare a thought for the economist.
While in the past, people might have resorted to reading tea leaves to figure out what their future has in store for them, these days, at least on economic matters, people turn to the next available economist. But while economists are great at analyzing the past, predicting the future is still a complicated task.
In order to come up with projections, economists look at data. Now, it turns out that economists are often making long-term assessments based on the latest news. Take a look at these growth projections for ten years ahead for Russia, based on polls of economists conducted by Consensus Economics, along with actual growth in the year of the projections (Figure 1). Clearly, while long-term projections are less volatile, the two are correlated – the better the present the better the future, and vice versa. In particular, long-term projections have noticeably nudged down since the crisis.
Figure 1: Actual Growth and 10-Years Ahead Growth
Projections for Russia (percent), 2004 to 2012
Financial Markets…Spanish and Italian government bonds bounced back from their earlier losses, with their benchmark 10-year yields dropping 6 basis points to 5.17% and 4 bps to 4.36%, as a report showed German investor confidence surged to the highest level in nearly three years this month, boosting risk-appetite for the region’s high-yielding debt. Notably, Spain sold €4 billion ($5.35 billion) of 3- and 9-month bills with an average yield of 0.421%, down from 0.441% in January auction.
To do this, we rely heavily on macroeconomic data from the national statistical office, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and other sources. While this sounds straightforward enough (given it’s what economists around the world do when they compile their latest economic assessments) – it’s a rather indirect way to assess the issue.
Open Government is increasingly perceived as a new paradigm for ICT-enabled government transformation offering a number of instruments for improved governance, transparency and innovation. Ulyanovsk Oblast of Russia has already made substantial progress in e-government, IT industry development and IT literacy, and has taken practical steps that have made it an early leader in Open Government initiatives in Russia, as recognized in a study published in May 2012 by the Russian Institute of the Information Society.
Imagine you need a car to commute long distances to your workplace or the closest supermarket, to visit your parents and to bring your child to school. Therefore, you want to spend the money you have been able to put aside on a large purchase: a new and reliable car. However, you do not know how to drive, nor how do you have even a basic understanding of any technical aspects of a car, not to mention any knowledge about how to maintain a car.
Also, imagine that everything you have heard so far about car dealers from your family, friends and neighbors is that they have a very bad attitude, do not act in your best interest and try to sell you overpriced vehicles with hidden fees and features you do not need. Given your lack of knowledge of how to choose and use a car and your lack of trust, would you still feel confident about approaching a car dealer? Most probably not.
This analogy also applies to one’s participation in financial markets. Especially in developing economies, where most globally unbanked people live. If you do not have knowledge of features and risks associated with financial products, do not know how to choose and use these products, lack any basic understanding of inflation, interest rates and compound interest, it is unlikely that you will participate in financial markets, or that you will benefit from them if you do. A lack of trust in financial service providers will do the same.
Spending a day at a kindergarten can be eye-opening for an adult. I’ll tell you why.
The school in question is what we, in the Russian Federation, call an inclusive school – where children with special needs are part of a regular kindergarten and participate in the same activities and programs as others. It works! This school was started in 2011 and does not distinguish between children with special needs and others. Both groups are part of the same class, sit at the same table, and participate in the same activities. Not many places in the world do this.
The inclusive model, while not unique, is still rare. But other than that distinctive nature, what’s so special about it?