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Financial Sector

Stalled productivity, stagnant economy: Chronic stress amid impaired growth

Christopher Colford's picture

Call it “secular stagnation,” or the disappointing “New Mediocre,” or the baffling “New Normal” – or even the back-from-the-brink “contained depression.” Whatever label you put on today’s chronic economic doldrums, it’s clear that a slow-growth stall is afflicting many nation’s economies – and, seven years into a lackluster recovery from the global financial crisis, some fragile economies seem to be lapsing into another slump.

As policymakers struggle to find a plausible prescription for jump-starting growth, a tug-of-war is under way between techno-utopians and techno-dystopians. It’s a struggle between optimists who foresee a world of abundance thanks to innovations like robot-driven industries, and pessimists who anticipate a cash-deprived world where displaced ex-workers have few or no means of earning an income.

To add a bracing dose of academic rigor to the tech-focused tug-of-war, along comes a data-focused realist who adds a welcome if sobering historical perspective to the debate. Robert J. Gordon, a macroeconomist and economic historian at Northwestern University, takes a longue durée perspective of technology’s impact on growth, wealth and incomes.

Gordon’s blunt-spoken viewpoint has caused a sensation since his newest book, “The Rise and Fall of American Growth,” was launched at this winter’s meetings of the American Economic Association. His analysis injects a new urgency into policymakers’ debates about how (or even whether) today’s growth rate can be strengthened.

When Gordon speaks at the World Bank on Thursday, March 31 – at 11 a.m. in J B1-080, as part of the Macrofiscal Seminar Series – economy-watchers can look forward to hearing some ideas that challenge the orthodoxies of recent macroeconomic thinking. His topic – “Secular Stagnation on the Supply Side: Slow Growth in U. S. Productivity and Potential Output” – seems likely to spark some new thinking among techno-utopians and techo-dystopians alike.

To watch Gordon’s speech live via Webex – at 11 a.m. on Thursday, March 31 – click here. To dial in to listen to the audio, dial (in the United States and Canada) 1-650-479-3207, using the passcode 735 669 472. For those telephoning from outside the United States and Canada, the appropriate numbers can be found on this page.

Psychometrics as a tool to improve screening and access to credit

Miriam Bruhn's picture

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) often face financial constraints because they lack audited statements and other information about their operations, and as a result, financial institutions have difficulties assessing the risk of lending to them. Studies have shown that information sharing, credit bureaus, and credit scoring can increasing credit to SMEs, but not all countries have well-developed credit bureaus that gather the level of information needed to build a reliable credit-scoring model. For example, the average credit bureau in Latin America and the Caribbean complies with only half of best practices and covers only 40.5 percent of the adult population (Doing Business Report 2016).

Helping Mongolians become savvier in managing their personal finances

Siegfried Zottel's picture



Did you know that low-income Mongolians are better at managing daily finances than higher income earners, although those with better incomes are more likely to make provisions for the future?

These were the findings of a comprehensive demand-side assessment on financial capability in Mongolia which the World Bank Group carried out in 2013.

These findings make sense.  Poor people – those with low and irregular incomes – devote a lot of time to thinking about how to stretch their money to put food on the table while being able to cover other daily spending needs.  They tend to have surprisingly sophisticated financial lives despite having limited income, the Portfolios of the Poor found. 

Latin America: Is There Hope for Prosperity After the Commodity Price Boom?

Katia Vostroknutova's picture

This blog was previously published in The World Post.

Talk about ‘growth’ in Latin America has become less upbeat today than a few years ago. That’s no surprise. For over a decade, average growth meant at least double the economic activity that we are seeing today. 

Make in India: Which exports can drive the next wave of growth?

Saurabh Mishra's picture
Structural transformation depends not only on how much countries export but also on what they export and with whom they trade. In my new IMF working paper with Rahul Anand and Kalpana Kochhar, we break new grounds in analyzing India’s exports by the technological content, quality, sophistication, and complexity of India’s export basket. The paper can be found here. Here are few key pieces of evidence from our paper:
 
Technological content of India’s exports   

The evolution of Indian exports has not followed a “textbook” pattern. The pattern of evolution points to a dichotomy in the Indian economy – a well integrated, technologically advanced services sector and a relatively lagging manufacturing sector. The share of service exports in total exports has grown to over 32 percent in 2013 from 28 percent in 2000. On the other hand, the share of manufacturing exports in total export has declined to 67 percent from nearly 80 percent during 1990-2013.
 
The growth in service exports has been more rapid, resulting in the share of services exports in total exports to increase rapidly over the last decade. This can be explained by technological changes. Many services do not require face-to-face interaction, and can be stored and traded digitally. These services are called modern services. Modern services are the fastest growing sector of the global economy. This is particularly evident in India, where modern services exports account for nearly 70 percent of the total commercial services exports (compared to around 35 percent in EMs) (see Figure 1). 
      
Figure 1. Rapid Growth in Modern Services from India

What’s the connection between financial development, volatility, and growth?

Francisco G. Carneiro's picture
Understanding macroeconomic volatility part 3
Read parts 1 & 2


There’s good evidence that a country’s level of financial development affects the impact of volatility on economic growth, particularly so in less developed countries, as the charts below demonstrate
 

A fresh look at the global financial crisis and poverty trends in the EU

Doerte Doemeland's picture


When development practitioners such as ourselves think of poverty, the EU is not what comes to mind first. While it is true that average incomes are higher in Europe than in most regions of the world, it is also true that the 2008 global financial crisis had a huge impact on the welfare of the most vulnerable in many countries in the region.

Handling volatile capital flows--the Indian experience

Poonam Gupta's picture
Capital flows to emerging economies are considered to be volatile. Influenced as much by global liquidity and risk aversion as by economic conditions in receiving countries, capital flows move in a synchronous fashion across emerging economies. There are periods of rapid capital inflows, fueling credit booms and asset price inflation; followed by reversals when exchange rates depreciate, equity prices decline, financial volatility increases, and GDP growth and investment slows down. These periods of extreme flows have unintended financial and real implications for the recipient countries.

Financial inclusion of women in five charts

Nina Vucenik's picture

Languages: EspañolFrançais,  عربي


One billion women – more than 40% of the women around the world – don’t have access to formal financial services, according to Global Findex.

The gender finance gap remains at 9% in developing countries, although in some parts of the world it is much higher, according to the 2014 Global Findex data.

Women are 20% less likely than men to have a bank account and 17% less likely to have borrowed money formally.

How financially included are women in the world?


Focusing on Universal Financial Access by 2020 in 25 Countries

To reach financial inclusion, the World Bank Group and partners are focusing on 25 countries where 73% of all financially excluded people live, under the Universal Financial Access by 2020 initiative.

The UFA2020 goal is to enable access for all adults, women and men alike, to a transaction account through which they can access other financial services -- such as savings, credit or insurance -- that can help improve the quality of their lives.



The following 4 charts explain how financially included women are in those 25 countries, according to Findex data.


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