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Financial Sector

Improving Pakistan’s public and private investment

Muhammad Waheed's picture
Pakistan is not investing enough and its share of investment to GDP is one of the lowest in the world at 15 percent almost half of the South Asian average at 30 percent. This translates into inadequate infrastructure, lack of access to sufficient levels of energy and water, poor quality of schools and hospitals. Photo: World Bank

This blog is part of a series that discusses findings from the [email protected]: Shaping the Future report, which identifies the changes necessary for Pakistan to become a strong upper middle-income country by the time it turns 100 years old in 2047. 

Pakistan’s economy is unable to sustain high growth rates for extended periods. Every few years, the economy is faced with a balance of payments crisis as it tries to grow fast.

This is unlike many other successful peer countries that are growing at higher rates for a longer time.

This inability to sustain growth momentum has dented Pakistan’s ambitions to become a middle-income country. What is the reason for this boom and bust cycle that Pakistan experiences so often?
 
The fundamental cause for these short-lived growth cycles in Pakistan is that these are propelled by private and government consumption, not by higher investment.

Resultantly, the country’s demand increases at a much higher pace than its supply of goods and services, prompting a need for higher imports which becomes unsustainable.

Successive governments have tried to notch up growth in this way, but all of them have ended with a balance of payments crisis.
 
Pakistan is not investing enough and its share of investment to GDP is one of the lowest in the world at 15 percent , almost half of the South Asian average at 30 percent. This translates into inadequate infrastructure, lack of access to sufficient levels of energy and water, poor quality of schools and hospitals.
 
More worryingly, private investment as a share of GDP has been declining and stands at less than 10pc in FY18. This low investment trap and declining labor productivity have reduced Pakistan’s growth potential.
 
The decline in the economy’s growth potential is particularly concerning because it suggests that the country will not be able to grow at higher rates required for job creation. To correct this Pakistan needs to undertake several reforms in multiple areas to increase labor productivity and capital formation.
 
The foremost priority is that Pakistan must maintain macroeconomic stability. Persistent macroeconomic instability has discouraged savings and private investment in the country resulting in low-aggregate investment and fluctuating output levels.

How digital remittances can help drive sustainable development

Marco Nicoli's picture
 Sarah Farhat/The World Bank
The Plateau area, business and administrative center of Dakar.
Photo: Sarah Farhat/The World Bank

More people in the world have access to financial accounts and tools than ever before. With this access, new products and services are being developed to facilitate convenient usage of these accounts. Taking this a step further, healthy financial inclusion incorporates customers’ ability to balance income and expenses, build and maintain reserves, and to manage and recover from financial shocks using a range of financial tools. The most useful financial services are those that provide customers with convenience, and support resilience through enhanced ability to weather shocks and pursue financial goals; effectively supporting the financial health of the user.

Remittances are an essential source of income for millions of families, many of whom are low income. Global migration is increasing - over 258 million people currently live outside their country of birth, up from 173 million in the year 2000 – and is trailed by a steady stream of transactions. The remittances industry moves over $600 billion around the world, with $466 billion being sent to low-and-middle income countries. As the first financial product used by many lower income people, remittances often act as a stepping stone to accessing a menu of financial services; as such, they are a cornerstone of financial health.

Paying for development – Governments are sitting on a ‘goldmine’

Marco Scuriatti's picture
Shanghai at night, Huangpu River.  © Wu Zhiyi/World Bank
Shanghai at night, Huangpu River.  © Wu Zhiyi/World Bank

Four years have passed since the launch of the 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Mobilizing the necessary resources remains central to its success. Investments in human, social, and physical capital are at the core of sustainable and inclusive growth – and represent an important share of national budgets.

At the World Bank Group we have been at the forefront of the so-called Financing for Development (FfD) agenda to leverage public, private, international, and domestic sources of capital to help reach the global goals.  A short primer on our efforts--which builds on the 2015 Development Committee paper Billions to Trillions - Transforming Development Finance--can be found in the brochure entitled Financing for Development at the World Bank Group.

Ultimately, countries own the responsibility for achieving the SDGs: raising more domestic revenue (and doing so more efficiently), addressing spending inefficiencies, and mobilizing private capital (as the world economy is facing potentially slower growth and political friction). These will not be easy challenges.  

Make internet affordable in Africa, and the skills will soon follow

Olansis Mulugeta Wolde's picture



Since the beginning of the Digital Revolution, people have been wondering about digitization of the workplace and how it relates to production and employment. Although a significant number of people want to box the idea of digitizing workplaces into waging war on blue collar jobs, the reality couldn’t be far from that argument.

What’s behind South Asia’s low exports?

Hans Timmer's picture
South Asian countries’ exports are only one-third of what they should be, had they mirrored the experience of economies with similar characteristics. Without further integration into global markets, South Asia will not sustain its growth. Photo: Shutterstock 

This blog highlights the findings from the recent South Asia Economic Focus: Exports Wanted

Bela Balassa worked for the World Bank from 1966 till his death in 1991. Luckily, his insights on international integration, revealed comparative advantages, trade diversion, and natural progress toward political integration have outlived him.

And what Bela is best-known for—and rightfully so—is the Balassa-Samuelson effect.

Put simply, this effect explains why a haircut or a restaurant meal is much cheaper in poor countries than in rich countries whereas the price tag for a car or a television is almost the same everywhere.

What’s behind this phenomenon is simple and can be summed up in three parts.

First, international competition equalizes the price of tradable goods like televisions across countries.

Second, the prices of non-tradable goods like haircuts can differ.

And third, the difference in productivity across countries is much more significant in tradable goods than in non-tradable goods. For example, a barber in Dhaka needs roughly the same amount of time as a barber in New York to cut my hair.

But manufacturers or farmers in Nepal need more labor to produce the same output than their counterparts in Germany.

Countries tend to be poor because their level of productivity in tradable goods is low.  

Should women get a job? “Yes...but” say Pakistani men

Saman Amir's picture
A large number of Pakistani women waiting to get relief money for her own business work at Lahore, Pakistan.
Pakistani women in Lahore, Pakistan. Photo: A M Syed, Shutterstock

 
This blog is part of a series examining women’s economic empowerment in South Asia.

In patriarchal societies—as in most of Pakistan—men exert much influence over the lives of their female relatives and almost always have exclusive control over household income.
 
Having a supportive father or husband is therefore critical for women and determines their choices and work opportunities, especially outside the home.

Conversely, men reluctant to see women in the workplace can derail progress toward greater participation of women in the labor force.
 
As part of the Women in the Workforce study, we interviewed a purposively selected group of men in Karachi, Lahore, Quetta, and Peshawar on their thoughts on women’s work outside the home.[1]
 
Despite the constraints of a purposive sampling technique, a few broad themes emerged from these interviews that can be relevant to anyone advocating for women’s economic empowerment.
 
As anywhere in the world, men’s attitudes toward women’s work were varied. 
 
Some men we spoke to expressed support for women’s work for economic gain.
 
The most common reason was the urgent need for a double income to maintain the household’s living standards in a fast-changing economy.

Financial inclusion in Europe and Central Asia — the way forward?

Asli Demirgüç-Kunt's picture

If you are unbanked there is a high likelihood you are living on the edge of poverty, exclusion and vulnerability. If you struggle to attain or maintain a secure, well-paying job, you probably do not have a bank account or access to financial services. You are completely reliant on cash, which is unsafe and hard to manage. And, should you or a family member experience a serious illness or another unexpected financial burden, you could quickly fall deeper into poverty and despair.

Unfortunately, this is the reality for millions of people in the developing countries of Europe and Central Asia. As recently as 2017, around 116 million adults in the region still had no bank account. And almost 60% of the unbanked in the region are women. In today’s highly globalized, technology-driven world, it is a stark reminder that we have a long way to go to ensuring greater inclusion and opportunities for all.

Shaping a brighter future for Pakistan

Illango Patchamuthu's picture
Pakistan needs to think big on investing in its people
Pakistani girls attending a primary school. Photo: World Bank
This blog is part of a series that discusses findings from the [email protected]: Shaping the Future report, which identifies the changes necessary for Pakistan to become a strong upper middle-income country by the time it turns 100 years old in 2047. 
 
In 28 years, Pakistan will turn 100 years old. The children born this year will be adults then.

I wonder what they will see when they look around. Will they see a country teeming with opportunity? Or will they be in a country that does not offer enough jobs and does not provide the needed skills to compete?

Some of them may well be new parents at 28. Will they be able to look at their own children, and see a brighter future for them?

Pakistan has some important decisions to make if it wants to give its children the future they deserve.

If the country can make the right decisions now, Pakistan can accelerate and sustain growth to become a confident upper middle-income by the time it turns 100. It’s ambitious but possible.

Other countries –South Korea, China, and Malaysia – have transformed their economies within a generation, and there is no reason why Pakistan cannot achieve the same.

The alternative is not inspiring. If the country fails to accelerate and sustain growth as well as control population growth, by 2047 income levels will be close to where they are today and with challenges similar to what they are today.

I like to imagine another Pakistan, in which stunting and malnutrition are gone, in which family background does not determine what job you can get, women compete equally with men, businesses thrive, and Pakistan competes with the likes of Shanghai or Singapore as a trading hub.

Last month we launched a report, [email protected]: Shaping the Future, which looks at some of the reforms needed to accelerate and sustain growth and transform Pakistan’s economy.

Now is the time to come together and see what needs to be done to achieve this goal. A growth narrative for Pakistan needs to rest on these four elements: investing in people; using resources more efficiently; caring for the environment; and finally, improving how Pakistan is run to support growth and the implementation of difficult reforms.

Pakistan needs to think big on investing in its people.

In Bangladesh, new latrines meet a tested business model

Shilpa Banerji's picture
Shamila Hakim outside her home in Gazipur district's Shinglab village, Dhaka
Shamela Hakeem outside her home in Gazipur district's Shinglab village, Dhaka. Photo: World Bank

In a tiny hamlet called Shinglab in Gazipur district, around 2 hours from Dhaka, you can see a cluster of homes made of varying materials depending on the household income.

Shamela Hakeem, 40, lives in a functional mud hut with a tin roof. A widow with no children, she makes around BDT 300 ($3.50) daily as a sweeper at a local factory.

Last year, she decided to upgrade her sanitation facilities and purchased a BDT 10,000 ($118) toilet from a local entrepreneur. She is due to pay off her final installment within the next month.

But why did she decide to invest in a toilet?
                                                                                                                                                                                      
A three-way street

Bangladesh has nearly eliminated the practice of open defecation, but many latrines are poorly constructed and unhygienic, which can be harm­ful to the environment and the user.

Only 32 percent of the rural population have access to a safely managed sanitation service.  The government is helping rural households shift to better sanitation. However, many poor rural households are often discouraged by the upfront cost.

The country also has a history of micro-finance institutions (MFIs) who have effectively worked with rural households. But MFIs have had little experience in investing in non-productive assets such as toilets.

In 2016, a $3 million World Bank grant helped scale up MFIs lending for improved rural sanitation in Bangladesh. An additional $23.7 million in seed money was mobilized from MFIs for the installation of latrines.

Small-scale sanitation entrepreneurs received technical assistance to build good quality, affordable models of hygienic latrines for low-income households. Finally, an agreement was reached with the Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) to work with retail MFIs and local entrepreneurs (LEs).

Interest-free loans were extended to households using their own capital ($22) of PKSF and their MFI partners plus business loans to entrepreneurs with market rate interest. Across 42 districts, household borrowers could choose from a range of standard design ‘set price’ latrines installed by LEs. Another arrangement was reached between MFIs, LEs, and customers who accessed the sanitation loan from MFIs and placed an order with LEs to construct the latrine.

Households could pay off the loan over a period of 50 weeks without interest. “We started off with 143 latrines in 2017, but now the market is more developed, and entrepreneurs are motivated,” said Gazi Md. Salahuddin, general manager of Resource Integration Centre, an MFI based in Narayanganj district.

Robo-advisors: Investing through machines

Facundo Abraham's picture

Technological innovation in the financial industry has reached the wealth management services industry where automated financial advisors, known as robo-advisors, are starting to compete with human advisors. In a new policy brief, we examine the benefits and limitations of robo-advisors, as well as their potential to foster financial inclusion.


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