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Burning bright or burned out? The outlook for coal and natural gas markets

Peter Nagle's picture

This blog is the third in a series of ten blogs on commodity market developments, elaborating on themes discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook. Earlier blogs can be found here.
 
Recent developments and outlook: coal

Coal prices rose 12 percent in the third quarter—the fifth straight quarterly increase—and are up 23 percent relative to the same quarter of 2017. Weather patterns in Asia and Europe have been the main drivers of the rise in prices. Low winter temperatures at the start of the year raised demand for fuel for heating, while unusually hot summer temperatures boosted electricity demand for air conditioning. In addition, low hydro availability and supply constraints in the two largest markets--China and India—increased coal imports.

Prices are projected to decline from current elevated levels as China is expected to reduce coal imports by stimulating domestic production, as well as by lowering the share of coal in energy consumption. Upside risks include continued strong growth in electricity demand in other emerging markets that will be met to some extent by coal. Production shortfalls in China and India could also raise import demand and support prices.
 

Global solidarity to finance the Sustainable Development Goals

Jeffrey D. Sachs's picture

Achieving sustainable development depends on incremental investments in six priority transformations: building human capacities (health, education, new job skills); decarbonising energy; promoting sustainable agriculture and biodiversity; building smarter cities; implementing the circular economy; and harnessing the digital revolution. As such, sustainable development and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in particular pose a financing challenge. There are three distinct financing conundrums to solve: financing complex infrastructure, financing public services and amenities, and shifting investments from unsustainable to sustainable technologies. I discuss these in turn.

Pumped up? Prospects for oil markets in 2019

Peter Nagle's picture

This blog is the second in a series of ten blogs on commodity market developments, elaborating on themes discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook. Earlier blogs are here.

Recent Developments and Forecasts

Oil prices have been volatile in 2018, with the price of Brent, the international barometer, ranging from $63/bbl to $86/bbl. Prices have been buffeted by an array of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, notably supply disruptions in Venezuela, and the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions against Iran. These factors supported prices this year, particularly in September and October; however, prices fell sharply in early November as fears of a supply shortfall receded after the United States announced temporary waivers to its sanctions on Iran for eight countries, as well as stronger-than-expected U.S. oil production.

Helping poor women grow their businesses with mobile savings, training, and something more?

Mayra Buvinic's picture

Growing a business is not easy, and for women firm owners the challenges can be acute, especially when they are poor and run subsistence level firms. In developing countries, 22 percent of women discontinue their established businesses due to a lack of funds, and women are more likely than men to report exiting their businesses over finance problems, according to the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. Meanwhile, personal savings are a crucial source of entrepreneurial financing, and nearly 95 percent of entrepreneurs globally state that they used their own funds to start or scale up their businesses. Women, however, face unique constraints in accumulating savings to invest in growing their firms.
 

Photo credit: Marijo Silva and the “She Counts” global platform.

Corporate tax avoidance in an era of changing firms

Davida Connon's picture

It is widely accepted that corporate tax avoidance is commonplace, but experts disagree over the precise amount of tax that corporations successfully avoid. One estimate for 2012 suggests that 50 percent of all foreign income of multinationals is reported in jurisdictions with an effective tax rate below 5 percent; another suggests it’s more like 40 percent. The OECD estimates that governments worldwide are missing out on anything between four and ten percent of global corporate income tax revenue every year, or US$100–$240 billion. While the accounting varies, one fact is clear:  there is an unacceptable level of corporate tax avoidance, no matter how you do the math. 

For better returns on development investments, we need a better market

Jorge Moreira da Silva's picture

Financing for development is not a cost, it is an investment. An investment in sustainable cities, quality education, access to healthcare, decent jobs, efficient and responsible agriculture, and ending extreme poverty. In 2015, we recognized that the size of the investment needed to achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals is greater than aid alone can provide. The Addis Ababa Action Agenda called on both public and private actors to use aid, taxation, investment, remittances, philanthropy and innovative financing. This amounts to trillions of dollars in financing of all kinds, which needs to be targeted more strategically to where they are most needed.

Increasing performance transparency! Generating citizen participation! Improving local government! It's SUPERMUN

Marcus Holmlund's picture

Running a local government is not sexy. It’s making sure that roads are maintained, there is water to drink, health clinics are stocked and staffed, and schools are equipped to teach. Often, it means doing these things with limited resources, infrastructure, and manpower. With few exceptions, there is little fanfare and glamour. It’s a bit like being a soccer referee: you’re doing a good job when no one notices you’re there.

Making room for Africa's urban billion

Sebastian Kriticos's picture

By 2050, more than a billion people will be living in African cities and towns. As more and more of the continent’s population – 60 percent of whom live in the countryside – move to urban areas, pressures on land can only intensify. How should we make room for this massive urban expansion? How will city structures have to change to accommodate Africa’s urban billion? And could well-directed policy help spring African cities out of the low-development trap? These questions were at the core of discussions at the World Bank’s 5th  Urbanisation and Poverty Reduction research conference on September 6th 2018.

Releasing the 2017 Global Findex microdata

Leora Klapper's picture

It’s financial inclusion week—a series of events exploring "the most pressing actions needed to advance financial inclusion globally"—making this a perfect time to launch the 2017 Global Findex microdata.

In April, we released country-level indicators on account ownership, digital savings, savings, credit, and financial resilience. Now comes the microdata – individual-level survey responses from roughly 150,000 adults living in more than 140 economies globally.

What’s new in social protection – November edition

Ugo Gentilini's picture

Can cash transfers increase voting in elections? An upcoming article by Conover et al estimates that participation of Colombia’s Familias en Accion conditional cash transfer (CCT) program increases the probability that women cast a ballot by 2.8% (and women are more likely to vote for the incumbent candidate who supported the CCT).

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