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Prospects Weekly: Record high auto sales, G-20 face sharp fiscal adjustment, emerging market bond spreads down but yields up

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

It is difficult for many of us to focus on more than one thing at a time. Maybe we are hard-wired that way. But if ever our species needed to evolve such an ability, now is the time. At the same time that we urgently need to decarbonize the global economy, we also need to plan for a very different and much more unstable climate. It’s adaptation time too.

The World Development Report 2010 brings home the urgent need for both decarbonization and adaptation planning. There is a new realism afoot in both the climate change science community and in the development community, brought about by mounting scientific observations of change but also some sobering numbers and projections.

There is, I would say, very little realistic probability of avoiding cumulative emissions that will force the climate system beyond 2°C—unless, of course, there is a significant breakthrough in Copenhagen on mitigation targets, beyond what is presently on the table, and immediate implementation of those targets.

China grew faster than its target and most projections in 2009 – what are the key takeaways?

Louis Kuijs's picture
Photo by John Hogg / World Bank本周,全球食品安全伙伴机制将在开普敦召开第三届年会。本次年会闭幕后,圣诞节假期即将到来,届时人们应会把食品安全问题抛之脑后。不安全食品给人口和整个经济造成了沉重代价,同时也被视为200多种疾病的首要致因。不过,安全食品无需是高档美食,这正是世界银行集团工作的动力所在。能够获得食品并不能保障食品安全。我们日益认识到食品安全如何对人口产生影响,尤其是对贫困人口的生活和生计的影响。这一认识不断加深的部分原因在于近年来在许多国家引发震动的食品恐慌。食品安全事件在世界各国均有发生——工业化国家和发展中国家以及大国和小国概不例外。今年四月,出席在美国召开的某食品安全会议的100多人因疑似食品中毒而出现病状。2011年,德国爆发由豆芽引发的大肠杆菌疫情,导致31人死亡。中国经历了多次重大食品污染事件,包括向奶制品中掺入三聚氰胺事件。

One year later: China’s policy stimulus results in strong 2009 economic growth, reason for optimism

Gao Xu's picture
Small-scale fishers in West Africa. Courtesy MRAG, Ltd.A colleague recently quizzed me on the extent to which our latest report—Trade in Fishing Services: Emerging Perspectives on Foreign Access Agreements—specifically addresses the World Bank’s goals of reducing poverty and sharing prosperity in developing countries. My brief answer was “comprehensively!”. Helping the poor and protecting the environment may not be the first things that pop into your mind when you think about foreign fishing access arrangements. However, when considered as international trade in fishing services, these arrangements do have the potential to deliver real benefits to the poorest people in developing countries. How? Well, let’s immediately dive deeper into the report…
 
Foreign access rarely receives good press. Although over half of the world’s exclusive economic zones are subject to some form of foreign fishing arrangement, there is a perception that industrialized nations are "giving with one hand while taking away with the other." Criticism abounds regarding the role that foreign fleets play in overexploiting coastal state fish stocks, in engaging in illegal and unreported activity, in contributing to conflicts with small-scale fisheries and in generally undermining domestic fishing interests in vulnerable developing economies.

Largest ever World Bank loan to Vietnam signals country's swift path to middle-income status

James I Davison's picture
Le 25 novembre 2014, la province canadienne de Québec et l'État américain de Californie ont tenu leur première vente aux enchères conjointe de quotas d'émission de CO2. Le Premier ministre du Québec évoque dans cette vidéo l'importance des processus de tarification du carbone en vue de construire une économie plus écologique.

In Thailand, finding the way back into growth: Step 1, switch the supply chains back on

Frederico Gil Sander's picture

اسمك سارة. تعيشين في نيويورك، أو ربما في نيروبي حيث تقسمين وقتك بين رعاية أسرتك الصغيرة وإقامة مشروع صغير. حياتك أكثر راحة من حياة أمك، ومستقبل أولادك أكثر إشراقا مما كنت تأملين. إلى أن يأتي يوم يستشيط فيه زوجك غضبا وغيرة ويضربك ضربا مبرحا.

وبعد قليل، يبدأ في مراقبة مكالماتك الهاتفية وتحركاتك، والتقليل من شأنك وإحداث كدمات بجسمك. أحيانا يعتذر، ويحدوك الأمل في أن تتحسن الأمور. لكن ما أن يعلم أنك تخططين لفتح حساب بنكي باسمك، يحرق لك متجرك- ليدمر سبيلك الوحيد إلى الاستقلال. إلى من تلجئين عندما تقول لك أسرتك والأصدقاء إنك محظوظة لأن لديك زوجا يعمل، بينما لا تقدم الشرطة ولا رجال الدين ولا الأجهزة القضائية أي ملاذ أو دعم لك؟ خياراتك قليلة وتنطوي على مخاطرة لك ولأطفالك.

China: Robust growth in sight provides room for shift in policy focus

Louis Kuijs's picture

The economic data for the third quarter of 2009, released almost two weeks ago, confirmed an impressive recovery in China’s economy, supported by very large fiscal and monetary stimulus. Real GDP growth rose to 8.9 percent year-on-year in the third quarter. This is clearly good news, for China and many other countries whose economies are benefiting at the moment from strong demand from China. As the World Bank economic team for China (which I'm part of) argues in more detail in the new China Quarterly Update, it also means that it is time to consider a less expansionary macroeconomic policy stance and focus more on the structural reforms needed to rebalance the economy and get more growth out of the domestic economy on a sustained basis.

It’s not as if China has not been hit by the global recession. China’s real economy has been hit hard. Exports fell sharply since November last year, and the contribution of net external trade to GDP growth was minus 3.6 percent points in the first three quarters of this year – with the negative contribution particularly large in the third quarter (in year-on-year terms).

Do not worry about inflation in China for now, worry about asset prices and quality

Louis Kuijs's picture



Of the 1.4 billion people living in extreme poverty, the vast majority resides in rural areas, relying on smallholder agriculture as a source of income and livelihood. Agricultural labor statistics are needed to study some of the most pressing issues in development:  how households earn income, the factors driving urbanization, the causes of un- and under-employment, the constraints to growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, and, in the big picture, understanding the potential for structural transformation. And, as climate change continues to impact smallholder farming outcomes, collecting quality data is even more important as we think ahead to interventions that promote climate-resilience for family farmers.

China's import surge: standard economic theory prevails

Louis Kuijs's picture

Laura Tuck, Vice President for the Europe and Central Asia region of the World Bank, discusses her recent trip to Albania, during which she had broad ranging discussions with the government and other partners on the country's growth and development.


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