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The World Region

Global Economic Prospects January 2016: Regional integration and spillovers

Derek H. C. Chen's picture
A key risk to global growth in 2016 is that a number of emerging markets slow simultaneously. Following a decade of deepening integration among emerging markets and developing countries, weakness in a few major emerging markets could spread to set back activity across the emerging market and developing country world. The January 2016 Global Economic Prospects report examines regional integration and the possibility of spillovers from growth shocks at the global and regional level.

Global economic prospects: sluggish emerging market activity to weigh on global growth in 2016

Carlos Arteta's picture

Global economic growth is projected to pick up modestly in 2016 to 2.9 percent after a disappointing 2015, the January 2016 Global Economic Prospects report says.  Growth slowed last year to a 2.4 percent rate, 0.4 percentage points below earlier projections, amid falling commodity prices and weak flows of trade and capital.

Growth is expected to edge up this year as advanced economies grow more solidly, commodity prices stabilize, China continues to gradually rebalance its economy and global financial conditions remain benign despite rising United States interest rates.  Even so, the forecast is lower than projections of six months ago, principally due to the simultaneous slowdown in major emerging market economies.
 

Demography should guide policies in the world’s centers of poverty and fragility

Hans Lofgren's picture
What role could demographic policy play in the countries with the highest poverty rates and the lowest level of human development, which often also suffer most from conflict and violence? A crucial role.

This is a key message in the Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016 – Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change, recently issued by the World Bank and the IMF. The countries in this category are labeled “pre-dividend,” (see Figure 1); two thirds of the world’s countries most affected by fragility, conflict and violence belong to this group.

Figure 1. Global Monitoring Report Demographic Country Typology: Pre-dividend countries.
Source: World Bank. 2015. Global Monitoring Report.

The international poverty line has just been raised to $1.90 a day, but global poverty is basically unchanged. How is that even possible?

Francisco Ferreira's picture

World Bank researchers have been trying to assess the extent of extreme poverty across the world since 1979 and more systematically since the World Development Report 1990, which introduced the dollar-a-day international poverty line. From the beginning, the idea was to measure income poverty with respect to a demanding line which, first, reflects the standards of absolute poverty in the world’s poorest countries and, second, corresponded to the same real level of well-being in all countries. The first requirement led researchers to anchor the international poverty line on the national poverty lines of very poor developing countries. And the second requirement led them to use purchasing power parity exchange rates (PPPs) – rather than nominal ones - to convert the line into the US dollar and, more importantly, into the currencies of each developing country.

The road not shared: Turning to the arts to help increase pedestrian safety

Patrick Kabanda's picture

The Creative Wealth of Nations is a series of blogs related to Patrick Kabanda's forthcoming book on the performing arts in development.

It was a scene I still can’t forget.
 
A few years ago on a busy Kampala intersection, cars zoomed by while pedestrians braced themselves to cross a road. They lurched back and forth, like a fence being blown hither and tither by heavy winds. In frustration, a voice of a woman with a baby tucked on her back cried out: senga no wabawo atusasira. “I wish someone would be kind to us.”

Inclusive growth for shared prosperity

Vinaya Swaroop's picture
Announced in April 2013, the twin global goals of the World Bank – eliminating extreme poverty by 2030 and boosting shared prosperity – have become the guiding principles of its development work.  While reducing poverty has always anchored the Bank’s work, the goal of boosting shared prosperity – measured by the income of the bottom 40 percent – is new.

We need to move from arbitrary crisis response to systematic risk management: A perspective from WDR 2014

Norman Loayza's picture

An old proverb cautions that “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” There is a lot of truth to this: interventions to prevent infectious disease and infant malnutrition have repeatedly been estimated to have very high returns, with benefit-cost ratios as high as 15 to 1.

The proverb also applies outside health. Time and again, failure to prevent and prepare has tragic and costly consequences—economic and financial crises, natural disasters, ruinous health outcomes, social unrest—that often could have been avoided at moderate cost. In 2010, an earthquake in Haiti cost more than 220,000 lives, while one of much larger magnitude in Chile produced about 500 fatalities. Chile’s enforcement of building codes appears to account for much of the difference.

Inequality of What?

Francisco Ferreira's picture

More than ten years ago Ronald Inglehart, of the University of Michigan, and his team at the World Values Survey asked thousands of respondents around the world to rate their views, on a scale of 1 to 10, on whether they felt inequality in their countries should go up or down.  The way they phrased the question was that 1 corresponded to full agreement with the statement that “incomes should be made more equal”, whereas 10 stood for “we need larger income differences as incentives for individual effort”.

Ask Your Questions As We Live Blog From the ABCDE Next Monday and Tuesday

Claudia Sepúlveda's picture

We will be live blogging and Tweeting during the keynote presentations on both days of the World Bank's Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics (ABCDE) this coming Monday and Tuesday (May 7-8). 

Hernando de Soto of the Institute for Liberty and Democracy (Peru) will be speaking on Monday @ 9am (EST) on 'Live, Dead, and Fictitious Capital' and Timothy Besley of the London School of Economics (UK) will be speaking on Tuseday @ 9am (EST) on 'Transparency and Accountability: Interpreting the Evidence.'

We're keen on your receiving your questions, so be sure to send them our way through the World Bank Live platform.

Please also visit the ABCDE 2012 Website for the full agenda, working papers, and other materials. Also, follow us on Twitter @ABCDEwb and use #wblive or #ABCDE to join the live discussion.

Look forward to seeing you online!

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