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The World Region

Where commodity prices are going, explained in nine charts

John Baffes's picture
The most recent World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts commodities prices to level off next year after big gains for industrial commodities—energy and metals—in 2017. Commodity prices appear to be stabilizing after a boom that peaked in 2011, albeit at a higher average level than pre-boom.
 
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Energy and fertilizer prices rose in October, raw materials and precious metals fell – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices increased more than 3 percent in October, a fourth consecutive monthly gain, led by a strengthening in oil, according to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet.

Agriculture prices edged lower in the month, as raw materials declined, notably natural rubber, which tumbled 12 percent. Food and beverage prices changed little. Fertilizer prices climbed over 5 percent, helped by a 12 percent jump in urea.

Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics (ABCDE) - Call for papers

Claudia Sepúlveda's picture

The Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics (ABCDE), organized by the World Bank’s Development Economics (DEC) Vice Presidency, is one of the world's leading conference series promoting the exchange of innovate and leading research among researchers, policymakers, and development practitioners.

“Nudge units” – where they came from and what they can do

Zeina Afif's picture

You could say that the first one began in 2009, when the US government recruited Cass Sunstein to head The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) to streamline regulations. In 2010, the UK established the first Behavioural Insights Unit (BIT) on a trial basis, under the Cabinet Office. Other countries followed suit, including the US, Australia, Canada, Netherlands, and Germany. Shortly after, countries such as India, Indonesia, Peru, Singapore, and many others started exploring the application of behavioral insights to their policies and programs. International institutions such as the World Bank, UN agencies, OECD, and EU have also established behavioral insights units to support their programs. And just this month, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland launched its own Behavioral Economics Unit.

Financial globalization: A glass half empty?

Sergio Schmukler's picture

For many years, financial globalization has been promoted as a vehicle to raise living standards throughout the world, particularly in developing countries. However, a mounting body of empirical literature shows that in practice the effects of financial globalization have been overall mixed; financial globalization has only brought limited positive effects while it has also increased risks.

Against the tide: A look at the countries where poverty has been on the rise, despite falling global numbers

Francisco Ferreira's picture

The last quarter century saw remarkable progress against extreme poverty, globally. Between 1990 and 2013, the percentage of the world’s population living at or under $1.90/day fell from 35.3% to 10.7% - that is, from more than one in three people to approximately one in ten, planet-wide. Even in the shorter period between 2002 and 2013, the reduction was from 25.8% to 10.7%, meaning that about 850 million people moved out of extreme poverty during that decade alone.

The 2017 global poverty update from the World Bank

Francisco Ferreira's picture
This year’s global poverty update from the World Bank is a minor one. Until reference year 2008, the World Bank published new poverty estimates every three years, and between 2010 and 2013 we released new numbers every year (see here).

Trade agreements as public goods

Aaditya Mattoo's picture

If a trade economist were abruptly woken up by somebody shouting, “preferential trade agreements” (PTAs), their first thought is likely to be “trade creation among participants and trade diversion away from those left out.” That is a measure of the influence of Jacob Viner’s classic book The Customs Union Issue on the profession, on the policy debate and on our attitude towards PTAs.
 
Brexit and the renegotiation of NAFTA have renewed interest in the impact of trade agreements and the consequences of undoing them.  In a recent paper, Mattoo, Mulabdic and Ruta (2017) and column (VOXEU), we use new information on the content of PTAs to examine their trade effects.

A richer array of international poverty lines

Francisco Ferreira's picture

Is poverty absolute or relative? When we think of (one-dimensional) income poverty, should we define the threshold that separates the poor from the non-poor as the cost of purchasing a fixed basket of goods and services that allows people to meet their basic needs?  Or should we instead think of it as relative deprivation: as earning or consuming less than some given proportion of the country’s average living standard?

A celebration of Richard Thaler’s Nobel Prize and a new field – Behavioral Development Economics

Karla Hoff's picture

Could a parent’s decision to vaccinate a child depend on a free bag of lentils?  The premise seems implausible:immunization can be a matter of life and death, and a bag of lentils is worth only a dollar.  Yet a randomized controlled trial in India showed that a gift to parents of a 1 kg bag of lentils and a set of plates can dramatically raise the percentage of children protected against major disease (Banerjee et al. 2010).  Providing a quality immunization camp alone increased the percentage of fully immunized children from 6% to 18%.  The addition of the lentil and plate ‘incentives’ raised the figure to a whopping 39%.  How can we explain the outsize effect of a gift of everyday household items?

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