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Trade

Impacts on Global Trade and Income of Current Trade Disputes

Caroline Freund's picture

Much has been written on the escalation of the trade dispute. What hasn’t been discussed is what will be the impact on developing nations who rely on trade as an engine of economic growth for ending poverty.  

As tariffs are beginning to be imposed, my team analyzed the impact of these new tariffs and the potential for tariff escalation in developing countries in a new World Bank working document. We found that the new trade tariffs will depress bilateral trade, disrupt global supply chains, and increase demand for substitutes from developing countries.  
 

Photo Source: Avigator Fortuner, Shutterstock

How can Indonesia achieve a more sustainable transport system?

Tomás Herrero Diez's picture
Photo: UN Women/Flickr
Indonesia, a vast archipelago of more than 17,500 islands, is the fourth most populous country in the world, with 261 million inhabitants, and the largest economy in Southeast Asia, with a nominal Gross Domestic Product of $933 billion.

Central government spending on transport increased by threefold between 2010-2016. This has enabled the country to extend its transport network capacity and improve access to some of the most remote areas across the archipelago.

The country has a road network of about 538,000 km, of which about 47,000 km are national roads, and 1,000 km are expressways. Heavy congestion and low traffic speeds translate into excessively long journey times. In fact, traveling a mere 100 km can take 2.5 to 4 hours. The country relies heavily on waterborne transport and has about 1,500 ports, with most facilities approaching their capacity limits, especially in Eastern Indonesia. Connectivity between ports and land infrastructure is limited or non-existent. The rail network is limited (6,500 km across the islands of Java and Sumatra) and poorly maintained. The country’s 39 international and 191 domestic airports mainly provide passenger services, and many are also reaching their capacity limits.

Exposure of Belt & Road Economies to China Trade Shocks

Paulo Bastos's picture
The Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative seeks to deepen regional integration by improving infrastructure and strengthening trade and investment linkages along the old Silk Road, from China to Europe. With several infrastructure projects already ongoing, the initiative is expected to progressively reduce trade costs over the coming decades, and hence generate long-run economic gains for B&R economies.
 
Photo: Rob Beechey / World Bank

Face to face with William Maloney, Chief Economist, Equitable Finance and Institutions

Nandita Roy's picture

Returns on technological adoption are thought to be extremely high, yet developing countries appear to invest little, implying that this critical channel of productivity growth is underexploited. A recent World Bank study – The Innovation Paradox: Developing-Country Capabilities and the Unrealized Promise of Technological Catch-Up – sheds light on how to address this paradox. In this interview, William Maloney Chief Economist, Equitable Finance and Institutions Practice Group, World Bank Group, calls upon developing country public and private-sector leaders to pursue a more focused approach to innovation policy.



What is the new study Innovation Paradox all about?

The potential gains from bringing existing technologies to developing countries are vast, much higher for poor countries than for rich countries. Yet developing-country firms and governments invest relatively little to realize this potential. That’s the origin of what we are calling ‘The Innovation Paradox’.

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Why do firms in developing countries lag behind when it comes to innovation?

The Innovation Paradox, argues that developing country firms choose not to invest heavily in adopting technology, even if they are keen to do so, because they face a range of constraints that prevent them from benefitting from the transfer.

Developing country firms are often constrained by low managerial capability, find it difficult to import the necessary technology, to contract or hire trained workers and engineers, or draw on the new organizational techniques needed to maximize the potential of innovation. Moreover, they are often inhibited by a weak business climate. For example, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are constantly in a situation where they are putting out fires, they don’t have a five-year plan, they don’t have somebody keeping track of what new technology has come out of some place that they could bring to the firm.

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How can developing economies catch up with the developed world on innovation?

The rates of return to investments and innovation of various kinds appear to be extremely high, yet we see a much smaller effort in these areas.  In the developing countries, we need to think not only about barriers to accumulating knowledge capital, we have to think about all the barriers to accumulating all of the complementary factors—the physical capital. So, if I have a lousy education system, it doesn’t matter if I get a high-tech firm because there won’t be any workers to staff it.

Innovation requires competitive and undistorted economies, adequate levels of human capital, functioning capital markets, a dynamic and capable business sector, reliable regulation and property rights. Richer countries tend to have more of these conditions. This is at the root of Paradox. Even though follower countries have much to gain from adopting existing technologies from the advanced countries, in practice, missing and distorted markets, weak management capabilities and human capital prevent them from taking advantage of these opportunities.

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The challenges of macroeconomic stabilization in the Southern African Customs Union

Sébastien Dessus's picture



The good governance of public financial resources is often more challenging during good times than during bad times. In the event of an unexpected negative shock – say a drought or a sudden decline in demand for the commodities produced in the country – it is generally rewarding, from a political perspective, for the government to launch ‘stimulus packages’ to keep the economic engine running.

Applications open for third round of funding for collaborative data innovation projects

World Bank Data Team's picture
Photo Credit: The Crowd and The Cloud


The Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data and the World Bank Development Data Group are pleased to announce that applications are now open for a third round of support for innovative collaborations for data production, dissemination, and use. This follows two previous rounds of funding awarded in 2017 and earlier in 2018.

This initiative is supported by the World Bank’s Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCB) with financing from the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID), the Government of Korea and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Ireland.

Scaling local data and synergies with official statistics

The themes for this year’s call for proposals are scaling local data for impact, which aims to target innovations that have an established proof of concept which benefits local decision-making, and fostering synergies between the communities of non-official data and official statistics, which looks for collaborations that take advantage of the relative strengths and responsibilities of official (i.e. governmental) and non-official (e.g.,private sector, civil society, social enterprises and academia) actors in the data ecosystem.

Agriculture is the ‘green gold’ that could transform the economy and the lives of Ugandan farmers

Christina Malmberg Calvo's picture



Agriculture is Uganda’s ‘green gold’ that can transform the economy and the lives of farmers.  Why is it then that Uganda’s well documented agricultural potential is not realized? What specific public-sector policies and actions are required to unleash the entrepreneurial energy of Uganda’s largest private sector actors—its farmers?

Leaving no one behind in development: a roadmap for disability inclusion

Maninder Gill's picture
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More than one billion people globally – about 15% of the world’s population – are estimated to have a disability. Most of them live in developing countries. This number is expected to increase as aging, war and conflict, natural disasters, forced displacement, and other factors continue to affect the prevalence of disability.

Persons with disabilities face higher rates of poverty compared with persons without disabilities. They encounter attitudinal and environmental barriers that hinder their full and effective participation in society on an equal basis with others. Persons with disabilities’ lower rates of economic and labor market participation also impose a higher welfare burden on governments.

The global development and poverty reduction agenda will not be effective unless it addresses the socioeconomic inequality of persons with disabilities and ensures their participation in all stages of development programs. With a focus on social inclusion, disability-inclusive development is directly responsive to the World Bank’s twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity.

Disability Inclusion and Accountability Framework

Over the last several years, the World Bank has accelerated its support for disability-inclusive development with significant strides in operations and analytical work.

This has culminated in World Bank’s first Disability Inclusion and Accountability Framework, which offers a roadmap for:
  1. Including disability in the World Bank’s policies, operations, and analytical work; and
  2. Building internal capacity for supporting clients in implementing disability-inclusive development programs.
The Framework is also relevant to policymakers, government officials, other development organizations, and persons with disabilities.

The Framework has been launched today on the occasion of the 11th Conference of States Parties to the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities at the United Nations, the premier international gathering of governments, development practitioners, and civil society working on disability inclusion.

How will the Framework support development work?

The Framework provides four main principles for guiding the World Bank’s engagement with persons with disabilities:
  • Nondiscrimination and equality
  • Accessibility
  • Inclusion and participation
  • Partnership and collaboration

The appendices to this Framework highlight key areas of engagement for a significant impact on the inclusion, empowerment, and full participation of persons with disabilities.

These areas include transport, urban development, disaster risk management, education, social protection, jobs and employment, information and communication technology, water sector operations, and health care.

The Framework is a living document that will be reviewed periodically and strengthened with new focus areas and evidence to reflect ongoing developments.

We invite you to download the Disability Inclusion and Accountability Framework. We hope you find it useful for your work to build inclusive, resilient, and sustainable cities and communities for all.

Six ways Sri Lanka can attract more foreign investments

Tatiana Nenova's picture
In 2017, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Sri Lanka grew to over $1,710 billion. But Sri Lanka still has ways to go to attract more FDI.
In 2017, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Sri Lanka grew to over $1,710 billion. But Sri Lanka still has ways to go to attract more FDI. Credit: Shutterstock 


To facilitate Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Sri Lanka launched last week an innovative online one-stop shop to help investors obtain all official approvals. To mark the occasion, this blog series explores different aspects of FDI in Sri Lanka. Part 1 put forth 5 Reasons Why Sri Lanka Needs FDI. Part 3 will relate how the World Bank is helping to improve Sri Lanka’s enabling environment for FDI.

Sri Lanka and foreign investments read a bit like a hit and miss story.

But it was not always the case.

Before 1983, companies like Motorola and Harris Corporation had plans to establish plants in Sri Lanka’s export processing zones. Others including Marubeni, Sony, Sanyo, Bank of Tokyo and Chase Manhattan Bank, had investments in Sri Lanka in the pipeline in the early 1980s.

All this changed when the war convulsed the country and derailed its growth. Companies left and took their foreign direct investments (FDI) with them.

Nearly a decade after the civil conflict ended in 2009, Sri Lanka is now in a very different place.

In 2017, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Sri Lanka grew to over $1,710 billion including foreign loans received by companies registered with the BOI, more than doubling from the $801 million achieved the previous year.

But Sri Lanka still has ways to go to attract more FDI.
 
As a percentage of GDP, FDI currently stands at a mere 2 percent and lags behind Malaysia at 3 – 4 percent and Vietnam at 5 – 6 percent.

Privacy law and services trade: Resolving the conflict

Aaditya Mattoo's picture

The EU’s new General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) recently went into effect. You have probably received emails regarding your data resident on email servers and applications. And while the media focus has also remained on data concerns with Facebook and other personal data, the impact of the GDPR on developing countries has received little attention.  Their exports of data-based services rely on the free flow of data across borders. Strengthened regulation can make international data transfers more difficult. And traditional trade rules and regulatory cooperation cannot resolve this conflict.


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