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The growing economic clout of the biggest emerging markets in five charts

Ayhan Kose's picture

Global economic growth is accelerating. After registering the slowest pace since the 2007-2009 financial crisis in 2016, global growth is expected to rise to a 2.7 percent pace this year and 2.9 percent over 2018-19.

While much has been said about better economic news from the major advanced economies, the seven largest emerging market economies—call them the Emerging Market Seven, or EM7 – have been the main drivers of this anticipated pickup.

Chart 1:

The contribution of the seven largest emerging market economies to global output has climbed substantially over the last quarter century.

The EM7 -- Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey – accounted for 24 percent of global economic output over 2010-2016, up from 14 percent in 1990s. Although this is a smaller share than the Group of Seven major industrialized economies, the G7’s portion of global economic output has narrowed to 48 percent from 60 percent over the same time frame.
 

Contribution to global output (percent)

Fredo or Michael? Parents play favorites among siblings

Shwetlena Sabarwal's picture

In The Godfather II, Vito Corleone chooses his younger son, Michael, instead of his older son, Fredo, as his successor. This decision is based on Michael's intelligence and ability. Fredo, who is considered weak, is dismissed to do more menial tasks for the family. This has huge implications for Michael, Fredo, and the Corleone saga. 


CC (The Godfather) Image courtesy of Insomnia Cured Here on Flickr

What makes parents decide to "invest" in one child over another? In economics, a key idea is that parents either reinforce or compensate for children’s endowments, such as health or intelligence. They reinforce by investing more in the human capital of their better-endowed children. Or they compensate by investing more in their worse-endowed children to reduce inequality among siblings. The core notion is : either parents are striving for equity (the compensating strategy) or efficiency (the reinforcing strategy of Vito Corleone).

Investment slump clouds growth prospects

Franziska Ohnsorge's picture

Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has tumbled from 10 percent in 2010 to 3.4 percent in 2015 and was below its long-term average in nearly 70 percent of emerging an developing economies in 2015. This slowing trend is expected to persist, and is occurring despite large unmet investment needs, including substantial gaps in infrastructure, education, and health systems.

A review of How China Escaped the Poverty Trap by Yuen Yuen Ang

Yongmei Zhou's picture

We chose to highlight this book for the World Development Report (WDR) 2017 Seminar Series as its focus on institutional functions rather than forms and on adaptation resonates strongly with the upcoming WDR 2017.

The first takeaway of the book, that a poor country can harness the institutions they have and get development going is a liberating message. Nations don’t have to be stuck in the “poor economies and weak institutions” trap.  This provocative message challenges our prevailing practice of assessing a country’s institutions by their distance from the global best practice and ranking them on international league tables. Yuen Yuen’s work, in contrast, highlights the possibility of using existing institutions to generate inclusive growth and further impetus for institutional evolution.

International trade and integration: The latest research

Alejandro Forero's picture

What’s the latest research in international trade and integration? Researchers from the World Bank, the IMF and the WTO recently gathered for a one-day workshop to present their latest research on the topic. The papers presented addressed topical questions in areas as diverse as the links between trade, wage inequality and the poor, global value chains, non-tariff measures, preferential trade agreements, FDI restrictions, and migration. We provide a quick roundup on the papers presented during the workshop.

Is it harder for children from poor families in rural China to attain education?

Yan Sun's picture
China has achieved unparalleled success in economic growth and poverty reduction since initiating market reform in 1978. But in recent decades, increasing inequality has become a central policy issue (Figure 1), and the goal of ‘harmonious development’ has become a focus of Chinese policy makers. It remains a challenge for China to share its prosperity more equitably.
 
Figure 1: Poverty and inequality in rural China

How has China moved-up the global value chains?

Hiau Looi Kee's picture
The last few decades have witnessed the rise of global value chains (GVC), with factories being set up in the faraway countries, such as China, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Mexico, producing and shipping products for the US and EU markets.  Typically, being part of a GVC entails firms importing materials and intermediate products for further processing before exporting to other countries.  This implies that, together with the engagement of GVCs, these countries most likely face the inevitable decline in their domestic value added embedded in their exports (see Figure 1).  In other words, less value

When China met Africa

Tehmina S. Khan's picture
China’s expanding presence in Sub-Saharan Africa has been a major catalyst for growth in the region. Contrary to widespread opinion, its engagement covers all aspects of development. Stronger domestic policies will help countries in the region increase the gains from this growing partnership.

On booms and super-cycles: China and India's central role in global commodity markets

John Baffes's picture
Global commodity prices underwent an exceptionally strong and sustained boom beginning in 2000. Unlike a typical price cycle, this boom has been characterized as a “super cycle”, i.e., a demand-driven surge in commodity prices lasting possibly decades rather than years. Many researchers say this is the fourth “super cycle” of the past 150 years. The price super cycle has been attributed to strong growth in emerging markets.

Are China’s rural children able to rise above their station in life?

Yan Sun's picture
Although China has experienced extraordinary economic growth and poverty reduction over the last few decades, growing inequality has become a key concern. Did economic reforms expand equality of economic opportunities in rural China, or generate inequality? In a recent paper (WPS7316), Shahe Emran and I investigate the equality of opportunity in rural China from the approach of intergenerational mobility.

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