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January 2019

What do public officials know? Why do some know more than others?

Daniel Rogger's picture

Many people working in development hope to `inform’ public officials.  For example, academic research or the Bank’s own analytical studies often conclude with `policy recommendations’ to be taken on by individuals in charge of translating policies into practice, or public administrators.  Yet what is the baseline level of knowledge of public officials that this work is building on?  What do they already know and not know?
 
We investigated this question in Ethiopia by surveying a representative sample of 1,831 public officials across 382 organizations spanning all three tiers of government. We compared their estimates of key characteristics of their constituents to objective administrative and survey data to create a direct test of their knowledge.  How did they do?
 
We start our blog with a quiz to you, the reader, to assess your priors on the accuracy of public officials in guessing the key characteristics of the local citizens that they serve. 

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Energy prices fell 15 percent in December–Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices plunged more than 11 percent in December, led by oil (-13 percent), the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Non-energy prices fell marginally as losses in beverages, fertilizers, and metals were balanced by gains in food and precious metals.

Agricultural prices gained less than one percent—a 3.5 percent decline in the beverage price index was offset by a 3.5 percent gain of the food price index in response to grain price increases.

Oral democracy

Vijayendra Rao's picture

The challenges of electoral democracy are becoming increasingly visible worldwide. Elite capture, corruption and patronage are serious concerns, and the legitimacy of some elections has come under critical scrutiny. This has led to a revival of the idea of direct democracy – giving power directly to groups of people to make collective decisions.



The Global Economic Outlook: Darkening Skies

Carlos Arteta's picture

Download the January 2019 Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth sputtered in 2018 amid weakening trade and manufacturing, tighter financing conditions, and elevated policy uncertainties. 

Growth decelerated in almost 80 percent of advanced economies and in nearly half of emerging market and developing economies in 2018. This year, it is expected to slow further in a majority of advanced economies and in about a third of emerging market and developing economies. 

In all, global growth is predicted to moderate from 3.0 in 2018 to 2.9 percent in 2019 and an average of 2.8 percent in 2020-21, below previous forecasts. 

Risks of even slower-than-expected growth have become more acute. Financial market pressures and trade tensions could escalate, denting confidence and further setting back growth prospects in emerging market and developing countries. 

Here is a look at global economic prospects in five figures:

1. Global growth is moderating as trade and manufacturing lose momentum. The deceleration in global activity was more pronounced than previously expected in 2018, as reflected in softening export orders and industrial production growth. The slowdown in global trade came against the backdrop of ongoing trade tensions involving major economies. A. Global industrial production andnew export orders

A. Global industrial production and new export orders

New year’s resolutions

Pinelopi Goldberg's picture
  1. Travel no more than once per month.
  2. Despite number one above, participate in a World Bank mission to see how it really works.
  3. Despite numbers one and two above, get to Africa. It is a shame I have not been there yet.
  4. Master the WBG (World Bank Group) acronyms.
  5. Attend at least one seminar per week.
  6. Dedicate one day per week to research.
  7. Explain to the world why the global growth projections of the WB and IMF sometimes differ.
  8. Despite all of the above, continue to get my eight hours a night of sleep.