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Latin America & Caribbean

Capital account liberalization and controls: Structural or cyclical policy tools?

Poonam Gupta's picture

Capital flows to emerging market economies are deemed volatile, driven more by external than domestic factors. Surges in capital flows often generate macroeconomic imbalances in emerging markets, resulting in rapid credit growth, asset price inflation, and economic overheating. Reversals are disruptive too, often causing financial volatility, economic slowdown, and in some cases distress in the banking and corporate sectors.

Bank ownership: Trends and implications

Bob Cull's picture

In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), many wondered whether the strong pre-crisis trend toward greater internationalization in banking would be reversed and, more immediately, whether local state-owned banks had to assume a larger role in restoring banking stability and ensuring the delivery of credit. We revisit those conjectures in the light of new data on bank ownership and research on the post-Crisis period (Cull, Martinez Peria, and Verrier, 2018).

Gathering momentum: Growth prospects in Latin America and the Caribbean in five charts

Dana Vorisek's picture
A cyclical growth recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean began in 2017. The upturn in regional growth, from -1.5 percent in 2016 to 0.9 percent in 2017, reflects broadly improving conditions in Brazil, which emerged from a deep, two-year-long recession in the first half of the year, and in Argentina, where growth rebounded after contracting in 2016. The outlook for accelerating regional growth is supported by strengthening private consumption and investment, particularly in commodity exporting countries. Domestic demand is expected to respond favorably to strengthening confidence, relatively low inflation, and global financing conditions that, while somewhat tighter, are still supportive.

Real activity indicators in Brazil improved markedly in 2017 

Brazil’s recovery is expected to solidify in 2018. The economy is anticipated to grow 2 percent as improving labor conditions and low inflation support private consumption, and as policy conditions become more supportive of investment.
 
Industrial Production and Retail Trade, Brazil
Sources: Haver Analytics, World Bank.
Notes: Lines show 3-month moving averages using non-seasonally-adjusted data. Last observation is October 2017.

Test for what and what to test

Rafael de Hoyos's picture

“If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it” Lord Kelvin  

Despite the recent proliferation of standardized testing in education, there is still a significant number of countries that oppose it. I’ve heard many arguments against standardized testing from policy makers, teachers and school directors, but two of them seem persuasive at first glance. The first one is that the test’s main purpose is to hold teachers and school directors accountable, that is, to reward and punish them based on students’ performance and—per tests’ opponents—this is unfair. The second is that since standardized testing assesses few subject areas, it redistributes attention and resources to these subjects in detriment of other equally important areas of the curriculum. These are valid points, but, as I argue below, they do not justify incurring the very high cost of not testing.

How teaching with the test (not to the test) improves learning

Rafael de Hoyos's picture

“Test and punish”?

There’s a debate raging in American schools today: how (and how much) should children be tested?

The No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act created a system where all children in all schools from grades 3 to 8 must be tested each year. Critics refer to this accountability architecture as “test and punish,” with stakes such as school funding (or closings!), bonuses for teachers, or grade promotion for students all riding on performance. There is evidence that NCLB improved learning outcomes, but improvements came at a high cost: In addition to teaching to the test, this approach can lead to a number of perverse incentives, like keeping weaker students at home on test day, narrowing the curriculum, or downright cheating. Worse, some have said they can serve to mask and contribute to the structural race and class inequalities in the United States.

Rejuvenating regionalism

Aaditya Mattoo's picture

Regionalism can have three dimensions:  trade integration, regulatory cooperation and infrastructural coordination.  In a thought provoking blog, Shanta Devarajan argues for a drastic shift in focus, away from trade and towards infrastructure.

Regional trade agreements do sometimes divert not just trade but attention from other beneficial forms of cooperation.  And what type of integration makes economic and political sense, in what sequence, differs across regions. But it would be wrong to exclude trade, to focus only on one dimension, and to ignore important new constraints and old questions.

Global Economic Prospects in 10 Charts: June 2017

Ayhan Kose's picture
Also available in: Chinese

The World Bank forecasts that global economic growth will strengthen to 2.7 percent in 2017 as a pickup in manufacturing and trade, rising market confidence, and stabilizing commodity prices allow growth to resume in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies.  Growth in advanced economies is expected to accelerate to 1.9 percent in 2017, a benefit to their trading partners. Amid favorable global financing conditions and stabilizing commodity prices, growth in emerging market and developing economies as a whole will pick up to 4.1 percent this year from 3.5 percent in 2016. Nevertheless, substantial risks cloud the outlook. These include the possibility of greater trade restriction, uncertainty about trade, fiscal and monetary policy, and, over the longer term, persistently weak productivity and investment growth.

Download the June 2017 Global Economic Prospects report.
 
Global growth is projected to strengthen to 2.7 percent in 2017, as expected. Emerging market and developing economies are anticipated to grow 4.1 percent – faster than advanced economies.
 
Global Growth

Falling inequality: A Brazilian whodunnit

Francisco Ferreira's picture

Long one of the world’s most unequal countries, Brazil surprised pundits by recording a massive reduction in household income inequality in the last couple of decades. Between 1995 and 2012, the country’s Gini coefficient for household incomes fell by seven points, from 0.59 to 0.52. (For comparison, all of the inequality increase in the United States between 1967 and 2011 amounted to eight Gini points – according to this study.)

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