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The Middle East and North Africa outlook in five charts: Recovery after a weak 2017

Lei Sandy Ye's picture
Also available in: Français | العربية
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa region is estimated to have slowed sharply in 2017 and is forecast to recover to 3 percent in 2018. Regional activity is anticipated to strengthen gradually over the medium term in response to policy reforms and easing fiscal adjustments. A number of downside risks continue to cloud the outlook for the region, including geopolitical tensions and conflict, weakness in oil prices, and obstacles to reform progress. These are only partly offset by the possibility of stronger-than-expected Euro Area activity.
Regional growth tumbled last year, led by oil exporters

Growth in the Middle East and North Africa is estimated to have slowed sharply to 1.8 percent in 2017 from 5 percent the year before, driven by decline in growth among oil exporters. Growth declined among Gulf Cooperation Council and non-GCC oil exporters, with oil production cuts and continued geopolitical tensions contributing to the fall-off.

What triggered the oil price plunge of 2014-2016 and why it failed to deliver an economic impetus in eight charts

Marc Stocker's picture
Also available in: Español

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

The 2014-16 collapse in oil prices was driven by a growing supply glut, but failed to deliver the boost to global growth that many had expected. In the event, the benefits of substantially lower oil prices were muted by the low responsiveness of economic activity in key oil-importing emerging markets, the effects on U.S. activity of a sharp contraction in energy investment and an abrupt slowdown in key oil exporters. 

Biggest drop in oil prices in modern history

Between mid-2014 and early 2016, the global economy faced one of the largest oil price declines in modern history. The 70 percent price drop during that period was one of the three biggest declines since World War II, and the longest lasting since the supply-driven collapse of 1986.

Real oil prices
Source: World Bank.
Notes: Real oil prices are calculated as the nominal price deflated by the international manufacturers unit value index, in which 100=2010. World Bank crude oil average. Last observation is November 2017.

Commodity prices come tumbling down

John Baffes's picture
Most commodity prices fell in the third quarter of 2015 as a result of abundant supplies and weak demand, leading to a further downward revision in price forecasts for 2015 and 2016.

Our quarterly Commodities Markets Outlook report analyzes markets for major commodities groups and forecasts prices for 46 commodities from bananas to zinc. The price declines are part of a five-year-long commodities slump.

The impact of low oil prices in Sub-Saharan Africa

Gerard Kambou's picture
Growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2014, after moderating in 2013, but remained weaker than during the pre-crisis years. It softened around the turn of the year owing to headwinds from the plunge in the price of oil. Sub-Saharan Africa’s oil exporters, which account for nearly half of the region’s aggregate output, have been hit hard by the sharp decline in the price of oil. From June 2014 to January 2015, oil prices fell by nearly 50 percent, and have remained low despite the recent uptick.        

Save first, then spend: history’s lessons on the influence of low oil prices on global growth

Marc Stocker's picture
The impact of falling oil prices is becoming increasingly visible, but the global economy is yet to hit a nice stride - oil exporters face severe headwinds, oil-importing China continues to slow, other large oil-importing countries have seen mixed developments since the start of 2015, and financial market volatility has increased.

How Might Japan’s Natural Disaster Affect the Energy Sector?

Ioannis N Kessides's picture

Photo: istockphoto.comIt is still too early to estimate with much precision the quantitative impacts of the devastating events in Japan on the global energy sector, as well as the effects on energy and economic activity in Japan. Nevertheless, some qualitative conclusions can be drawn about the near and medium effects on Japanese and global energy balances. Much more difficult and speculative are judgments about the effect of the nuclear accident that resulted from the natural disaster on the longer-term energy picture.