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Financial Sector

FDI in Southern Africa: Microeconomic Consequences and Macro Causes

Foreign direct investment (FDI) can theoretically reduce income gaps between developing and advanced economies. In a neoclassical world, with perfect capital mobility and technology transfer, capital readily flows from rich to poor countries, seeking higher returns in capital-scarce economies. The real world differs starkly from the theory.

Even though southern African countries (the Southern African Development Community, SADC hereafter) are poor on average, per capita FDI inflows are a meager 36.6 U.S. dollars per year (in 2000 value), which is about 18 percent of average per capita FDI in non-SADC countries and 58 percent of the average level for similar-income economies. Moreover, within SADC, country differences are huge: FDI per capita ranges from single digits (Malawi, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Tanzania) to 10-30 dollars (Mozambique, Zambia, Mauritania, and Swaziland), to 50 to 100 dollars (Lesotho, South Africa, and Angola), and to 167 dollars in the outlier in this region, middle-income Botswana. And even within this region there is a positive relationship between average income and FDI per capita, a pattern that holds for the world as a whole. Thus, any hope of relying on FDI as a supply-side remedy to catapult poor countries onto a development fast track is not likely to materialize soon.

The Day After Tomorrow: Growth Switchover

Otaviano Canuto's picture

It is becoming common wisdom that developing countries are doing well while the rich world is stuck in long-overdue austerity. Barring another subprime crisis (this time, in public debt), the locomotives of global growth are about to “switch over.” How come? Will this hold?

Innovation in Africa

Rachel Payne's picture

"BRAC is built upon a foundation of innovation that is driven by an integrated approach to development and broad participation of its members... the BRAC model of innovation for the social good should be considered a new industry standard."

How Strong is LAC’s China Connection?

Carlos Molina's picture

Authors: Emily Sinnott & John Nash

 

For Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC), there has been a substantial shift from exporting commodities to advanced economies to trading instead with emerging economies. China, in particular, has become an important destination market, with its share of commodity exports having grown tenfold since 1990 (from 0.8 percent in 1990 to 10 percent of total commodity exports in 2008).

 

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In our report on “Natural Resources in Latin America and the Caribbean: Beyond Booms and Busts?” we argue that one advantage of these changing trade patterns has been the important role that China’s demand for commodities played in the region’s economic rebound from the global crisis. While we are not alone in this view (see the CEPAL report on the drivers of the LAC recovery launched on September 2, 2010), there has been some anxiety in LAC that the region is going down the path of increased dependence on exports of raw materials with little value-added, while at the same time increasing its reliance on manufacturing imports from China.

Financial Access and the Crisis: Where Do We Stand?

Asli Demirgüç-Kunt's picture

Do you wonder how the recent global crisis affected access to financial services? Well I do, and a report by the World Bank Group and CGAP just provided the answer: Data show that even as countries were suffering because of the financial crisis, access to formal financial services grew in 2009.  Indeed, the number of bank accounts grew world-wide, while at the same time the volume of loans and deposit accounts dropped. The physical outreach of financial systems— consisting of branch networks, automated teller machines (ATMs), and point-of-sale (POS) terminals—all expanded.

That’s a relief. Readers of this blog know by now that I am a strong believer in expanding access. Lack of access to finance is often the critical element underlying persistent income inequality as well as slower growth. But the recent global financial crisis has led us to question many of our beliefs and re-opened old debates. It also exposed an important tension between access and stability. Were we wrong to emphasize access in the light of what happened?

Prospects Daily: US initial claims decline, trade deficit narrows sharply in July

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Important developments today:

1.  Emerging market equities rebound as European debt concern ease

2.  U.S. initial claims decline

 

 


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