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Conflict

Surprising Results from Fragile States

Joel Hellman's picture

If there is one thing that most of the donor community can believe in, it is this:  aid gets better results in countries with better governance.  The data linking aid effectiveness and governance go back to the work of David Dollar and Craig Burnside around 15 years ago.  And though there have been many challenges to the original findings, more recent studies by Aart Kray and colleagues on the World Bank’s (WB) own portfolio confirm that over the past 25 years, WB projects have performed better in countries with better governance.  But for most people, it’s not the data that convinces them of this simple, but powerful maxim; it’s just a matter of plain common sense.  Or is it?

Something strange and unexpected has happened to the WB’s portfolio in the last few years.  Since 2009, projects in fragile and conflict affected states (FCS) have out-performed projects in the rest of the portfolio as judged by both internal and independent evaluations. The share of “satisfactory or better” projects has been 5-10 percentage points higher in FCS versus non-FCS over a three year moving average.  Of course, a few years of volatile project performance data are not enough to challenge one of our most deeply held assumptions about aid performance.  But what is going on here?

Spoiler alert:  I don’t have the answer, just a lot of potential hypotheses.  Here are some that come to my mind.  You’ll undoubtedly have others.

Annual Meetings: Making Earth's Riches Work for Poor and Fragile Countries

Bassam Sebti's picture

At least 80% of countries considered fragile or affected by conflict are home to valuable extractive resources that the global economy hungers for. Earth’s riches like oil, gas, and minerals often fuel conflict, trapping all but the elites in poverty amid vast wealth.
 
A high-level panel of industry experts and representatives from CSOs and resource-rich nations weighed in today on the challenges that define poverty or prosperity in a fragile country.
 
Fragile states endowed with natural resources have the chance to benefit from their transformational impact, said Sri Mulyani Indrawati, managing director and chief operating officer of the World Bank Group. "Success can mean stability and development, and failure can mean aid dependency,” she said. 
 
Indrawati underscored the need to get things right — alluding to the recurrent discussion regarding the “resource curse.” “Our focus is on transparency, governance, and strengthening country capacity,” she said.
 
On transparency, panelist Clare Short, chair of the Extractives Industries Transparency Initiative, an international standard that ensures transparency around countries’ oil, gas and mineral resources, acknowledged that extractive resources “are very difficult to manage.”

Spillovers from the Syrian Crisis Stretching Lebanon to the Breaking Point

Eric Le Borgne's picture

Daily Star/Mohammad Azakir

The conflict in Syria, raging into its third year, is devastating the country’s population, economy, and infrastructure.  The impact on neighboring countries, while less visible in the media, is nonetheless real and growing rapidly. At the request of Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, the World Bank, in collaboration with the United Nations, the European Union, and the International Monetary Fund, undertook an Economic and Social Impact (ESIA) Assessment of the Syrian conflict on Lebanon. The report, available here, was presented to the newly formed   International Support Group to Lebanon (ISG) at its inaugural meeting on the sidelines of the recent United Nations General Assembly.

A New Deal for Somalia

Makhtar Diop's picture


Getting Somalia right has huge regional and global implications and attracted $2.4 billion in support at a recent development partners meeting in Brussels. 

Supporting fragile and conflict-affected countries to get back on a stable, hopeful development path is a key priority for me as Vice President for the World Bank’s Africa region. It is on my mind especially at the moment after being in Brussels several days ago to participate in the EU-hosted New Deal Conference on Somalia, and then visiting Bamako to pledge our support to Mali’s newly formed Government. As stated by the international community and many observers, the recent election of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita will open a new era of peace and reconstruction for Mali and we will be an active partner in this immense task.

The Brussels conference marks the anniversary of last year’s political transition and culminated in the endorsement of a “Compact” against which the international community pledged $2.4 billion through 2016. The conference, hosted by the EU and the Government of Somalia led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, not only helped consolidate international political support for Somalia but also generated considerable momentum for the country’s development plans and a path to international debt relief.

A School Called Uruguay: Managing the Syrian Crisis while Investing in Long-Term Development

Simon Thacker's picture

It was once located on the grounds of the Uruguayan Embassy in Lebanon, and the name has somehow stuck. Now, Uruguay Elementary School is in a new building in an altogether different, bustling area of Beirut. It is hard to recognize it as a school at first: a seven-story building among other tall offices and manufacturing plants beside a major thoroughfare.

Video: Back to School 2013

Mourad Ezzine's picture

With newspaper headlines focused on violence and political upheavals across the Middle East and North Africa region, it is easy to forget that an annual beginning is also underway. Children from the Mashreq to the Maghreb have started going back to school. Parents are buying school supplies for little ones and millions of teenagers are going down a path that may shape their future careers. This week, Voices and Views presents Back to School 2013 - a series focused on the challenges that both teachers and students face in the region, and the policies and programs that can change a generation.

World Bank Group President Jim Kim: Inside the G20

Jim Yong Kim's picture

The Group of 20 leaders met for an intense 24-hour period over two days, discussing the situation in Syria and the global economy. Watch this video blog to hear what World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim thought shouldn't be forgotten in these important discussions.


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